Posted on 08/06/2002 5:47:57 PM PDT by Axion
Venezuela: New Pro-Chavez Group Makes Its Presence Known Summary
6 August 2002
A new clandestine group calling itself the Carapaica Revolutionary Movement claimed credit for an attack on the Caracas Metropolitan Police Aug. 2. The group's self-proclaimed spokesman said the MRC has no ties to the government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, but military sources in Caracas claim it is a paramilitary group organized and commanded by Interior and Justice Minister Diosdado Cabello.
Analysis
A new clandestine armed group in Venezuela that calls itself the Carapaica Revolutionary Movement has taken credit for the Aug. 2 attack against Metropolitan Police (PM) forces in the poor western Caracas neighborhood of 23 de Enero, Caracas daily El Universal reported. Nine people, including civilians and officers, were wounded.
The group's spokesman said in a press conference at an undisclosed location within the neighborhood that the MRC has no links to President Hugo Chavez or his government, but warned that its members were prepared to use deadly force against all enemies of Chavez's so-called "Bolivarian revolution." Chavez also denied Aug. 4 that the snipers who pinned down the Caracas police forces were tied in any way to his government.
However, Venezuelan military sources in Caracas told STRATFOR Aug. 6 that the MRC is composed of about 40 former army officers who are under the direct command of Interior and Justice Minister Diosdado Cabello and Miguel Rodriguez Torres, the current head of the government's political police (DISIP). The MRC's commander in the field is allegedly a former army officer that sources identified as Noe Martinez Rivero.
Although the group's first public appearance was in 23 de Enero, a traditional hotbed of left-wing extremism in Venezuela, sources say it is based at the DISIP's headquarters in a building called the Helicoide in Caracas. All of the MRC's members reportedly participated in a failed coup led by Chavez against then-President Carlos Andres Perez on Feb. 4, 1992, and they are skilled marksmen trained in jungle and urban counterinsurgency tactics.
Although some Venezuelan news media have speculated that the MRC could have ties to the Tupamaros, another clandestine armed civilian group which has been based in 23 de Enero for more than a decade, military sources in Caracas said there is no connection whatsoever between the two. "The MRC is a much more dangerous group of trained professionals," a Venezuelan military officer told STRATFOR.
The MRC made its first public appearance Aug. 2 after three days of violent protests mainly in downtown and western Caracas by several hundred supporters of Chavez. The protesters were enraged by last week's Supreme Court decision rejecting a writ urging the indictment of four senior military officers on charges of leading a brief coup against Chavez on April 11-13. The high court ordered a new writ from a different judge that is due Aug. 8.
Some MRC leaders have warned that "popular violence" could erupt if the court does not indict the four military officers, but anti-Chavez sources in the military told STRATFOR that if the officers are indicted then the president's recently strengthened control over the armed forces could start to slip again. This could be wishful thinking, but some of the military's top commanders -- especially those aligned with Chavez -- are not taking any chances regarding a possible uprising by anti-Chavez factions.
For instance, army commander Gen. Jorge Garcia Carneiro has more than doubled the size of his personal security detail in recent weeks, according to Venezuelan news reports and eyewitness accounts by STRATFOR sources.
It is possible that the MRC's attack on the Metropolitan Police was meant to intimidate the 12 Supreme Court justices who last week rejected the writ to indict the four military officers. The MRC also may have timed its appearance to intimidate the political opposition before the economy's gathering inflationary crisis strikes the populace in the final four months of 2002, or else to test urban insurgency tactics on a very small and limited scale, to see how the general population and civilian law enforcement agencies like the PM would respond.
It is also possible that the MRC's public appearance now is a sign of Chavez's deteriorating control over the internal political, military and civilian machinery of his Bolivarian revolution. One indication that this could be so was an assertion by the MRC spokesman during the secret press conference that "authority has escaped the government's hands."
Whatever the group's motives, the press conference triggered an immediate response from a clandestine group of anti-Chavez middle- and lower-ranking active duty military officers who call themselves the Comacates. In a communiqué published Aug.6 by El Nacional, the Comacates condemned Chavez as a traitor, demanded his immediate resignation and warned the generals that if they don't act immediately to dismantle the MRC, "then we will do it."
The statement by the Comacates indicated that the group did not intend to launch a coup against Chavez or solve the country's political conflict, but warned, "We will not allow Chavez to reproduce Colombia in Venezuela."
The MRC's appearance has ratcheted up tension in Caracas, which traditionally has been quiet in August, when schools are closed and many of the city's more than 5 million inhabitants normally would take extended vacations in other parts of the country.
However, the economy is projected to decline more than 5 percent in 2002, and far fewer people can afford to take a vacation this year. Moreover, respected Venezuelan market research firms like Datos and Datanalisis reported recently that confidence in Chavez is sinking rapidly again, and the worst of this year's inflationary blow will start to be felt in September when schools are opening and family budgets are squeezed
As a result, groups seeking Chavez's resignation like the Venezuelan Workers Confederation -- which functions as a national umbrella organization for hundreds of separate unions representing about 900,000 mostly public sector members -- are waiting for the economy to drop even more steeply in coming weeks before launching a new round of protest marches demanding Chavez's resignation.
It remains to be seen if such protests would succeed in dislodging the Chavez regime's hold on power, especially since the political opposition so far has been unable to organize itself more effectively. However, Chavez's recently increased control over the military is not permanent or monolithic.
Chavez politicized and fractured the National Armed Forces to achieve his political goals, but now he is riding an unpredictable tiger as a result. The president's senior military chieftains could turn against him at any time if they judge that doing so serves their interests, while the senior military commanders know that they also could suffer a revolt from lower-ranking subordinates, as the Comacates communiqué explicitly warns.
Chavez security chief alleges FARC links [Full Text] CARACAS, Venezuela, Feb. 22, 2002 - (UPI) -- A senior official in Venezuela's security service resigned, after saying the force protects members of Colombian rebel groups operating in Venezuela.
Gustavo Egui Bastidas, the Deputy Commissioner of the country's Police Intelligence Division, or DISIP, said Thursday he could no longer do his job with a clear conscience. "I am resigning because I disagree with the DISIP's policy of providing security to Colombian guerrillas ... this policy is more than just irregular, it approaches treason to Venezuela given the innumerable deaths, kidnappings and other crimes for which these groups are responsible in our country." Egui Bastidas said 90 percent of his fellow officers "obey orders but do not agree with them" and called on President Hugo Chavez to reverse his policy of tacit support for the rebels.
"All the peace negotiations there are over and open confrontations between the guerrillas and the Colombian government have begun. Are they going to carry on letting them cross over into Venezuelan territory?" Egui Bastidas asked. The former DISIP official called on the Armed Forces to issue a statement about their view of the Chávez government's alleged support for the Colombian guerrillas. Egui Bastidas also made a number of revelations about DISIP activities in recent months. He said the Venezuelan security service had collected personal information about all serving military officers and had also tried to smear opposition figures, such as Alberto Pena, the mayor of Metropolitan Caracas.
The official said he was also concerned at the growing role of Russian and Cuban security advisers in Venezuela. Egui Bastidas said he had experienced "the direct participation and the attempts at indoctrination by the Russian and Cuban intelligence services, who have direct and virtually unlimited access within the Helicoide (DISIP's headquarters building)." The official's lawyer, former DISIP Secretary-General Joaquin Chaffardet, said around 100 members of the Cuban intelligence services are currently operating in Venezuela. The new allegations would, if proven, further strain the already difficult relationship between the United States and Venezuela.
Secretary of State Colin Powell recently confirmed that the Bush administration was concerned about "some of President Chavez's actions and his views on what constitutes a democratic system." At the time, Powell refused to comment on rumors of Venezuela's links to Colombian terrorism, saying he needed to see a full report on the issue. The new allegations will also damage Venezuela's fragile relations with its neighbor Colombia.
Colombian presidential candidate Harold Bedoya told local radio it was time Chavez and Cuban President Fidel Castro made a full statement of support for the Colombian government. "I hope Chavez and Castro, who have backed the FARC rebels, will from now on ally themselves with Colombian democracy and we won't have any further problems with them," Bedoya said. The Venezuelan government continues to deny that it supports the guerrillas. Foreign Minister Alfonso Davila said the Venezuelan authorities "regretted the escalation in violence" but would back the Colombian government's decision.
Davila said Chavez has supported the peace process in Colombia ever since his 1998 election, and noted that peace and stability in Colombia were essential for the security of the entire region. Despite the foreign minister's assurances, Egui Bastidas said he was afraid that the Venezuelan authorities would take action to stop him from speaking out about the sensitive relationship between the DISIP and the Colombian rebels. At a news conference, the former security official tried to forestall any covert attempt on his life. "I would like to assure you that I have no plans to commit suicide, my car is in perfect working order and I have never been involved in any criminal act," he said. [End]
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