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Okasaki warns of US, China clash
Taipei Times ^ | 8/23/02 | Monique Chu

Posted on 08/23/2002 7:13:39 AM PDT by Enemy Of The State

Okasaki warns of US, China clash

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PHOTO: CHEN CHENG-CHANG, TAIPEI TIMES

WARNING: Ex-Japanese ambassador Hisahiko Okazaki warned yesterday that if the two powers fail to address inconsistencies in their Taiwan policies, war could result
By Monique Chu
STAFF REPORTER

Policies designed to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, now exercised by both Washington and Beijing, are by nature "vulnerable," and should be altered to avoid a collision between the two powers, former Japanese ambassador Hisahiko Okazaki warned yesterday.

Okazaki, addressing the first US-Japan-Taiwan Trilateral Strategic Dialogue seminar, discussed the course of world history over the next fifty to one hundred years.

"Only China can be regarded as the next challenger to the Anglo-Saxons," said Okazaki, speaking at the Westin Hotel in downtown Taipei.

"If China confronts the US, I am afraid that it will meet with the same fate as other nations who have challenged Anglo-Saxon hegemony."
Hisahiko Okazaki, former Japanese ambassador

"If China confronts the US, I am afraid that it will meet with the same fate as other nations who have challenged Anglo-Saxon hegemony," Okazaki said, adding that the Taiwan factor is the most pivotal element in future Washington-Beijing ties.

Okazaki went on to argue that both Washington and Beijing "appear to agree on the maintenance of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait," a situation the diplomat perceived as "vulnerable" by its very nature.

"The US declares that it would not support Taiwan independence. But how long can the US persuade Taiwan to refrain from seeking formal independence?" said the 72-year-old veteran diplomat.

"It can't keep preventing the Taiwanese from freely expressing their own will through democratic procedures."

If a majority of Taiwanese do vote for independence, Okazaki argued that the US would "most likely defend a fellow democracy," given what he observed as the current climate in the pro-Taiwan US Congress.

The Cambridge-educated economist, who during the past 50 years has climbed the Japanese bureaucratic ladder with impressive defense as well as foreign ministry experience, then urged the US to revamp its longstanding policy toward Taiwan.

"The US should stop asking for artificial restraint and let Taiwan's democracy work. It should refrain from repeating the empty words `one China,' or `non-support of Taiwan independence,'" he said.

The US should not intervene in the future course of Taiwanese politics, he warned, adding: "The US should instead watch carefully the natural course of events, while committing itself to the defending the freedom of Taiwan."

Evaluating Beijing's policy toward Taipei, Okazaki, currently serving as director of the Tokyo-based think tank, The Okazaki Institute, said China's policy of maintaining the status quo is "short-term," as Beijing has claimed it would not wait indefinitely for unification.

But with some Chinese leaders proposing that Beijing could "negotiate" with Taipei after its military forces occupy the island, Beijing's concept of maintaining the status quo could put the US and China on a "collision course," Okazaki said.

"But the question is whether this would be perceived as a peaceful negotiation. In the context of the Taiwan Relations Act, it would be considered an act of intimidation, one that the US would most likely not accept," Okazaki said.

"China should never underestimate the fact that the Anglo-Saxons can sometimes be tremendous fighters, formidable adversaries ... Be careful about dealing with the Anglo-Saxons," Okazaki said, triggering a roomful of laughter from an audience from the US, Japan and Taiwan.

Osaki argued that such a conflict could eventuate if and when Beijing believed that the loss of Taiwan would result in the loss of Tibet and/or other territories.

Beijing, however, could quickly defuse the situation by seeking a peaceful settlement with Taipei by agreeing to a "separate Taiwan," said the former minister and ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Thailand.
 


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 08/23/2002 7:13:39 AM PDT by Enemy Of The State
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To: Enemy Of The State
Communist China is preparing for war with the United States.

They have a long range plan, the same aim/ultimate goal that Japan did during WW II (conquest of the Pacific Rim) and they are putting the pieces into place to make it happen. They are modernizing all branches of their armed services with special emphasis on destroying U.S. aircraft carriers and it's fleet. They realize that the ONLY entity that stands in the way of their eventual conquest and control of the entire Pacific Rim is the United States.

We will go to war with communist China, it is just a matter of time. They are patient, and they are doing everything within their power to make it happen. The Pacific Rim is their goal, it is gong to be up for grabs, the big question is this: do we as a nation have the national will and moral fiber to count the cost it will take to stop them? Only time will tell.

2 posted on 08/23/2002 8:05:17 AM PDT by Jmouse007
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To: Jmouse007
Take out one carrier...?
Here comes a response from 60 submarines to bounce the rubble.
3 posted on 08/23/2002 8:16:27 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
They are not looking to take out one but all of the carriers. As for "bouncing the rubble", when Clinton was president, Al Oueda had declared war on the US, bombed our embassies, the twin towers, nearly sunk one of our ships and what was our response? ... NOTHING.

Our response to China's coming aggression is all going to depend upon WHO the commander and chief is at the time, along with which party controls the House and Senate. If it were Algore or Hillery or Gephardt or fill in the name of any Democrat or limp wristed Republican you choose, we will decide not to get involved or at best mount a weak response. Because our leaders and America will not have the stomach to take massive numbers of casualties in order to (in their eyes) "fight someone else’s battles". This is exactly what communist China is and will be counting on and what they will wait for. Heck, on Sept. 11th we lost over 3000 CIVILIANS on US soil and look at the debate that is raging regarding attacking Iraq when Saddam is actively involved in breaking the agreements re: weapons inspectors and developing WMD's, which when used will make Sept 11 look like a birthday party in comparison.

I wouldn't hold my breath regarding "bouncing rubble" if the democrats are in power at the time. The response would be the same that is being foisted by the NEA regarding Sept. 11: "we are sorry, it is our fault, we deserved to get attacked, here you can have the Pacific Rim, just leave is out of it".

4 posted on 08/23/2002 8:39:18 AM PDT by Jmouse007
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To: Jmouse007
It won't matter if a Republican or Democrat is in the White House.
5 posted on 08/23/2002 8:55:12 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Unfortunately you are probably right, unless they decide to attack while Bush II is still in office (highly unlikely, he would rock their world with bouncing rubble and they know it).
6 posted on 08/23/2002 9:10:10 AM PDT by Jmouse007
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To: Enemy Of The State
China should never underestimate the fact that the Anglo-Saxons can sometimes be tremendous fighters, formidable adversaries

So can Chinese. Fact is, East and West have gotten along reasonably well for the most part for thousands of years.

7 posted on 08/23/2002 9:15:11 AM PDT by RightWhale
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To: RightWhale
China should never underestimate the fact that the Anglo-Saxons can sometimes be tremendous fighters, formidable adversaries

Anglo-Saxons? Not many left here.

8 posted on 08/23/2002 10:02:17 AM PDT by Eternal_Bear
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To: Jmouse007; belmont_mark; Noswad; skemper; EditorTFP
You are absolutely correct. They are preparing for war. Let us also remember the "Friendship Treaty" with Russia, in which the Russians have decided to side with the PRC in a war over Taiwan.

Let us also not forget that China presently has control of the Panama Canal and that they are presently building the largest port facility in the world in the Bahamas. They have also established closer relations with Cuba, Venuzuela and the many marxist guerilla groups throughout Latin America. I have even read that they have been establishing military ties with Mexico. There is a rhyme and reason for this.

I believe the largest shipping company in the world is the PRC owned Cosco Corp. They were given port facilities in California and they even have facilities within the waterways of our own country, one being on the Arkansas River in Ft. Smith, AR.

KGB defector Major Anatolyi (sp) Golitson has been warning us of this for many years, as did the late Czech General Jan Sejna. Both of these cold-war defectors were in positions to know, yet they have been ignored, even though the 94% of Golitsyn's 190+ "things to look for" (or predictions if you will) have come to pass, one of which was the fall of the Berlin wall.

IMO, what helped us defeat our enemies during both WWI and WWII was the fact that we came into the war at a later date. The enemy was already engaged with other European countries.

However, what if the Russians and PRC have learned this lesson and attack us first? Another one of Golitsyn's warnings was that when Russia and the PRC were ready, Russia would strike us first with NBC weaponry, while the PRC invades. I would submit that this is the reason why the PRC appears to be surrounding the U.S. with port facilities and is establishing ties with Latin American countries.

It's easy to think of Golitsyn and Sejna as nuts. Who wants to believe that anyone can execute such a complicated, long-term plan against us? I would suggest that this isn't as hard as it would appear to be if the Congress and intelligence agencies are filled with arrogant, "no one can defeat us because we are a superpower" mentalities. I believe this to be the case.

I for one, an preparing accordanly. I would highly suggest that others do so also.

9 posted on 08/23/2002 10:06:54 AM PDT by bat-boy
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To: Eternal_Bear
Anglo-Saxons? Not many left here.

Fought hard, died good.

10 posted on 08/23/2002 10:07:22 AM PDT by RightWhale
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To: Jmouse007
do we as a nation have the national will and moral fiber to count the cost it will take to stop them?

I doubt it, considring the costs.

11 posted on 08/23/2002 10:40:51 AM PDT by biffalobull
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To: Jmouse007
They are not looking to take out one but all of the carriers.

You mind explaining how they will do this?

12 posted on 08/23/2002 10:45:47 AM PDT by Poohbah
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To: RightWhale
D-Day Museum... New Orleans... go see it.

Regarding China policy, the Bush Administration is well aware of the issues. After all, Bush-41 was China Ambassador for Nixon.

The issue is whether or not the US wants to fight a two front war. We need stronger economic policy in California and the West Coast. The PRC has tentacles all over Southern California, the Bay Area, and Seattle.

If they keep pointing their missiles at us, why shouldn't we seize assets by eminent domain.

But no... our lunk headed local politicians would rather seize protestant non-denominational churches in Cypress!

DUH!

13 posted on 08/23/2002 11:29:55 AM PDT by bonesmccoy
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To: Enemy Of The State
Well there is one Japanese that learned his lesson well.

What he failed to address, is that one day China will come looking for Japan as they never forget. China will have her revenge and Japan will pay the bill.

14 posted on 08/23/2002 11:35:35 AM PDT by cynicom
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To: cynicom
Most of Asia feels the same way.
15 posted on 08/23/2002 11:44:52 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Eric...

When China decides to move, and they will, SE Asia will be theirs for the taking. Western China has a small border as far west as Afghanistan and a corridor to the Middle East oil. With nuclear weapons of their own, who would step forward to counter their westward march, with millions of human locusts????

16 posted on 08/23/2002 11:59:09 AM PDT by cynicom
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To: Poohbah
Easy. Once things are not going they're way, they'll simply press the 'reset' button, via 'cheat codes'....circle, triangle, triangle, square, R1, L1, square, L2, L2, R2 oughtta do it, and American forces all over the globe will simply self-destruct.

Well, at least that explanation will work for the 'War is just like those Playstation games' crowd, and is probably the only way that would happen anyway.

17 posted on 08/23/2002 12:00:31 PM PDT by Citizen of the Savage Nation
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To: Enemy Of The State
A person has to wonder if these are those that are spoken of here.

Revelation 9:14 Saying to the sixth angel which had the trumpet, Loose the four angels which are bound in the great river Euphrates. 15 And the four angels were loosed, which were prepared for an hour, and a day, and a month, and a year, for to slay the third part of men. 16 And the number of the army of the horsemen were two hundred thousand thousand: and I heard the number of them.

As far as I know China has been the only nation on earth to make the brag that they could field an army of 200 million.

18 posted on 08/23/2002 12:06:07 PM PDT by MissAmericanPie
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To: MissAmericanPie
As far as I know China has been the only nation on earth to make the brag that they could field an army of 200 million.

They could field an army of 200,000,000--for a very brief period.

It would be something to behold. The Chinese would have to conduct their campaigning between rice harvests--for the first time since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the concept of a "campaigning season" would reenter the military lexicon.

Would China be undone as Harald Godwinson was--and for the same reasons? (i.e., having to dismiss the troops so they could go home and harvest their crops)

19 posted on 08/23/2002 12:23:42 PM PDT by Poohbah
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To: Enemy Of The State
No fair - no fair. Why can't China wait till we are fighting all the Arab nations? Don't they know we have only a one-war economy and battle force? Doesn't it make sense for China to wait until we have made some more billions of enemies? Then they could supply weapons of SMALL destruction to the locals in the countries we occupy. They could even use our model of how the Afghans kicked our the Russian occupiers. Maybe they haven't seen our TV - "I love it when a plan comes together".
20 posted on 08/23/2002 12:38:54 PM PDT by ex-snook
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To: Poohbah
I really don't know, maybe conditions get so bad that there are no crops to harvest. That's the thing about life, it's not static. Perhaps they wouldn't plan on being at war that long if they modeled their attack after Hitler's bliz kreig.

Only one thing is for sure and that you can take to the bank, if the bible says an army of 200 million wipes out a third of mankind, it will happen eventually. If atmospheric conditions or weapons like the pulse prohibit the use of anything with electronics then all armies will be back to WW1 tactics and weapons. As far as being on horseback goes, we have already seen our military on horseback in Afghanistan, so it's no big leap to figgure in horses in future battles in that area.

21 posted on 08/23/2002 12:55:45 PM PDT by MissAmericanPie
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To: Enemy Of The State
I like this guy.
22 posted on 08/23/2002 2:45:53 PM PDT by Joseph_CutlerUSA
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To: Jmouse007; bat-boy
And there's more!.... Beyond the overt and obvious sabre rattling across the Strait, from West to East:

1. A Portion of far northern Pakistan now effectively under Chinese control - and with the blessing of Islamabad. Does anyone need to ask who is fueling the ongoing insurgency in Afghanistan?

2. Due south of there, at the port of Gwadhar, the PRC work along side the Pakistani Navy to construct what will be the first new Naval base of the 21st century. Can you say Strait of Hormuz?

3. Although, supposedly, "Maoists" and the CCP are currently quite at odds, nonetheless, Beijing funnels arms and money to groups in India (communist insurgents) who then push it into Nepal for the Maoists.

4. In Myanmar, the PRC (with help from Pakistan, and, gasp... Russia, build military infrasture including but not limited to Navy bases, ELINT, missile bases, and roads... lots and lots of roads.

5. Did I mention roads? How about roads and useful idiots. The superhighway from Kunming PRC (HQ for 14th Army, missile forces, TELs, tanks etc) to Bangkok is within weeks of completion. Funding? Well naturally the PRC, but also, businessmen in Bangkok who foolishly believe that the current benevolence shown by the PRC in the form of trade and business will blossom. And yet, look at #4 above - building up a nation historically at odd with Thailand. Myanmar now has the largest Armed forces in SE Asia and increasingly, the best hardware. Wuzzup widdat?

6. A similar situation as #4 and #5 vis a vis Laos, albeit quite a bit further behind. Of course, the PLA have been there for years, so they are only feet away from the heart of SE Asia at any given time.

7. The Spratleys, and many other areas of the S. China Sea have, since the 1980s, been occupied illegally by the PRC with no real opposition, particularly by the US and Australia, who in the past would have. Big mistake. Can you say Strait of Malacca?

Any questions?

23 posted on 08/23/2002 8:44:37 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD
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To: cynicom
You're out to lunch!

It's not the Japanese that had to wake up.

The fact of the matter is that this nation has been swallowing DNC propaganda on the entire origin of WW-II!

Ask yourself a simple question: How is it that during FDR's first three terms, the FDR administration supported two nations (Russia and China) that eventually became massive socialist superpowers?

Somehow, the reality that Japan is the strongest trade partner for our nation escapes mention!

Japan is only looking out for her own destiny. China isn't entirely a threat to Japan, but certainly the amount of Japanese investment in China and Hong Kong is substantial.

24 posted on 08/25/2002 1:23:38 AM PDT by bonesmccoy
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To: swarthyguy; Orion78; lavaroise; tallhappy
Ping.
25 posted on 08/25/2002 4:22:27 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD
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To: belmont_mark
Apparently Russia is still not surrendering the Japanese islands in the North. The Japanese are not mentioning Russia's concurent will to dominate the region in partnership with china.
26 posted on 08/26/2002 3:24:48 AM PDT by lavaroise
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To: Enemy Of The State
Russia, China sign historic friendship treaty (7/16/01)

"Russia acknowledges that there is only one China, the government of the People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government representing all of China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China," the treaty said. "Russia opposes any kind of independence for Taiwan."

27 posted on 08/27/2002 5:52:09 PM PDT by Orion78
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