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Extreme Cold Over South Pole Reveals Global Warming Models Are Wrong
Space Daily ^
Posted on 09/12/2002 3:42:25 PM PDT by Mr. Mojo
AUCKLAND (AFP) Sep 10, 2002 A discovery that it is much colder over the South Pole than believed has exposed a major flaw in the computer models used to predict global warming, a new scientific paper claims. US scientists based at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station say they have measured the temperature of the atmosphere 30 to 110 kilometres (18 to 68 miles) over the pole and found it is 20 to 30 degrees Centigrade (36 to 54 degrees Fahrenheit relative) colder than computer models showed.
Various models are used to predict global climate and some assumptions have had to be made, including air temperatures over Antarctica.
Chester Gardner, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Illinois, Weilin Pan, a doctoral student at Illinois and Ray Roble of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research writing in the American Geophysical Union Letters say the models are wrong.
"Because of the obvious challenges, until now, the only temperature data we have had from either the North or South Poles has been from surface measurements and weather balloons that don't go any higher than about 20-30 kilometres (12-18 miles)," Gardner told AFP.
The researchers used a laser radar system from the South Pole to make the first measurements of the temperature higher up and found it was much colder than assumed.
Global warming could be caused by greater concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) which is a strong absorber of infrared radiation.
In the lower atmosphere CO2 absorbs the heat. While CO2 also emits heat other CO2 absorbs it. In the thinner stratosphere and mesosphere, much of the heat emitted by CO2 is radiated into space and so in the upper atmosphere the primary affect of CO2 is cooling.
"Thus as CO2 levels continue to rise in the atmosphere, we expect the lower atmosphere to continue warming while the upper atmosphere ... will cool."
During winter Antarctica receives little sunlight and its atmosphere is sealed off by a vortex of winds preventing warmer air from lower latitudes travelling to the pole.
"As a consequence the region cools to very low temperatures in winter, primarily by radiation of heat into space."
In May, June and July the stratopause was considerably colder than model predictions. The greatest difference occurred in July, when the measured stratopause temperature was about minus 17 degrees C (0 degrees F) to about 4 degrees C (40 degrees F) predicted by the models.
"Current global circulation models apparently over-predict the amount of down-welling, because they show warmer temperatures than we observed," Gardner said.
Their measurements will be a baseline for future temperature studies.
"We believe a major flaw in current models is the way they account for compressional heating associated with down welling over the polar cap in winter," Gardner said.
"Of course you and I are really not interested in what happens above the South Pole. We do care about what happens where we live. Models can help predict those changes due to rising CO2 levels but only if we believe they give accurate results.
"Our South Pole measurements will help the modellers and theoreticians better understand the atmosphere and incorporate that understanding in their models, making their future predictions more accurate."
TOPICS: Culture/Society; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
posted on 09/12/2002 3:42:25 PM PDT
by Mr. Mojo
That's what we have been saying all along!
Oh My! The greenie-weenies are not going to be pleased. Oh well, they'll just dismiss this finding like they do everything else that points out how vapid they are.
posted on 09/12/2002 3:47:58 PM PDT
Oh my gosh! The truth is out! Bury this story, quick. < / sarcasm>
To: VRW Conspirator
Oh my gosh! The truth is out! Bury this story, quick
dont think the mainstream media isnt already flushing this story it will be the same old global warning mantra by the greens remember these are anti capitalist wacko's with an agenda facts mean nothing to them
I haven't seen this in the wires or major papers yet, anybody else? I guess the major media must think it's simply a VRWC trick, not a scientific observation with immense geopolitical implications.
A Google News search found mention in only:
The Washington Times
Minneapolis Star Tribune
iAfrica (South Africa)
I guess the media is too busy spinning 911 to cover the news. Un-be-liev-able
HHHHAAAA!! Of course they are wrong! What ever stirs fear and drives the masses for more money....they will do it.
posted on 09/12/2002 4:17:55 PM PDT
To: *Global Warming Hoax
I knew nothing about this story until I saw it on Brit Hume's show on FOX an hour ago. I immediately searched the database on FR --- nada. Then I Googled and came up with the same sources you did. This story is HUGE, imo, and the fact that it's being kaboshed in most of the major media is just despicable.
posted on 09/12/2002 4:39:11 PM PDT
by Mr. Mojo
You don't understand. The extreme cold is because of global warming. I don't have any proof of that, but I don't need any. It's just like the droughts. They are proof of global warming, as are monsoons, tornados, lack of tornados, freezing rain, non-freezing rain, sunshine and cloudiness.
Furthermore, it's all George Bush's fault, except for the parts that are Reagan's fault, Henry Ford's fault, and Dick Cheney's.
SEND ME MONEY!!!!!
posted on 09/12/2002 4:58:17 PM PDT
You forgot Nixon. Leftists always seem to find a way to implicate him somehow.
posted on 09/12/2002 5:02:54 PM PDT
by Mr. Mojo
Of course the globe is warming.....
After the ice age, some say 10,000 years ago when huge glaciers began melting.....well I live in Alaska, and their still melting.... not in the winter of course.
But, the globe is warming alright or the glaciers would'nt have started melting. However if you're in the NOW generation, over twenty years is a long time....Duh!
Who knows in twenty more years it could START cold-ing... Then they'll be running around bleating,,,,,,,
WE'RE ALL GOING TO FREEZE TO DEATH, blah, blah, blah...
"99% of the game is half mental" - Yogi Berra
posted on 09/12/2002 5:18:54 PM PDT
That's the thing about liberals--you can't confuse them with facts. If there were political gains to be made, they'd be screaming about global warming even if it snowed in L.A. on July 4th.
As a modeler (power grid, much simpler) I can tell you that no model is worth using for forcasting untill it can reasonable accuratly backcast (that is to say 'predict' historical behavior with only data from before the study period, any study period).
To my knowledge global warming models all have problems with this. They can backcast one window (by tuning the model to the known results wanted, applying finnaglers constant mostly) but as soon as you change the backcast window the results are junk.
posted on 09/12/2002 5:29:09 PM PDT
Syndicated radio talk show host Larry Elder always likes to say "facts to a liberal are like kryptonite to Superman." ....I'm not sure if he coined it.
posted on 09/12/2002 5:31:26 PM PDT
by Mr. Mojo
One of the very few papers (in the world) without a liberal agenda.
posted on 09/12/2002 8:27:26 PM PDT
by Mr. Mojo
To: VRW Conspirator
No you're wrong. I have copies of the N.Y Times and the Wash Post right here and ...hmmmmmmm...can't seem to find the story anywhere. Well it's got to be on the major network news....hmmmm.... saw the news last night and no mention. Well I just can't believe that liberal news organizations would quash stories that contradict their cherished beliefs. (yuk,yuk)
Here is the article
So, I'm NOT crazy after all! Thanks so much for looking for this. I'm going to bookmark it!
posted on 09/15/2002 5:44:00 PM PDT
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