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John dont' forget that these type polls seem to have a built in bias towards the Dems of about 5%...plus the fact that Dem voters are more heavily concentrated in a smaller number of districts....I stand by my prediction of 10+ seat pick up in the House, and 3-4 in the Senate..

You're overoptimistic. I don't know that the pro-Democrat poll bias is true all that much anymore. I get the impression this could be a real low turnout election. The Dems are doing their usual scare job on the seniors, who are most likely to vote. By the fall they'll have found a way to play the race card in the urbanized states as usual and get minorities out to the polls, allowing people like Torricelli to survive. Then there's the stock market. If people who suddenly can't retire when they thought they would blame the GOP for that, it's curtains.

On the other hand, I think alot of conservatives may sit this out. The Republicans have failed to make a case that the Dems are obstructing President Bush in any major way. And Bush hasn't come out with anything lately for them to obstruct anyway. They aren't even talking about the judicial nominees much. What's there for conservative voters to get mad enough about to motivate them to vote?

The Dems strategy of scaring seniors, pro-choice women, minorities and enviromentalists is a blunt instrument they use over and over again. It's like a football team with a huge offensive line and a bruising fullback running it up the middle all the time. Nothing pretty about it but it's effective if you have a team that can't figure out how to stop it or even if they can stop it alot, if they have no way whatsover of scoring points themselves.

Well lasereye, polls always slant democrat usually 5 percent or so the polling is done by the shear nature and amount of democrats making the pollster over sample. As for turnout the GOP will turnout and the dems will turnout which is the reason only 30 districts or so are in play I just can't see the dems retaking the house the vulnerable seats are mostly GOP leaning seats with only maybe 6 or so in dem leaning districts. The real interest is in the senate where it is highly possible that the GOP will retake it just not that many reps are vulnerable maybe 2 or 3 at best while around 5 or 6 dems have a very real shot at losing. The pollster himself in this article mentioned does polling for dem candidates I guess so fox uses can use that fair and balanced nonsense.

Everything I have heard says that the GOP will gain 10 seats MERELY by redistricting in the House. People in MN tell me Wellstone is in trouble; and Johnson is in trouble in SD. Dole will carry NC. Don't know about the Texas guy. Right now, the Torch is only even, and that isn't good for him.

So I don't think these numbers are overoptimistic at all. The key as I said above is that the GOP must win BY THREE OR MORE in the Senate or Chaffee or McCain or both will jump.

BTW, I am not so sure that conservatives will stay out of this election.

Here in KS, we had an incredible primary last week. The conservatives came out to vote in big numbers and nominated a conservative to the governor's post and AG post by around 10 points, despite the fact that most polls showed the race as a dead heat.

I can't say if this will translate into conservatives coming out in November, but I hope so and I hope it will be nationwide. If conservatives don't come out and vote this fall, they will have nobody to blame but themselves for not getting their agenda listened to in the Senate.

The Senate is obstructing. There are judicial nominees, bills backed up, a passed partial birth abortion ban is probably not even going to be allowed to come to a vote!

Plus, there is the infamous homeland security bill.....we need to hit Dems over the head with this......Bush better get his butt and have an address to the nation sometime during the campaign.....hopefully late Sept. or early October to get people fired up about the Dems obstructing. This is war and it is time the GOP acted like it.