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US desperate to reassure Israel as Scud fears grow [Israel has Iraq in crosshairs]
The Scotsman | August 16, 2002 | Tim Cornwell

Posted on 08/16/2002 11:26:54 AM PDT by 1bigdictator

US desperate to reassure Israel as Scud fears grow

Tim Cornwell Deputy Foreign Editor

THE United States is engaged in a critical effort to identify Scud missile launch sites in Iraq, analysts say, in an effort to avoid a disastrous counter-attack on Israel if it moves against Saddam Hussein.

With Israeli officials making it clear they reserve the right to respond to any Iraqi attack, Washington is desperate to reassure Tel Aviv that the Scud "issue" has been dealt with.

In 1991, Israel’s restraint in the face of Baghdad launching 39 Scud missiles at Israeli cities - causing heavy damage but few casualties - was a key factor in Washington’s ability to keeping friendly Arab countries in its Gulf war coalition.

The warning that this time, Israel would retaliate - particularly in the face of a biological or chemical attack by a cornered Saddam - has made plain the minefield Washington could face in the event of a second war designed expressly to drive Saddam from office.

The Israeli health ministry said yesterday it had inoculated 700 health workers against smallpox, as a precaution against a biological attack. A decision is expected on whether to vaccinate up to 150,000 more key personnel. It came as Israeli officials underlined that their response in a second Gulf war could be different.

In an interview with Israeli television, the air force commander Major General Dan Halutz warned: "You can’t take what happened then and think it will also happen this time, neither in the way the war will be conducted there ... nor in the manner of Israel’s reaction."

The Israeli defence minister, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, has warned several times flatly that Israel would hit back.

US intelligence officials, meanwhile, have told the US Congress that Israel could use nuclear weapons if an Iraqi attack with non-conventional weapons causes heavy casualties, the Haaretz daily newspaper yesterday.

In London yesterday, the US national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, described Saddam as "an evil man who , left to his own devices, will wreak havoc again on his own population, his neighbours and - if he gets weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them - all of us".

"It is a very powerful moral case for regime change," Ms Rice told BBC radio. "We certainly do not have the luxury of doing nothing."

The question of whether and how Saddam would launch a strike on Israel is now the "number one issue" facing the US as it plans an Iraq campaign, said Magnus Ranstorp, a specialist on the Middle East with the University of St Andrews’ Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence.

After 11 September, Israeli military intelligence said Iraq had 11 to 15 Scud missiles pointed at Israel.

The tough line from Tel Aviv ahead of a threatened US military action to topple Saddam may be a predictable one. But analysts are focusing on what happens to the "Arab street" in pro-Western Arab countries in the event that Israel is drawn into the war.

In the Gaza strip yesterday, several hundred Palestinians staged a rally in support of Saddam, chanting: "Dear Saddam, bomb Tel Aviv."

In 1991, Israel reluctantly complied with Washington’s request to hold back. But today, Israel is not hampered in the same way because there is no coalition to hold together, said Dore Gold, an adviser to the Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon. Mr Sharon has hung his reputation on hitting back hard in the face of terrorist attacks.

"The tone has changed," said Mr Ranstorp. "The context is different. If Israel is attacked by Scuds, it changes the entire equation on the US war on Iraq."

Jordan’s King Abdullah has made plain his opposition to a US attack on Iraq. Iran, meanwhile, views with alarm the prospect of US troops across the border in Iraq.

The question of Israel’s response is a subject of rising debate. Moshe Arens, Israel’s defence minister at the time of the 1991 war, wrote this week that Israeli ground forces had been training for an invasion of western Iraq to search for missile launchers, but the war ended before it could take place.

Gen Halutz did not say how Israel would respond to a new Iraqi attack, but Israeli officials have hinted that the response to a conventional attack would consist of air strikes and ground attacks by airborne forces.

In 1991, the US supplied Israel with Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries, but the Patriot, designed as an anti-aircraft missile, proved ineffectual against Scuds. Since then Israel, with US financing, has developed the only anti-missile missile in the world, Gen Halutz said.

In addition to the smallpox vaccine, Israel’s atomic energy committee said yesterday that anti-radiation iodine tablets would be distributed to people living near Israel’s two nuclear reactors. It denied the move was connected to the Iraqi threat.

This article:

http://www.news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=898102002


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; News/Current Events; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: america; iraq; israel
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1 posted on 08/16/2002 11:26:54 AM PDT by 1bigdictator
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To: 1bigdictator
thanks for the post. i have not read the scotsman before.

my take is that this article is another one that is trying to warn the west of what could happen if iraq is attacked. i guarantee that the us knows where most of the scuds are and if not can quickly locate them.

anything israeli ministers say about fighting back is for internal public consumption. colin powell and george bush know the real answer, whatever it is.

2 posted on 08/16/2002 11:34:04 AM PDT by mlocher
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To: 1bigdictator
I'm all for an attack on Iraq, but i'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about the chain of events that might be triggered when it takes place. Israel would have every right to hit back and i'm sure that they would be generous with the amount of firepower that they send at Iraq. But who knows what stupid thing that the Arab & Muslims of the world do in response to the counter attack & so on & so on.
3 posted on 08/16/2002 11:35:38 AM PDT by HELLRAISER II
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To: mlocher
I would dispute that the US can do anything about the scuds. Mobile scuds would be almost impossible to find. They could be hiding inside buildings or even underneath underpasses. I beleive they have to be tilted upright before fueling with liquid oxygen. Even then, that could be concealed.
For that reason, the US strategy should plan for a chemical attack on Israel. I'm not sure what that strategy should be - thank goodness I don't have to make that decision. But I think if the casualties are low, Israel should respond with a few thousand sorties of conventional strikes. If the casualties are, say, in the several hundreds - then a nuclear strike on Baghdad should not be off the table.
4 posted on 08/16/2002 11:40:50 AM PDT by Mohammed El-Shahawi
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To: Mohammed El-Shahawi
If you are a Muslim, you have startled me by your rational and enlightened perspective on this issue. No offense intended. Why haven't more Muslims like yourself surfaced... or have I been duped by your FR name?
5 posted on 08/16/2002 11:44:35 AM PDT by 1bigdictator
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To: 1bigdictator
This is the first I'd heard that the Patriots were ineffective in shooting down Scuds.

I really hope that the rest of the Arab world realizes that they would get their butt whipped if they pile on.

6 posted on 08/16/2002 11:52:02 AM PDT by MrB
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To: MrB
I am sorry I do not understand what is all this fuss is about if Iraq (or any other Arab regime for the matter) is stupid enough to attack Israel, I think it will be a golden opportunity tro resolve most of ME problems once and for all and with Israel doing all heavy lifting. I do not think that it is going to happen, though.
7 posted on 08/16/2002 11:55:09 AM PDT by alex
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To: HELLRAISER II
The tough line from Tel Aviv ahead of a threatened US military action to topple Saddam may be a predictable one. But analysts are focusing on what happens to the "Arab street" in pro-Western Arab countries in the event that Israel is drawn into the war. In the Gaza strip yesterday, several hundred Palestinians staged a rally in support of Saddam, chanting: "Dear Saddam, bomb Tel Aviv."

Ah yes, the ever to be feared "arab street".

I'm begining to think this is another myth created by their coward leaders and their band of sewer dwellers.

They have no idea what it really means to get into a fight with the big boys.

A gun and a belt of TNT are not much help if the other guys are at 3000 feet in the air flying at 1200 MPH on bombing runs or they are hitting you with missles from 50 miles away.

Stop and think for a moment, how do you fight when you can't see them, can't hear them ( you will never hear the one that will take you out) you can't reach them and you most surely can not out fight them.

It would be like going to a knife fight and all you have is your mouth.

8 posted on 08/16/2002 11:58:00 AM PDT by chiefqc
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To: chiefqc
Of course I agree with your assessment, it's just that i'm worried about Egypt, Iran & even some our supposed allies like France, Germany & Russia.
9 posted on 08/16/2002 12:12:20 PM PDT by HELLRAISER II
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To: MrB
The Patriots did successfully shoot down the Iraqi scuds, but they did not destroy the warheads. Those warheads fell and exploded on local populations.
10 posted on 08/16/2002 12:15:42 PM PDT by carton253
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To: HELLRAISER II
You aren't making Eqypt and Iran allies are you? Just asking.
11 posted on 08/16/2002 12:16:45 PM PDT by carton253
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To: carton253
warheads fell and exploded

That could be a BIG problem with chem/bio warheads.

12 posted on 08/16/2002 12:17:38 PM PDT by MrB
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To: HELLRAISER II
No worries there.

Egypt and Iran would be 2nd and 3rd on the list for a couple of nukes, France and Germany would scream and cry a lot, but would whimp out.

Russia, believe it or not, I believe, would back Israel.

These Arabs have really no clue who they are dealing with.

They believe that they have god on their side and therefore invincible, Well, guys, got a clue for you. He's NOT and You're NOT.

We're gonna kick your butts to your 72 virgins in hell right quick!!
13 posted on 08/16/2002 12:21:41 PM PDT by Aric2000
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To: MrB
Yes...but should the fear of what might be stop us.

By that I mean... Saddam is getting these weapons. Some he has, some he does not. Those he does not have (mostly delivery systems) he is within a year or two of securing.

Do you attack now... or wait. Do you pay now... or pay later?

Does the fear of the unknown stop you from doing what needs to be done.

BTW, it would not be Patriots that would be deployed. New systems have come on line that are quicker, faster, and would destroy the scuds farther away.

The military expert on Fox News went into a huge explanation of the newest military toys we have. With the predator that could circle Iraq for 24 hours at a time, we would be able to pinpoint scuds as they begin the launch sequence...

I didn't understand it all, but it seemed to me that these new weapon systems would detect and fire sooner... exploding the scuds over Iraq instead of Israel.

14 posted on 08/16/2002 12:24:24 PM PDT by carton253
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To: carton253
No, however the enemies of my enemies makes for some strange allies and let's face it everybody hates us.
15 posted on 08/16/2002 12:28:00 PM PDT by HELLRAISER II
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To: HELLRAISER II
Well not everyone... Israel likes us, and Britian likes us. And I think the Russians like us. Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Turkey seem to like us. Kuwait hates us in the papers, but like us when they think no one is watching. The same is true with Jordan. The Iranian people love us... the government hates us though... The 'Stans seem to like us okay. Tawain loves us! I think South Korea can be put into the "kinda like ya category."

Europe only hates us because its chic to do so. Let the Germans march through again, and they will love us again.

I think Italy likes us. Their new prime minister seemed to yes everything Bush was saying at the G8 meeeting.

I think we can count on the Irish too.

Other than that... I think everyone else fears us...

Good thing we aren't running for Miss Congeniality.

16 posted on 08/16/2002 12:34:36 PM PDT by carton253
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To: carton253
I think we can Count on Austrailia & England. The rest will let us sink or swim on our own.
17 posted on 08/16/2002 12:38:02 PM PDT by HELLRAISER II
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To: HELLRAISER II
Sorry, I forgot Israel of course.
18 posted on 08/16/2002 12:38:40 PM PDT by HELLRAISER II
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To: HELLRAISER II
Well... that may be true... but you can count on Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman... We are already there building up bases. These three seem to know the reality of what Saddam could do if loosed.
And I would count Turkey too...
19 posted on 08/16/2002 12:40:30 PM PDT by carton253
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To: carton253
I think with Quatar, Bahrain & Oman that fear & the reality of the world of hurt that we(the U.S.) could put on them is what has netted us their ceoperation. They do not like us, but they do respect us.
20 posted on 08/16/2002 12:46:09 PM PDT by HELLRAISER II
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To: 1bigdictator
Dear Tel Aviv, Bomb Saddam!

Mr Sharon, Tear Down Mosques from Temple Mount!

21 posted on 08/16/2002 12:48:14 PM PDT by crystalk
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To: HELLRAISER II
And that should be the goal of our foreign policy.

To serve up a nice healthy dose of fear and respect.

22 posted on 08/16/2002 12:54:11 PM PDT by carton253
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To: 1bigdictator
George Herbert Walker Bush is the greatest idiot to ever occupy the White House. To have left Sadam Hussien in power after fully crippling his regiem was the collosal blunder of all time. It is going to cost hundreds of thousands if not millions of lives.
23 posted on 08/16/2002 12:54:59 PM PDT by mercy
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To: mercy
Bush Sr. does not warrant your wrath, but your wrath is warranted; it's just misplaced. The Democrats in Congress, the Coalition partners and the UN mandate specifically authorized removing Iraq from Kuwait... not Saddam's head on a stick in Bhagdad. It was short sighted by these liberal minded appeasers not to give Bush the go ahead to finish the job.
24 posted on 08/16/2002 1:00:16 PM PDT by 1bigdictator
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To: 1bigdictator
bump
25 posted on 08/16/2002 1:01:44 PM PDT by Centurion2000
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To: 1bigdictator
Big bump on that post!!!
26 posted on 08/16/2002 1:01:48 PM PDT by carton253
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To: mercy
Your assessment is right, it's just not directed at who is truly responsible. The coalition of countries that we formed against Saddam would not let us finsish what we started, was it a mistake? Most definately, but Bush couldn't do anything about it. Someone reminded me yesterday on the forum of the importance of keeping ones word, whether it was from an individual or a country or both. In that case it was from both he & the U.S. that he would stop once Saddam was ousted from Saudia Arabia & Kuwait.
27 posted on 08/16/2002 1:05:53 PM PDT by HELLRAISER II
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To: HELLRAISER II
< "the U.S. that he would stop once Saddam was ousted from Saudia Arabia & Kuwait."

Was Iraq ever actually in Saudi Arabia at the time or are you refering to the risk of potential invasion Iraq posed to the Saudis?

28 posted on 08/16/2002 1:13:10 PM PDT by 1bigdictator
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To: 1bigdictator
My typo, sorry. I think the risk of invasion was the actual reality of the situation.
29 posted on 08/16/2002 1:14:36 PM PDT by HELLRAISER II
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To: 1bigdictator
If the GWII does come about I don't think Iraq wants in from TWO sources
I doubt Saddams generals want to go down in flames. They will take him out
30 posted on 08/16/2002 1:26:09 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: mlocher
In the grand scheme of things, it only takes one chem or bio-tipped SCUD to upset the Middle East apple cart, once and for all. But a little perspective, please. According to best estimates, Saddam has no more than 24 SCUDs and Al Hussein missiles; most have been buried in the desert for the past decade, or sheltered under primitive conditions. Their operational reliability is quesitonable, at best. Additionally, Saddam has only about 5-6 mobile launchers that aren't in much better shape.

Based on numbers alone, it will be much, much more difficult. Additionally, Israel's recently-activated Arrow II missile defense system is more than capable of handling an Iraqi attack.

Finally, Saddam's #1 priority has always been regime survival. Launching a preemptive attack on Israel is tantamount to suicide. The only scenario under which Saddam would attack Israel is if he feels his regime is doomed, and he has nothing to lose.

31 posted on 08/16/2002 1:26:53 PM PDT by Spook86
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To: Spook86
In the grand scheme of things, it only takes one chem or bio-tipped SCUD to upset the Middle East apple cart, once and for all.

agreed, sort of. personally, if it requires upsetting, let the apple cart flipping begin.

But a little perspective, please.

as i read what you were writing, i was thinking more or less along your lines.

32 posted on 08/16/2002 1:34:42 PM PDT by mlocher
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To: mlocher
Neutron bomb will effect 3 square miles....Baghdad is 256 square miles...so 85 to 100 neutron bombs will be a great start...just carpet bomb the hell out of the place...
33 posted on 08/16/2002 1:42:09 PM PDT by antivenom
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To: 1bigdictator
OK, I am not an expert on foreign affairs and I don't play one on TV. However, I wonder whether the best way to depose Saddam might be for W. to go on TV and say something like:

After a careful evaluation, we've decided that Saddam Hussein is no threat to anybody except possibly the fleas on his dog. The United States has better things to do than worry about washed up old has beens who can't even shoot down an airplane with a lucky shot after over 10 years of trying. If the Iraqi's can find a real man to lead their country we might pay attention, But as long as all they've got is a tinpot dictator who abuses his own people for fun and profit, we'll focus on serious foreign policy issues.

Would the Iraqi people suffer a leader who only rates derision from the west? Would they depose him for failing to live up to the "axis of evil" moniker?

Just a thought.

Shalom.

34 posted on 08/16/2002 1:47:57 PM PDT by ArGee
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To: MrB
My understanding of what happened with the Scuds is that many of them didn't even have explosives in them, since otherwise they would have had too much weight to get the necessary range. So when they were hit by Patriots, the pieces still fell and caused damaged. Sort of like a bus falling from the sky, it doesn't matter whether there are explosives in it, it or its pieces are still going to do damage.
35 posted on 08/16/2002 1:54:00 PM PDT by LadyAustin
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To: crystalk
Mr Sharon, Tear Down Mosques from Temple Mount!

Why has nobody else picked up on this obvious show of tolerance from Israel for the Moslem people? If Sharon hadn't had reason before to blast that thing to the sky he has it in spades now, yet he does not. Why? It's the heart of the two sides behind this war.

If the Arabs laid down their weapons tomorrow you would have no mor war.
If Israel laid down her weapons tomorrow you would have no more Israel.

If I were Sharon I would set up a big, highly visible, powerful looking missile launcher somewhere in Jerusalem and point the missile right at the Dome of the Rock. Then I would make an announcement that the soldier on that missile launcher has orders to shoot as soon as the next homicide bombing occurs. No delays. No questions.

And I'd cover the missile in pig fat.

I wonder what the Arabs would do?

Shalom.

36 posted on 08/16/2002 1:54:33 PM PDT by ArGee
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To: 1bigdictator
The Iraqi's breifly occupied Kafji, a small town on the boarder
37 posted on 08/16/2002 1:55:35 PM PDT by ContentiousObjector
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To: 1bigdictator
"If Israel is attacked by Scuds, it changes the entire equation on the US war on Iraq."

Yeh, it might make a US war on Iraq unecessary.

Saddam pays $$$ to the families of homocide bombers. The Palis are holding a pro-Iraq "demonstration" for their greatest benefactor and the best customer for their only product: terrorism today.

38 posted on 08/16/2002 2:02:07 PM PDT by cake_crumb
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To: ArGee
I wonder what the Arabs would do?

The jihadists are also armagedonists.
They'd view this as a golden opertunity to unite the muslim world to destroy Israel.

39 posted on 08/16/2002 2:13:18 PM PDT by MrB
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To: Thud
ping
40 posted on 08/16/2002 2:20:02 PM PDT by Dark Wing
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To: ArGee; Thinkin' Gal; Jeremiah Jr; All
Bump, ping et al
41 posted on 08/16/2002 3:09:31 PM PDT by crystalk
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To: Dark Wing
Consider the source.
42 posted on 08/16/2002 3:10:00 PM PDT by Thud
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Comment #43 Removed by Moderator

To: HELLRAISER II
But who knows what stupid thing that the Arab & Muslims of the world do in response to the counter attack & so on & so on.

LOL! Bring it on!!! If another Islamic state wants to join in the rumble, let it. The US, Turkey, and Israel combined could stomp every Islamic state [other than Turkey] for a thousand miles. Just give Turkey all the territory it wants, and I bet we have a deal.

This is the dynamic.... Israel is a wild card that we have no control over. The Islamics will rip their beards off and shave their heads in frustration, because we would be unable to do a darn thing about Israel.

44 posted on 08/16/2002 4:30:03 PM PDT by Arthur Wildfire! March
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To: ArGee
When it comes to insults, Saddam isn't half bad. He called G W 'Little Bush'. So I would imagine that Bush's one insult would inspire many others from Saddam that would make him more respected than ever. "The Little Bush left like a tiny dog with his tail between his legs, turning back with bluffing growls." No, insults are easy for dictators. Bush has to process everything he says diplomatically with his advisors.
45 posted on 08/16/2002 4:38:05 PM PDT by Arthur Wildfire! March
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Comment #46 Removed by Moderator

To: Admiral Kimmel
I don't think Israel would ask you to... but I believe America should not pressure Israel not to counter-attack should Iraq attack her the way we did in 1991. We must not impliment a double standard against Israel and prevent her from responding to Arab-backed terror-- since we ourselves have responded.
47 posted on 08/19/2002 4:04:05 AM PDT by 1bigdictator
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To: 1bigdictator
Another misguided attempt to restrain Israel and avoid the inevitable end days.


BUMP

48 posted on 08/19/2002 4:14:03 AM PDT by tm22721
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To: ArGee
We Israelis have long been aware that we want peace and "they" don't. We do whatever we can to promote peace and they reject it. We have educated the Arab peasants, given them western medicine and brought them generally into the 20th/21st centuries. However our money and patience is not unlimited and there is much bureaucracy in the civil service; I suppose because we are a new country which is establishing its infrastructure during a time of continuous warfare, where most resources are devoted to defence. There is also the fact that some Israelis have a personal debt to settle with Arabs. The courts never support such racist behaviour, but the Arabs take it personally. Each failure to perform is taken as a personal insult, each success is taken for granted.

Considering the intense spotlight thrown on every aspect of Israel's dealings with the Palestinians I think we have actually come out of it quite well. Can you imagine if this intense scrutiny were turned on other countries and their shortcomings?
49 posted on 08/19/2002 4:39:46 AM PDT by FreeReporting
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To: jbind
The President is the most powerful man on the Earth, yes I believe had Bush wanted to do it, he could have. However the alliance was such at the time that he chose not to go against what the alliance wanted. Was it a mistake, most definately. But Politics is a fickled mistress and sometimes we don't get to do what we wanted to do.
50 posted on 08/19/2002 5:31:47 AM PDT by HELLRAISER II
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