Posted on 07/29/2002 1:27:25 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's job approval rating is now at 69%. This does not represent a dramatic change. Bush was within one point of this reading in early June, and was at a statistically close 73% in the last Gallup poll, conducted July 9-11. But the current 69% reading has a certain symbolic importance since it's the first time the president's job approval rating has fallen below 70% in the 10-plus months since Sept. 11. We have to go back to 1963-1964 to find the last time that a president maintained a 70% or higher rating for 10 or more months (Lyndon B. Johnson).
The graph above outlines the pattern in Bush's job approval ratings quite clearly. His average rating was in the 50% range through early September of last year when the events of Sept. 11 vaulted his ratings up by 30 points and more, culminating in the 90% rating of Sept. 21-22 (the highest job approval rating recorded in Gallup Poll history). Since that time, Bush's ratings have taken a gradual slide to the current 69%. Disapproval of the job Bush is doing is now at 24%.
It is interesting to compare Bush the son's ratings with those of his father. President George H.W. Bush reached what was at that point the highest rating in Gallup Poll history (89%) in late February/early March 1991, at the climax of the Persian Gulf War. The elder Bush's ratings began to drop at a more accelerated pace than has been the case with his son. Ten months after his high point, the senior Bush's ratings had fallen below 50%. George W. Bush's ratings 10 months after Sept. 11 are thus more than 20 points higher than were his father's at the comparable point in time some 11 years ago.
Bush's average job approval rating for 2002 so far, 77%, is extraordinarily high, exceeded only by the 85% averaged by President Harry S. Truman in 1945 (Truman took over for Franklin D. Roosevelt in April of that year and was thus in office as Americans rejoiced over the end of World War II in Europe in May and in the Pacific in September).
Regression to the Mean?
There is a general pattern in statistics (and in life) by which any extreme value on continuous measures will tend to "regress" back to the mean or average for that distribution over time. The average job approval rating for all presidents since Truman has been about 56%, which underscores how unusual it is to have job approval ratings in the 70s, 80s and 90s. When any president in the short term has extremely high or low scores on the job approval distribution, it is to be expected that the basic forces at play within the American attitudinal landscape will tend to pull that score back toward the middle as the months go by.
One of the specific factors that results in job approval scores in the middle of the 0 to 100 scale is the natural tendency for a president to be favored by those in his own party, and disfavored by those in the opposing party. Everything else being equal, Democratic presidents will get very high approval ratings from Democrats across the country, more mid-range approval ratings from independents, and lower ratings from Republicans. The opposite pattern occurs when a Republican is in the White House. Unusually low and unusually high job approval ratings occur when either the members of a president's own party begin to sour on him or, conversely, when members of the opposite party overcome their natural antipathy and approve of the job he is doing.
Bush's very high ratings after Sept. 11 occurred because -- coupled with almost unanimous job approval from Republicans -- Bush received very high approval numbers from independents and Democrats.
Now, we are seeing the more natural pattern setting in again, as the approval ratings Bush is receiving from independents and, more specifically, Democrats begin to settle back down to their more "natural" levels. At the same time, as can be seen in the chart below, Republicans remain nearly unanimous in their approval of the job he is doing.
Several points are worth noting.
The gender gap, for the moment, is virtually non-existent. Women, who in the past have been considerably less likely to approve of Republican presidents than men have been, are now very similar to men in their approval of Bush. Whites are much more likely to approve of the job Bush is doing than are nonwhites, which is a typical pattern (nonwhites are strongly more Democratic in orientation than are whites). The president gets his lowest approval numbers in the Eastern portion of the country. Americans with $30,000 or more in household income, and those who own stock, are more likely to approve of the job Bush is doing than are those with lower incomes and those who do not own stock.
Americans Indicate in Their Own Words Why They Approve or Disapprove
We asked respondents in our latest poll, conducted July 22-24, to indicate in their own words why they approved or disapproved of the job George W. Bush is doing as president, as we have done three other times since Bush took office in early 2001.
The categorized responses to this question for the 693 poll respondents who approve of the job Bush is doing are presented below, with a comparison to previous trends.
The biggest change in these patterns came after Sept. 11, as we would expect. Prior to that date, Americans who approved of Bush made more references to specific personal qualities and leadership. By last May, some eight months after Sept. 11, 16% of responses mentioned 9/11 specifically.
Now, in the July 22-24 poll, about 13% of respondents who approve of Bush's job performance continue to mention 9/11 as their reason. Otherwise, approval is based on a general agreement with his performance, appreciation for his values and moral character, his approach to his job, his leadership, and his foreign policy, among others.
One of the most noticeable patterns here is the increase in those who disapprove of Bush because of his handling of the economy -- a number that is now at 14%. (Note that this does not mean that only 14% disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy, but that 14% of those who disapprove of Bush's job performance in general mention the economy as their reason.) Another 8% now mention that they disapprove because of Bush's ties to the rich and big business. About 14% still talk about his handling of Sept. 11 as the reason they disapprove.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 national adults, 18 and older, conducted July 22-24, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For results based on the sample of -- 693 -- adults who approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of -- 253 -- adults who disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For details and graphs, click here.
What rubbish.
Bush's ratings, by any historical standard, are still sky-high. Upper 60s sounds pretty good to me. His numbers were bound to slowly edged down somewhat as memories of 9/11 fade. That's only natural.
But it is driving the DemocRATs nuts to keep watching his numbers remain high. Fall elections will be interesting.
NOW, let me be the first to warn that "popularity" with the President does not automatically translate into votes, either for him or the party, but I think you could safely predict that if EVEN HALF of those "non-whites" voted for him, it would represent a 100% increase over the election---a stunning achievement in anyone's political dictionary.
Are they a member of FR? :)
This result clearly makes no sense. People that own stock are more likely to approve of the job Bush is doing??? But I thought the press are telling us that Bush is responsible for the stock market drop and corporate woes -- his ties to big business and big oil, and all that. If that is the case, how can folks who own stock still be supporting him?? Obviously there must be something very wrong with the results of the poll.
< sarcasm >
You noticed that too huh??
That's because Bush 43 has connected with Americans much better than Bush 41. It's also the reason that Bush will still have approval ratings in the 60s come November, and possibly even higher. The economy isn't going to slip into a depression as Democrats hope. GDP growth will rebound to about 3.5% this fall. Bush will say that GDP growth was negative last summer and then his tax cuts went into effect and we now have good economic growth-- which can be even better if voters send him a cooperative senate.
Remember how Big Media reported on the stock market dropping during one of the President's talks? Yesterday, in the Washington Times mentioned that on the day that the Sarbanes bill passed, the S&P 500 dropped something like 3.4%. How come Big Media isn't broadcasting that?
Not bad......
Presidential Job Approval, 1945 to 2002
not bad either.....
George W. Bush’s Job Approval Rating: By Party
And where is the supposed erosion among conservatives. W has a 96% approval rate among Republicans. He even has a 49% approval rate among RATS!
And among stock owners he has a 74% approval rating, while only a 61% approval among notn stock owners. So much for the stock market having a huge effect on him.
The right track-wrong track poll numbers in Nov. 1998 were 59-37 right track to wrong track. 61% of right trackers voted Democrap and 69% of wrong trackers voted GOP. I expect the right track number to rebound from its current 40% vs. 42% (Hart & Teeter poll for NBC News/ WSJ for 7/19-21/02); the July consumer confidence number rebounded the last two weeks of July from where it was the first two weeks by this fall. There is plenty of time between now for the value to go up to the recent January 62% number-- especially once Bush signs the Sarbanes corporate reform bill in a Rose Garden ceremony more resplendent than even the tax cut signing and once August 15 gets here and voters have confidence in corporate earnings reports.
I'm honestly not worried right now about the midterms.
The real value of that number for the GOP is disaffection among minority voters. Democraps win minority votes through scare tactics. If minority voters aren't scared that Bush will come by their house and lynch them-- as Al Gore/Jesse Jackson/Julian Bond said he would-- then they won't be so motivated to vote this fall. That helps the GOP because their share of the vote goes up as the number of minority voters voting drops. A 48% heart-breaking loss turns into a 51% win by a nose-- even though in both cases the GOP candidate won the same number of total votes.
A poll is a "snapshot" and has more to do with WHEN they are taken. For example, if they are taken in the few days after two huge drops on Wall street they are very likely to get lower numbers.
That's not how I read the article. I think you are the one who is spinning what this article is about! It explains in the very first paragraph how the 3% decline is not a dramatic change. Rather the article is explaining the reasons for Bush's gradual decline from 90% to 69% (21 percentage points), which is significant. Sure, 69% approval is still fantastic. But that doesn't mean Gallup can't poll those 21% who have pulled back their support, to see why that is so.
Can't recall the source, but I remember reading (maybe here on FR) that only three midterm elections were held with Presidents holding over 60% approval ratings. The party in power lost 1 seat and 6 seats in two elections, and gained 3-4 in another. No matter how you slice that, Dick Gephardt's 40-seat gain would appear to be in a bit of trouble. :-)
I'm honestly not worried about the midterms right now.
I agree. As long as the stock market rebounds, even modestly, I think the GOP will do reasonably well.
Suppose the "pundits" in the media combined with the very vocal posters here cause us to think there are 'more of them' then there really are? Your data seems to suggest that.
Oh, absolutely, justshe. You can tell that the Bush hating posters here are small in number (but big in hot air) by the fact that the same few appear in nearly every thread they can to bash the President with the same tripe.
Thanks for the ping, Wphile. Wonder what the pundits will say if (or should I say when) the numbers go back over 70% because of the Wall Street rally, corporate arrests, and some major legislative victories?
Interesting (but not surprising)!
The president gets his lowest approval numbers in the Eastern portion of the country.
This surprised me! Not in the west? (California) Wow!
We'll see how ignorant I am after Nov. 7, 2004...and it's not that I want to see a Democrat in the W.H.; just that I felt that the Republicans should have fielded a REAL MAN for Commander-in- Chief last election!
That's as long as it lasted. It fell ten points by January 6, 1999.
Great minds think alike! LOL! As I read this I couldn't help but notice that #43's poll numbers are NEVER shown in comparison to x42's !!!
They did... aren't you glad. You should be happy now.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.