Senate Still Too Close to Call; Dems Need Minor Miracle in the House! (My title)

Center for Politics ^ | 9/13/2002 | Larry Sabato

[Congressman Billybob]

The first link under my signature is the latest issue of the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries. My 3,200-word article with charts and graphs, is the cover story. As said, first link below:

Congressman Billybob

Click for major article on turnover in the House of Representatives: "Til Death Do Us Part."

Click for latest column: "The Star-Spangled Banner, Part II, & More Lies from the Media"

[Diddle E. Squat]

I dunno. Maybe I'm the only one, but right now I don't see the war making that big a difference come Nov. 5th. The Democrats are not being perceived as openly opposed to it, but rather are getting away with their usual mushy/muddy/imply tactics. And I would be shocked if Daschle delayed a war resolution until after the election. He's not that stupid, and so the war won't be a major issue for the election. What has the GOP done to get the message COMMUNICATED to the average voter that the Dems have weakened our military and obstructed our efforts? Perception matters.

No, my guess is that at some point they'll overwhelmingly pass it, and the Dems will be able to claim they are on board. Of greater fear is that this takes place sometime in October, while the UN/diplomatic side drags its feet until Nov. Then the media shifts to all the DNC spun "local" issues and their fresh pack of lies and accusations, with not enough time left for the GOP to refute and have that refutation filter down to the average voter. Even if the UN moves fast and the war does start, this may be the political danger. And there's no guarantee that some Pandora's negative won't emerge from the start of the war.

Rather than the war, perhaps the single greatest influence that would swing votes would be for Bush to campaign hard. Not just the standard fundraising visits, but personal appeals directly to the voters. Explain how and why he NEEDS them to vote GOP, not just the usual 'vote for them because its my party.' Why it matters on the national level in a way that benefits them, why such overrides more of the same and local issues. The default mode is standing pat to slightly Dem, and it appears only Bush can give them a reason to break that pattern. But he has to communicate it, and actually campaign. He's built up a trust with Americans, and I'm amazed at how many of my liberal friends I've seen come to his defense regarding war, though they usually have the caveat that "While I disagree with him on many issues..." But with that trust for some has come a new assessment and willingness to listen. By an earnest and well reasoned appeal, Bush can use that trust to persuade some to swing on other issues. He did it before with Soc. Security privatization, and that was before the war trust. And remember, he doesn't have to persuade alot of the moderates and libs, but rather a few percent.

How bad does he want the Senate? He's been saving political capital, he's a patient man, but without the Senate he will be unable to achieve anything approaching the bold reforms needed to redefine the GOP. That's why we are painfully inching along now, the GOP does not seem to be able to communicate a message with widespread appeal that differentiates itself from the past. So we just float slowly down the same currents. While I've seen no evidence that this will take place, my gut feeling is that Bush is trying to wrap up war preparation this month, and that he will actively campaign for the GOP across the country in Oct. Which is another reason I suspect Daschle is trying to drag out the war debate as long as possible.

We'll see.

[Pushi]

I pray you are right. I know you are right--I mean I pray you are correct.

[Pushi]

It can with Saddam being overthrown on September 28.

[Pushi]

The war will have been over for weeks before November 5.

[sultan88]

Check out your boy Sabato's analysis.

[WRhine]

I think The Torch had an edge in both debates (well in the second one I just listened to the tail end just now on the CSPAN site

Torie, I saw most of the 2nd debate and IMO Forrester beat The Torch soundly. The Torch came off as desperate and off balanced most of the time. He constantly brought up his pro-choice positions and other liberal baggage like “the environment”. This is a rather telling sign that the Torch is still worried about his democratic base. Forrester by contrast seemed more confident and on message.

[Mudboy Slim]

"The war will have been over for weeks before November 5."

Yep...this ain't gonna be no Somalia!! We're goin' in like we mean business and a large share of the Iraqis will welcome us as Liberators from an Ogre!!

FReegards...MUD

[Mudboy Slim]

"The Torch came off as desperate and off balanced most of the time."

If I knew I'd been publicly-exposed as a MafiaWhore, I reckon I'd be a bit off-balance myself...the most telling Indictment is that the Senate hasn't ordered Torricelli's Resignation already!! Does NooJoisey feel no shame?!!

FReegards...MUD

[Mudboy Slim]

Sabato, whatta TWIT!! I used to think that dude had some poltical wisdom; however, increasingly I 've seen him as a man with an Agenda towards an ever-expanding Federal Leviathan!! His views are not to be trusted.

FReegards...MUD

[Mudboy Slim]

"Senate is too close to call."

Too close to call, my arse!! GOP's gonna pick up 3-5 seats in the Senate and 20-30 in the House...it's '94 all over again, bay-BEEEE!!!

FReegards...MUD

[WRhine]

If I knew I'd been publicly-exposed as a MafiaWhore, I reckon I'd be a bit off-balance myself...the most telling Indictment is that the Senate hasn't ordered Torricelli's Resignation already!! Does NooJoisey feel no shame?!!

LOL. I guess NOT! Nor does the Senate.

[Mudboy Slim]

"Nor does the Senate."

With a DemonRAT Guv'nuh in NJ, the Senate RATS just wanna git the Torch elected so they can oust him in March, then name his RAT replacement...I think the good folks of New Jersey deserve better!~!

FReegards...MUD

[Mudboy Slim]

"I have said for months they need three to keep Chaffee from bolting."

How STOOOOPID do you reckon Chaffee is to abandon the burgeoning GOP to climb aboard the obsolete USS DemonRAT?!! After November 5, both Zell Miller and Don Breaux will have an excellent justification/opportunity to switch to Independent and Caucus with the GOP...just you watch, young man!!

LOL and FReegards...MUD

[The Person]

Very interesting analysis by Sabato. As I read him, if everything falls as he predicts and Repubs get 1 of the 2 tossup states, Republicans regain control of the Senate.

[WRhine]

With a DemonRAT Guv'nuh in NJ, the Senate RATS just wanna git the Torch elected so they can oust him in March, then name his RAT replacement...I think the good folks of New Jersey deserve better!~!

I think you got the inside track here. It makes a lot of sense.

[The Person]

You'll be interested in iowa electronic market.

Breaking our way

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/Cong02.gif

Actually, it provides strong support for holding the House, but only a 25% chance of taking the Senate.

(Example: RH-NS means Rep House, Non-REp Senate)

[StevieB]

I don't think we need to worry about Chaffee anymore... It seems Chaffee is upset about the judiciary committee not allowing nominations to the full senate floor...

If the Republicans gain two seats Chaffee will stay. No Senator is crazy enough to give up Majority committee positions for the Minority seats. In Washington power often comes before principle ...

[Mudboy Slim]

"...the inside track..."

Yeah...Limbaugh's been spreadin' that scuttlebutt...Forrester needs to ask who McGreevey's gonna pick as the Torch's replacement!!

I say he oughtta name Steve Forbes....LOL!!

FReegards...MUD

[fooman]

I know the level is still lower than sen dem, house rep, but the change is dramatically in our favor