W'S HOLE CARD

New York Post ^ | 7/29/02 | JIM HOAGLAND

[kattracks]

July 29, 2002 -- GEORGE W. Bush's war on terrorism and Vladimir Putin's pursuit of entente with the West are the dominant and reinforcing influences in world politics today. They are combining to reshape the nature and future of global power, to the potential detriment of Europe.

[lentulusgracchus]

Hoagland would know what the view from Europe is like. He's attended enough Bilderberg Conferences.

Putin playing ball takes away the UN's dream of cornering the US on ICC.

British and Russian cooperation with the US would undermine the UN's pretensions to magisterium over multilateral relations and military action against actors like Saddam -- pretensions that X41 fed by appearing before the UN as a supplicant for the Security Council's letter of marque against Saddam. A letter, btw, that X41 later allowed to obstruct his opportunity to "finish the job".

If X41 had either unleashed TAC on the retreating Republican Guards (he had them so totally out in the open!), or unleashed the French to advance to Baghdad, Dubya and Putin wouldn't be having to have these conversations about Saddam.

So Putin is cooperating. Blair has some decisions to make about EU membership and his own goal of recruiting Bush to come into camp on an international, UN-led regime.

If Blair plays with us and the Russians, he doesn't have to lie down with kleptocratic Third World murderers and ex-terrorists and share their fleas. Can you imagine being policy buds with guys like Robert Mugabe?

[brat]

"Sept. 11, Bush has treated Russia as a more reliable partner than his European allies,"

Maybe its because they ARE more reliable than our so called European allies.

[meenie]

Meanwhile the reliable Russian bear continues to build on the nuclear program of Iran and backs the Palestinians. Sells their latest technology to China. They are s-o-o reliable.

[corlorde]

I'm sure there is a "financial" understanding between us and good ol` Russia.

Because peace is only possible between relative power equals who have something substantial to gain from each other by abstaining from conflict. We form our alliances based on mutual self-interest; when this ceases to hold, conflict arises. When the relationship of power is severely asymmetrical, it is in the interest of the stronger to conquer the weaker. The lion will never lie down with the lambs.

[section9]

Putin backs us for three reasons:

1. Russia has received guarantees from the U.S. Government that its petroleum concerns will be one of the first outfits let into a liberated Iraq.
2. Russia has received guarantees that she will recover her 8-12 billion dollars in loans to Baghdad.
3. Russia will continue to receive favorable treatment on trade from the United States itself.

All Putin has to do is stay out of the way and he'll be given a prominent role in the peace conference.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[BlueLancer]

"Meanwhile the reliable Russian bear continues to build on the nuclear program of Iran and backs the Palestinians. Sells their latest technology to China."

THAT sounds like an accurate description of the European Union and what they are doing in the same areas.

Russia's hole card is all of that oil in the ground that they are more than eager to develp and sell.
Europe's hole card is whine and French cheese.

"Gene, I'll take Russia to block, please."

[TomB]

Russia has a lot to gain from changes in the regiemes in Iran and Iraq. And the European leaders are only now starting to reaize this.

I wonder how the "dunce" Bush figured it out so much quicker that the European "sophisticates".

[bert]

2. Russia has received guarantees that she will recover her 8-12 billion dollars in loans to Baghdad.....

These loans are a very interesting study in how not to do business. The communist never learned the fundamental lesson that the most important part of any business transaction is getting paid.

The communists sold Saddam weapons on credit just like they sold every body else. The factories recieved a credit at the bank indicating an asset that collateralized further borrowings and manufacturing and foreign sales and more credits and more loans....a never ending circle. Russia was exporting its resources and collecting notes recievable denominated in local curriencies. The purchasers....Saddam, Assad et al never paid, even in their depreciating currencies.

When the Berlin fell, the debtor nations repuduated the debts and the Soviet economy could not withstand the strain and collapsed.

Ronald Regan knew they could not stand the economic pressure of competition or the repudiation of the weapons debt. He pressed both issues. The Russian bankers remember tho and given a chance to get some flesh off the bones of Saddam will do so.

[Redleg Duke]

It ia kinda neat how the worn-out whores of europe are being regulated to obscurity. I still hold out hope for the UK and Germany, but the rest, pfft!

[Tijeras_Slim]

"Russia is more eager, and more pliable, on security matters.

Can you also say more realistic?

[maica]

Ditto! How sweet it is!

[Mr. Bird]

To achieve durable global entente, Bush and Putin must update the central Cold War metaphor that portrayed Americans playing poker while Soviet officials played chess

What a snide dig! The underlying meaning, I suppose, is that the Soviets were smart, and we got lucky.

The amazing thing is that since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Europe and the American Media (representing US Liberal thought) have been wringing their hands over relations with Russia. Clinton had what was perceived as a US friend in Yeltsin, and a dedicated Russophile in Talbot, and they came away with nothing. Bush encountered the "hard liner" Putin, and has made inroads that will reshape global politics, largely to American benefit.

The European nightmare of irrelevancy is coming to fruition. The former "Second World" of the Eastern Bloc nations will now absorb Western Europe, with the possible exception of Great Britain. Over time, Russia's economy will expand with the help of the USA, and the "new world order" will rest on shaky relations between the Chinese and the Russian/American alliance. Europe will still be a decent place to vacation, I hope.

[RedBloodedAmerican]

They also know the Al Queda area better than our European allies.

[MoJo2001]

"Since Sept. 11, Bush has treated Russia as a more reliable partner than his European allies," says one senior European official. "Russia is more eager, and more pliable, on security matters. For Washington, the Europeans are too strong to be treated like Russia, but too weak to oppose American designs. We are bothersome in-betweens."

Damn!! Woohoo!! All this before a cup of Java!! Can you say IRRELEVANT?

[Eric in the Ozarks]

I guess I don't understand why Russia would be worried about a paltry $8-12 billion from Iraq when they poured ten times that much into Cuba without little in return.

[cactusSharp]

excellent post...laughed my coffee up

[freedomcrusader]

The difference is that there's no hope of getting anything from Cuba - Cuba doesn't sit on top of gobs of the world's perhaps most precious resource.

[lentulusgracchus]

- Cuba doesn't sit on top of gobs of the world's perhaps most precious resource.

Cuba had some oil production and refining before the revolution. There has been some Russian exploratory activity down there since, with some small shows. Against that is that Cuba is apparently composed of accreted exotic terrane (like Honduras and Nicaragua, which together are the Chortis Block, and Yucatan) and accretionary-prism material, which isn't the most fabulously prospective sort of terrane geologically.

Still worth poking around, though, if only because refining your own product locally is always a good deal.