Modality zero. Neither India nor Pakistan is so unsophisticated as to confuse an asteroid with a nuke strike. The explosion over the Indian Ocean actually was a nuke test as it turns out.
Well, I think the contention was that during high tension, they might not take the time to be sure. As for the Indian Ocean (Reagan era) explosion, I never heard that the analysis was changed from an asteroid to a nuke test. Where'd you read that?
I did a quick Web search and found out about the 1979 Vela detection of an explosion that has been labeled a South African nuke test by a lot of people. But though I remember reading about it, I can't find any Web pages about an explosion over the Indian Ocean that caused the DoD to think about waking up President Reagan in the middle of the night. But I know it happened. Oh well.
Experts Demand Better Asteriod Alert
(Page has bad formatting with Netscape; use IE).
Annotated: "On February 1, 1994, high over the Western Pacific, a huge fireball from space exploded with the equivalent energy of a 40-kiloton bomb -- twice the power of the atom bomb dropped on Hiroshima near the end of World War 2."
"So large was the blast that U.S. military satellites and military brass believed a nuclear device had detonated.
"Up the chain of command went the worrisome code word "NUDENT" -- military jargon for nuclear detonation. Word in intelligence circles was that President Clinton was awoken that night by senior advisors."