The U.S. agrees with Israeli assessments that Libya has renewed its efforts to acquire a nuclear bomb, and that those efforts have been stepped up since 1999, when the UN sanctions on the country were removed.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said this week that Libya is energetically seeking to develop a nuclear weapon. Israel believes that Libya is trying to acquire fissionable material for nuclear weapons through centrifuges, but that it is a slow process. Experts say that Libya may be cooperating with North Korea and Pakistan in the effort. The prime minister mentioned the same assessment, though he also raised the possibility the Libyans are getting aid from Iraqi experts. Sharon told media interviewers that it's possible that Libya will achieve nuclear status before Iraq.
Libya is considered Egypt's "backyard," and it is doubtful that Egypt could miss spotting extensive nuclear efforts. The Egyptian leadership knows the American administration suspects Libya is making efforts in that direction, and in light of this, the question becomes to what extent Egypt is aware of the efforts and what Cairo plans to do about them. Will it regard it as a threat to be prevented, will it ignore it, or will Cairo try to make indirect use of it?
The Libyan efforts came up in discussions between Israeli and American officials six months ago, when it became apparent to the Israelis that the Americans had acquired similar information to what Israel knows about Libya's nuclear ambitions.
Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton said in Washington on May 5 that the U.S. "has no doubt" that Libya is continuing its efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon. He said the administration believes that with the sanctions lifted in 1999, Libya's access to nuclear technology was increased.
But he added that while Libya needs foreign assistance to achieve its nuclear goals, there is reason to be concerned about the strengthening of Libya's nuclear infrastructure.
Bolton noted that on March 25, Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi told Al Jazeera TV that "we demanded the dismantling of Israel's weapons of mass destruction, otherwise the Arabs have the right to be equipped with the same weaponry."
He described Libyan chemical weapons development, and spoke about their purchases of chemical materials in the Middle East, Asia and Western Europe, and noted that the Libyans had developed a ground-to-ground missile with the help of Serbia, India, North Korea and China. But he also said that Libya condemned the terror attack on the U.S. last year and that there had been great progress in the state's reduction of support for terror.
Bolton was recently in Israel, meeting with various people including Maj. Gen. Uzi Dayan, the outgoing head of the National Security Council.
Libya has been prominently listed on the State Department list of states that support terrorism but there was talk about removing it from the list this year to prove that the U.S. has a carrot and stick policy and that those countries that cease support for terror will benefit.
But with discussions of Libya now including its nuclear ambitions, the State Department was forced to note in its annual report on terror that while Libya "apparently" ceased support for international terror, there are still pockets of support for links with some groups. Libya's agreement for a compensation program for the families of the victims of the Pan Am bombing over Lockerbie has also helped its image in the U.S. in recent years. Nonetheless, the nuclear issue has now begun to overshadow that progress.
Israel's concern is that Libya, which doesn't have long-distance missiles capable of reaching Israel, could use one of its planes, a ship - or perhaps most dangerous - a terrorist organization to deliver a nuclear weapon, if it does acquire one.