Poll: Bush Ratings [Still sky-high] and Preview of Upcoming Elections

FOXNEWS ^ | Saturday, August 10, 2002 | By Dana Blanton

[ken5050]

During the 2000 race, there were several studies about the accuray, or bias of polls...( BTW...Dales posted a lot of stuf on it..Freepmail him, he might be able to give you a link)....it came out of the merits of Zogby vs. the others, as I recall, and had a lot to do with the methodology of the polls....post election analysis seemed to indicate a built in bias towards contacting Dem voters....they build in a factor to adjust for it, but it wasn't enough....it wasy to recognize a bias in the polling sample, harder to correctly compensate for it....

The financialmarkets question would be an issue in a presidential race, i.e. if this was 2004, then the markets would hurt W.'s chances....but these are local races, and only about 50 House and senate seats are competitive..and the stock market woun't be a major issue...re all the corporate frauds..well, the Dems are getting tarred with that brush more than the GOP

I thinkt he markets will go much lower for several months..we'll have the Iraqi war II, the GOP will gain in the House, and retake the senate, then the econooy and the markets will start to rise, and W will win 56-44 in 2004, with more gains in Congress...

[republicman]

It shopws that for all GWB's signing into law liberal legislation, for all his high approval numbers, he hasn't converted any of it into making something happen in November.

[section9]

Yep, I'm looking for a four seat pickup in the Senate, with New Jersey being the surprise win. We'll hold the House as well.

However, the generic Presidential numbers in a Bush-Gore 2004 hypothetical should be enough to give us pause. Democrats will come home in large measure in that election. However, once again, to get enough of the independents and to force the Rats to operate on the defensive.

Once again, this is me, Section9...

beating the tomtoms for this individual

to run as Bush's Vice President in 2004. You all can't escape the logic of needing to corral the Independents to secure a Bush Mandate.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Leclair10]

Well lasereye, polls always slant democrat usually 5 percent or so the polling is done by the shear nature and amount of democrats making the pollster over sample. As for turnout the GOP will turnout and the dems will turnout which is the reason only 30 districts or so are in play I just can't see the dems retaking the house the vulnerable seats are mostly GOP leaning seats with only maybe 6 or so in dem leaning districts. The real interest is in the senate where it is highly possible that the GOP will retake it just not that many reps are vulnerable maybe 2 or 3 at best while around 5 or 6 dems have a very real shot at losing. The pollster himself in this article mentioned does polling for dem candidates I guess so fox uses can use that fair and balanced nonsense.

[LS]

You can take this to the bank: if the GOP ONLY gets a 1-vote majority in the Senate, "Lucky" Lincoln Chaffee or John McCain will either convert to Dem or independent.

On the other hand, if the GOP gets a 4-vote or so margin, I would not be surprised THEN to see Zig-Zag Zell Miller switch to be on the side of the power.

In the Senate, it will be all or nothing---no razor-thin margin will=victory.

[ken5050]

I have no problem with Condy..think she'd be a great choice for VP..however, Cheny is very popular with theparty faithful, and he will we very involved in the Iraqi war prosecution. So, assuming his health is OK, I expect him to stay on the ticket in 2004...However, since there's no way he can run for President in 2008..(The heart issue) I'd look for him to resign as VP, maybe in 2005..take a post as advisor to W..and then, especially if the GOP holds the sdenate...look for W to name Rice as the VP......and in a sense, annointing her as the 2008 nominee...the implicationf for a shakeup in the black vote in this country are monumental.....regards..

[LS]

Even more important, I have yet to see a breakdown of the NET NEW seats that have been added. We have a NET NEW GOP seat here in Ohio, and there is a new one in AZ that I am told is likely GOP, but not sure. There is a new one in NM that is likely Dem. What we need is a thorough listing of all redistricted seats and their likely winners.

[LS]

Everything I have heard says that the GOP will gain 10 seats MERELY by redistricting in the House. People in MN tell me Wellstone is in trouble; and Johnson is in trouble in SD. Dole will carry NC. Don't know about the Texas guy. Right now, the Torch is only even, and that isn't good for him.

So I don't think these numbers are overoptimistic at all. The key as I said above is that the GOP must win BY THREE OR MORE in the Senate or Chaffee or McCain or both will jump.

[Jeff Chandler]

If this were a CNN, or NYTimes, LATimes, USAToday, or Washington Post poll in which Bush's approval numbers went from 70% to 69%, the headlines would read: Bush Approval Plummets.

The accompanying article would read: As their dreams of retirement vanish in the frenzy of corporate fraud, greed, and deceit, more Americans are blaming George Bush, questioning his ties to big business, big oil, and big-haired televangelists.

[johnny7]

Yea... that sounds good to me ken. I love to speculate on presidential tickets!

After Reagan/Bush, I thought of Haig/Kirkpatrick. Damn, that would have been an ass-kicking team!

I say, bring Rice on for 2004. We barely won against a block of wood in 2000.

The “polls” said GW was ahead near election day by 10%!

Looking at the dem track record after a defeat, Gore is an “untouchable”... a disease related to the Dukakis/Mondale strain.

The dems want Kerry but will settle for Edwards if he falters. HRC will be the “wild card”.

[DennisR]

They either do not know that Klinton passed the biggest tax hike in history or have forgotten. Wow! He even put a tax on Social Security!!! What a guy. I do not give the Rs much praise for cutting taxes (see this year's "budget"--over $2 trillion dollars, which Bush should have simply vetoed). I just wish they would walk the talk, but at least they talk. The Dems only want more...and more...and more...so they can create legacies for themselves and keep us on the road to Utopia. Using our money, of course.

[Alamo-Girl]

I'd look for him to resign as VP, maybe in 2005..take a post as advisor to W..and then, especially if the GOP holds the sdenate...look for W to name Rice as the VP......and in a sense, annointing her as the 2008 nominee

I agree! What amazed me about the way the Democrats handled the impeachment of Clinton, is that they did not ask him to resign after he won in the Senate removal vote - so that Gore could establish himself ahead of the general election with clean hands. Instead, Gore had the shadow of Clinton dogging him (thankfully!!!)

I think Bush is much, much better at political strategy and would expect him to do exactly as you suggest.

[esopman]

From your keyboard to God's modem.

Blessings on Freepers Everywhere.

[rwfromkansas]

The Fox News poll always leans pubbie. So, I skew this one a bit Democrat....basically it looks like we still have a shot in November though. We have got to work our butts off though at getting conservatives to the polls.

[Salvation]

50 percent of voters say they would support Bush and 37 percent Gore, with the remaining 13 percent voting for someone else or undecided

But, but (the dims say) 37 + 13 = 50%. Thus they are even. Can't you just hear their Clintonian illogic?

[rwfromkansas]

4 seats is too high I think. I am expecting a two seat pickup at most. I hope we will get that though, so if that one other potential Jeffords defects, we still keep control (and no, I am not talking McCain....he won't defect because he likes being in the GOP to shake things up).

[rwfromkansas]

BTW, I am not so sure that conservatives will stay out of this election.

Here in KS, we had an incredible primary last week. The conservatives came out to vote in big numbers and nominated a conservative to the governor's post and AG post by around 10 points, despite the fact that most polls showed the race as a dead heat.

I can't say if this will translate into conservatives coming out in November, but I hope so and I hope it will be nationwide. If conservatives don't come out and vote this fall, they will have nobody to blame but themselves for not getting their agenda listened to in the Senate.

The Senate is obstructing. There are judicial nominees, bills backed up, a passed partial birth abortion ban is probably not even going to be allowed to come to a vote!

Plus, there is the infamous homeland security bill.....we need to hit Dems over the head with this......Bush better get his butt and have an address to the nation sometime during the campaign.....hopefully late Sept. or early October to get people fired up about the Dems obstructing. This is war and it is time the GOP acted like it.

[section9]

I expect:

Thune to beat Johnson in South Dakota.

Talent to beat Carnahan in Missouri.

in addition, I expect New Jersey and the Minnesota races to tilt our way, especially if mobilization is under way.

That's how I get my Full House.

It is possible, and this is a remote possibility, that we might defeat Cleland in Georgia. That would give us a straight flush. Again, that's remote. BTW, Cornyn beats Kirk in Texas hands down.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Friedrich Hayek]

The results of these recent polls tells me that people have put 9/11 behind them and are returning to their normal voting habits. Too bad, it briefly appeared that folks had woken up from their stupor.

[ken5050]

Let's say we pick up 5 seats in the Senate, and then getthe guy in Ga to cross the aisle..could you see ANY scenario where your Sen Nelson switches?....he's more conservative than 50% of the pubbies in the Senate....