Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Right Wrong No
Direction Track opin.
9/6/02 43 54 4
2/21/02 54 42 4
2/14/99 55 41 4 I wish some follow up questions would be asked to find out what circumstances are causing shifts like these. Are the "wrong track" issues something largely apolitical like child kidnappings, or are they more along the lines of congressional conduct or financial scandals? Looking at the answers to other questions, if the wrong track trend is political in nature the public might be seeing the Democrats as a reason for the wrong track. They did not fare as well in this poll as Republicans in the various areas where questions were asked.Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling...?
Approve Disapprove No opin. a. The economy 54 42 4 b. Environmental issues 53 40 7 c. Education 62 30 8 d. The federal budget 50 41 9 e. The U.S. campaign against terrorism 70 28 3 f. Social Security 47 37 16Considering how the media tries to portray Bush as an enemy to most of the issues, these seem to be decent numbers across the board.
Right now, are you inclined to vote to re-elect your representative in Congress in the next election, or are you inclined to look around for someone else to vote for?
Re-elect Look around Depends (vol.) No opin. 9/6/02 43 43 7 7 2/21/02 40 48 7 6
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of:
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion a. The Republican party 57 37 6 b. The Democratic party 49 43 7
Trend:
a. The Republican Party
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 9/6/02 57 37 6 1/27/02 63 30 7 7/30/01 51 46 3
b. The Democratic Party
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 9/6/02 49 43 7 1/27/02 56 36 8 7/30/01 60 36 4
Pre and post 9-11 numbers are interesting contrasts. While both parties have slipped, the Republicans have kept the more favorable impression overall, still up over pre 9-11 numbers. The numbers for the Democrats are not good news for them. This could bode a decent advantage in the upcoming elections for the Republicans gaining back the Senate and increasing seats in the House. With the new focus on Iraq, this will likely only get better.
If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being
held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican
candidate) in your congressional district? (IF OTHER, NEITHER, DK, REF)
Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican
candidate)?
Net Leaned Vote:
Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No
cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op.
9/6/02 All 41 49 1 2 1 5
7/15/02 All 47 45 1 1 1 4
7/15/02 RV 47 46 1 1 1 4 Compare to:
Registered voters:
Net leaned vote:
Neither Wouldn't
Democrat Republican (vol.) vote (vol.) No opin.
1/27/02 43 50 2 1 5 Considering that "likely voter" trends tend to break for Republicans, these numbers which don't even account for voting habits could be VERY good news indeed.This is by far the most important question, IMHO. In order for the Rats to win back the House, they have to win a sizable majority of the truly "up-for-grabs" seats, and in order to keep the Senate they can't lose a single seat. If the incumbent races question remains a virtual tie or continues trending downward in the "throw the bums out" direction overall, then we win, even before you factor in all the things like the built-in Rat poll bias, MOE, etc. The overall GOP favorability ratings and individual "vote GOP or Dem" questions attest to it. The more volatility in the "keep or dump your Congressman" area, the more Republicans will win.
Barring some sort of major event between now and election day, I don't see how the Rats can turn this around.