Posted on 08/02/2002 3:06:56 PM PDT by Paul Ross
Reprinted from NewsMax.com
PLA Navy: From 'Green Water' to 'Blue Water' – Part II
Dr. Alexandr Nemets and Dr. Thomas TordaRead PLA Navy: From 'Green Water' to 'Blue Water' – Part I
Tuesday, July 30, 2002
New Purchases of Kilo Submarines and Sovremenny Destroyers From Russia
On Jan. 3, 2002, Rosoboronexport signed a contract with the Chinese for $1.4 billion for the construction of two Sovremenny-class destroyers for PLA needs. Let's look again at the Rosvoouruzheniye catalog (text is excerpted):
"Sovremenny Class is a Russian class of destroyers designed to engage hostile ships by means of missile attack, and to provide warships and transport ships with protection against ship and air attack. Intended primarily for anti-ship operations, it was designed to complement anti-submarine warfare (ASW) Udaloy destroyers (of a previous generation). The ships have anti-ship, anti-aircraft, anti-submarine and coastal bombardment capability. The ships, with a maximum displacement of 8,480 tons, are similar in size to the U.S. Navy's Aegis-equipped missile cruisers, and are armed with an anti-submarine helicopter, 48 air defense missiles, 8 anti-ship missile launchers, torpedoes, mines, long-range guns and a comprehensive electronic warfare system.
Unit Cost: $425 Million
Build Time: 15 Months" (end of description)
So, why is China paying Russia $700 million per destroyer?
According to the understanding of the authors, the major reasons are as follows:
Let's look for the details of these items.
According to Russia's Interfax agency (June 28), the Severnaya Verf (Northern Wharf) shipyard in Petersburg began building the first of two Sovremenny 956EM Project destroyers for China in June 2002. E and M in the project designation stand for "export" and "modernized." Construction of the second destroyer should start at the end of July. The two destroyers are to be completed and delivered to the customer in early 2006.
The ships were developed by the St. Petersburg-based Severnoye (Northern) Design Bureau. Several Russian shipyards competed for the contract, Baltiysky Zavod (St. Petersburg-based Baltic Shipbuilding Plant) and Severnaya Verf shipyards being the principal competitors. Eventually, the order was placed with Severnaya Verf, which was engaged in building two 956E destroyers for PLAN from 1997 to 2000.
The project 956EM destroyers will boast cutting-edge armament assets. This vessel has been designed for countering hostile surface ships and landing craft (its major duty), countering anti-aircraft and anti-missile defenses of combat and transportation ships, providing fire support to landing units, and patrolling and carrying out various missions as part of a formation or separately.
The 956EM destroyer is fitted with advanced missile and artillery assets and torpedo, radar and anti-submarine systems, as well as the Moskit supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. Length of the destroyer is 150m, and beam is 17m; it is capable of traveling at a speed of 34 knots (60 km per hour). (end of brief description)
Severnaya Verf, indeed, constructed for China two Sovremenny 956E destroyers in 1997-2000. Both destroyers – by 1997 – were about 40 percent ready. The Russian navy – the initial customer – terminated the order due to lack of funds. Severnaya Verf got the new order for the additional two destroyers, to be constructed from scratch, in terribly heavy competition with Baltiysky Zavod (no room here to describe this New Russian-style thriller).
Remarkably, (a) this time, construction should take place much more rapidly (by early 2006 the two destroyers should start service in Qingdao or Zhanjiang naval seaports) and (b) the 956EM destroyers will be much more advanced than the 956E ones; the 'M' means a lot here. According to Western experts, these destroyers – according to their design, at least – are the naval vessels of the 21st century.
And they are incomparably more advanced than two Luhai-class destroyers, the best and largest Chinese-made naval vessels, whose construction was finished in Dalian in 1997 and 2000, respectively (there is some uncertainty regarding the second destroyer).
According to an article in Moscow-based Novyye Izvestiya newspaper (June 27), China is preparing for the American occupation of the naval base at Cam Ranh, Vietnam, recently abandoned by the Russian navy. That's why, according to the Chinese-Russian contract signed on Jan. 3, 2002, Severnaya Verf must produce two Project 956EM ships for PLAN as early as 2005.
The Chinese were primarily attracted by the Moskit anti-ship strike system with its supersonic missiles, which NATO calls the "aircraft-carrier destroyer." Two 956 E destroyers, received in 1999-2000, increased greatly PLAN's capability regarding conflict with U.S. Navy aircraft carrier groups. And there is information that the two new 956EM destroyers, which Severnaya Verf has begun to build, are to be equipped with more improved weapons, namely, Yakhont systems, whose effective range reaches 280 km (as opposed to 100 km for the Moskit missiles).
China's naval strategy is not limited to the struggle over Taiwan. Chinese interests are increasingly shifting south, and the PLAN has been given the mission of defending oil- and gas-rich islands in the South China Sea. (end of article briefs)
Important comment: The Yakhont missile launcher and its anti-ship missile are much more compact than the Moskit (Sunburn) launcher and its missile. That's why it is possible to deploy, on a 956EM destroyer, at least 16 Yakhont systems (up to 24, according to some sources). One 956EM could have the combat potential of two to three 956E destroyers!
As the authors mentioned in the recently published article "Chinese multi-level air-defense network," sometime in April 2002 Russia and China signed a contract to sell two S-300F (RIF) ship-borne anti-aircraft complexes to China for $200 million. Beijing plans to install the RIF complexes, with a 120-km range, on two new-generation missile destroyers to be built in China by 2005.
According to Hong Kong media reports in mid-June, these two destroyers aren't inferior to the Sovremenny 956EM; they will be constructed by "436th plant" (evidently, in Dalian) and use Chinese-made gas-turbine engines of 26,700 kW capacity. Earlier, China had to import these engines from Ukraine; now China is capable of producing them (based on technology from the Ukrainian Zarya Corp.).
There is some speculation (also in the Hong Kong media) that purchasing two 965EM destroyers for $1.4 billion means the delay of the Chinese-made destroyers project. In the authors' opinion, this is absurd. To the contrary, payment of such money to Russia means that China will get every bit of manufacturing technology and use it at its own shipyards.
So, by the beginning of 2006, PLAN could have up to eight comparatively modern missile destroyers: two Luhai, two Sovremenny 956E, two Sovremenny 956EM, and two Chinese-made Sovremenny replicas. This is a great challenge to U.S. aircraft carrier groups.
New-Generation Diesel Electric Submarines
The leading U.S. papers published, in May-June 2002, dozens of reports on a Chinese-Russian contract for PLAN to purchase eight Kilo 636 diesel-electric submarines for $1.6 billion. We'll describe the most remarkable features of this bargain.
1) These submarines are much more advanced than the four Kilo submarines received by PLAN in 1995-98. They are equipped with two new-generation weapon systems:
They have three stages: The first two define movement at subsonic speeds, the third goes into operation 20 km from the target at supersonic speed, which guarantees invulnerability from enemy air-defense weapons and destroys the enemy's ship.
The Kilo-636 submarine with the Klub system is capable of salvo firing of missiles simultaneously from six torpedo tubes – and not only at surface targets, but also at submarines.
In 2001, China acquired at least 40 Shkval torpedoes from Russia and/or Kazakhstan. It is supposed to use them on "093 project" nuclear submarines also.
The contract for constructing two submarines will be transferred from the Komsomolsk-na-Amure plant to Northern Machine Building Enterprise (NME) in Severodvinsk city, on the White Sea. That's despite NME having no experience in Kilo submarine construction (in contrast with the other three shipyards), and getting the Kilo submarines from Severodvinsk to China will be very difficult.
3) The authors conclude that, simultaneously with the eight submarines constructed in Russia, at least four submarines of the same kind will be built at China Shipbuilding Industry Group Corp.(SIGC) shipyards in Shanghai, Wuhan or Guangzhou cities. As early as 1997, the Chinese and Russians negotiated for China's purchase of about 10 Kilo submarines in exchange for their manufacturing technology.
In 1999, China finished the construction of a "super-Kilo submarine" – the improved version of China's Song diesel-electric submarine. China already has part of the Kilo construction technology; now SIGC will get the entire technology.
4) The order for eight submarines is distributed between three Russian enterprises, in order to accelerate the project's realization. The Chinese will spare no efforts to get all the submarines by 2006 (despite the contract prescribing project completion by 2007).
Finally, by 2006, PLAN could get an entire fleet of comparatively advanced diesel-electric submarines: three to four Song, four old-generation Kilos, eight new-generation Kilos, and at least four Chinese-made Kilos of the new version. Such a fleet, united with the aforementioned advanced destroyers, could greatly affect the naval balance not only around Taiwan, but in the South China Sea and East China Sea as well.
First Chinese Aircraft Carrier
No information about construction of a Chinese aircraft carrier from scratch is available; however, China now has the Varyag unfinished aircraft carrier.
The latest information about the fate of Varyag could be reduced to the following:
Varyag, after spending 110 days being towed by tugboats through the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, South China Sea, East China Sea and Yellow Sea, arrived at Dalian seaport in late March 2002. In April-May, the vessel showed no outward signs of becoming "the world's largest floating casino and hotel" (Macao-based company Agencia Turistica bought Varyag from Ukraine under just this pretext, for $20 million, in 1998).
Heavy security measures bar any civilian access to Varyag at the Dalian shipbuilding plant (which of the two plants is unknown). This has fueled speculation, in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, that Varyag is being used by PLA for the attempt to build its first operational aircraft carrier.
Varyag is stripped of its armaments, it no longer has the nuclear reactors installed earlier by the Ukrainian company Generating Systems of Crimea. Still, the Kuznetsov-class carrier Varyag is 70 percent complete and weighs 33,600 tons.
According to Hong Kong media, it is extremely doubtful that Agencia Turistica will ever turn Varyag into a floating casino. Moreover, this company's owners are closely connected with PLAN. (end of Varyag-related information briefs)
It looks like the probability of Varyag becoming PLAN's first aircraft carrier should be estimated as at least 70 percent. And this also could be accomplished by 2006.
Conclusions
1) The PLA intends to accomplish a major PLAN overhaul by 2006.
2) At that time China will have complete technology for manufacturing advanced submarines and destroyers.
3) The balance of power in East Asia (let alone around Taiwan) would be tilted in favor of China.
Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
China/Taiwan
Russia
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I hope the chins don't target Tarpon Springs...............FRegards
The Varyag is in exceedingly poor condition. Interior spaces were left open to the elements. It's not really just a case of it's 70% completed, just need to do 30% more....much of the original 70% would have to be completely redone. And to be honest, it's in such bad shape it's likely impossible to ever put it into service. Also, they got the tonnage of Varyag completely wrong; it's far higher than 33,000 tons.
And to have it into service by 2006, if it WAS possible to complete it, is simply laughable. Not only do you have to complete it, you've got to (from scratch) develop the complex series of procedures to run an Aircraft Carrier flight deck, that the US and Britain have had 60 years to do and the Soviets never really mastered, AND you've got to train up pilots (and we've already seen the quality of Chinese pilots.)
If you're LUCKY you've got a more-or-less semi-operational carrier by 2010-2012.
And breezily claiming the Chinese could quickly crank out two Sovremmeny copies by 2006 is also a joke; they've had disastrous problems attempting to copy Soviet nuke subs.
At least the article doesn't blame Clinton for the PLAN getting Russian destroyers.
The Shkval doesn't "fly through the air" and parachute down; they're likely confusing it with another weapons system, likely some sort of Russian version of SUBROC.
And they miss the central problem of the Shkval, which is it is UNGUIDED; it can't turn. Just goes in a straight line.
www.jedonline.com
Frankly, we should be purchasing some of these as well as the heavy anti-ship missles that are found on the Russian Oscar SSGN, Varyag CNGN, and Kirov BCGNs.
The Harpoon Ic and II seem to be poor analogues.
Frankly, we also need to seriously beef up the point defense systems of our major combattants. Our cruisers only have 2 Phalanxes. Our carriers have 3 plus 3 Sea Sparrow launchers. WE need to fully deploy the new RAM systems on our ships and possibly also look at the the proven Israeli Barak system.
The way the Chinese work they will kill thousands of REALLY expensive pilots before they get it right.
That's pretty much how we did it but the losses were spread out over 60 years.
They will try to do it in 6 months
Here in SF / Oakland, we've seen nothing but Chinese product in terms of both new ships and container cranes. In fact, I wonder of the US even have facilities to produce container cranes to modern specs any more?
Does anyone believe for one minute that the PRC will not, as did the Germans and Japanese, translate their increasing domination of large maritime engineering capabilities, into military applications thereof? If you do, I've got a bridge... er, make that set of Shanghainese container cranes, to sell you at bargain basement prices! ;)
The Soveit/Russian SubROC's are the SS-N-15 Starfish (533mm) and SS-N-16 Stallion (650mm)
What have they been talking about, Tricky Mush and Smiley Zemin
I will grant you that from our standpoint it would be horribly cost-ineffective to rehabilitate the thing into a serviceable warship. But from theirs, it may be cheap if it helps their naval architects and engineers and laborers familiarize themselves enough to avoid blind-alleys and costlier mistakes..... And then you need to ask what they need a carrier for. It is unlikely they can achieve naval air superiority except close to their shores, even with a newly-deployed fleet of Varyag-class knock-offs. The F-14 will have no problem with anything they can put up.
The real problem is the unexpected sucker punch. Achieving surprise is the fundamental tactic of modern warfare...as well as terrorism BTW. And that is where the acquisition by PLAN forces of modern silent submarines, and modern anti-ship missiles such as the SN-22 and 25 could prove devastating. An interesting feature of the newest Russian sub variants of the Kilo that they are selling the Chinese is that it even gives them a credible anti-air capability...which is something even WE have not done. I haven't heard if we even have anything on the drawing boards. Probably not.
Agreed! You've probably already seen it but the following story about the Russian Kh-31 from about 5 years ago! still has legs.
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