Not enough. Gotta get the loss up to a billion. Then they'll have no choice but to either repeal the tax increases to stimulate sales/revenue or lose even more money in fruitless enforcement efforts.
Of course, the legislature is goofy enough to make smoking completely illegal in California, even in one's own home. I wouldn't put it past them for one a minute.
There's a law in the CA Legislature at this very moment which would raise the smoking age to 21. It's not going to pass because the state needs the tax revenue desperately, but if it had come up a year or two ago, when the state had a huge surplus, I'll bet it would have passed.