ALERT: Hurricane Isidore forecasted to have at least 150 MPH winds within 72 hours

[newsperson999]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2002

Air Force recon data indicate major Hurricane Isidore has continued to rapidly strengthen and the central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A pressure of 946 mb generally corresponds to a maximum wind of about 117 kt. However...the eye is open to the west and there may be a lag in the wind field. Also...dropsonde data indicated about 105 kt surface winds...but winds just a few hundred above the surface have been as high as 130 kt. The three satellite agencies reported a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of t6.0...or 115 kt...while the 3-hour objective Dvorak T-number was also t6.0. Based on this information...the initial intensity was increased to 110 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/3. Recon fix positons since about 12z indicate Isidore has actually remained nearly stationary the past 6 hours...but right over some of the hottest water in the Atlantic Basin. Steering currents remain weak and are forecast by all of the global to remain weak or even get weaker. Isidore remains caught between a mid- to upper-level low east of Florida and one to the west over the Bay of Campeche. A weak and narrow low- to mid-level ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Florida westward to Texas. Given the relative weakness of this ridge...only 5880 meters at 500 mb...it would not take much of a shortwave trough to erode it and allow Isidore to drift slowly poleward. All of the NHC model guidance...except LBAR...keeps Isidore moving on a slow west or west-southwest track through the forecast period. The AVN and GFDL are very similar in hooking Isidore to the southwest around the western Yucatan Peninsula in 36 to 48 hours. This may be some artifact of terrain interaction which I have ignored for this advisory package since all of the global models show no significant ridging north of isiodre to push the system to southwest. The forecast calls for a slow...less than 6 kt...motion throughout the forecast period with a slight west-northwestward motion after 48 hours as a strong shortwave trough drops down the west side of the broad longwave trough...which is expected to erode the weak ridge over Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico and allow Isidore to gain some latitude. However... the slower Isidore moves during the next 36 to 48 hours will determine just how far north and the cyclone will move in the longer time periods beyond 72 hours. The good news is that it appears that Isidore is not going to go anywhere fast. The bad news is that it will remain over very hot water.

The central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A typical rapid intensification period. This trend would normally continue for another 12 hours or so...but radar and recon data indicate that the eye is open to the west and that an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting. As such...the official intensity forecast is held below the ships intensity model which brings Isidore to 135 kt in 36 hours and 140 kt in 60 hours. This type of intensification is certainly possible given the low shear...less than 6 kt...and high SSTs...about 30c/86f. However...predicting internal convective changes is nealry impossible so there could be flucuations by as much 10 kt either way from the offical intensity forecast. Some coastal upwelling may weaken the hurricane slightly as it moves west of 88w longitude...but then some restrengtnening is forecast after 48 hours when Isidore is forecast to move back over warmer water.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 21/2100z 21.9n 86.2w 110 kts
12hr VT 22/0600z 21.9n 87.0w 120 kts
24hr VT 22/1800z 21.9n 88.0w 125 kts
36hr VT 23/0600z 21.9n 89.2w 125 kts
48hr VT 23/1800z 22.0n 90.3w 125 kts
72hr VT 24/1800z 22.5n 92.5w 130 kts

[buffyt]

How do you want your crow cooked? Rare or well-done?

[Ditter]

It may be rare for a hurricane in the Atlantic to hit the east coast, this time of year, but where is a hurricane in the Gulf going to go? They don't usually die out or turn around & go back the way they came.

[buffyt]

The latest hurricane to strike the United States was late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida.

Hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl persisted into September 27th, 1998 as hurricanes. One hundred five years earlier, on August 22, 1893 four hurricanes co-existed, one of them killing an estimated 1,000-2,000 people in Georgia-South Carolina. On September 11, 1961, three hurricanes and possibly a fourth occurred simultaneously. The only other years after 1900 with three hurricanes on the map at the same time were 1950 and 1967. In 1971 from September 10 to 12, there were five tropical cyclones at the same time; however, while most of these ultimately achieved hurricane intensity, there were never more than two hurricanes at any one time.

For the United States,

September has had more major hurricanes than all other months combined. However, four of the most devastating hurricanes did not occur in September--Andrew (August 1992), Camille (August 1969), Audrey (June 1957), and Hazel (October 1954). Only in Texas and Louisiana are major hurricanes in August and September almost an equal threat. Most major October hurricanes occur in southern Florida.

[buffyt]

That Tropical Storm we had earlier this month on the Texas Gulf coast was bad enough for me! We stayed home and it was plenty scary! It was messy too. Winds were blowing sideways, thunder, lightening, 24 inches of rain. And it has rained there all summer so the ground is already saturated. Not a good combo.

[SamAdams76]

What do you mean? I never said this hurricane wouldn't hit (and it hasn't hit yet) and even if it does, I will remain correct. Hurricanes hitting the U.S. coast after Sept. 25 is a rare event. But since you are serving up crow, I'll take it well done. I never turn down a home-cooked meal.

[raygun]

Why would that be a problem? I know Tampa is on the W coast of FL.

[Bubba_Leroy]

The worst hurricane in American history occurred in September. It was the September 8, 1900 hurricane that killed 6,000 people in Galveston.

See http://www.1900storm.com/

[DentsRun]

Hmmm...a beeline for the ranch at Crawford. There really could be "no cattle" there soon. It is best to bless Israel, really it is. Pray for Bush to repent.

What did Bush do to Israel?

[Steve0113]

where is a hurricane in the Gulf going to go? They don't usually die out or turn around & go back the way they came.

That's been on my mind all day. The hurricane is not going to lose strength until it moves onshore, and that's where people are going to die. I've been praying for whoever lives where it hits.

[2sheep]

>>>Hmmm...a beeline for the ranch at Crawford. There really could be "no cattle" there soon. It is best to bless Israel, really it is. Pray for Bush to repent.

>What did Bush do to Israel?

In Tune with the Quartet
Great powers unveil Mideast peace plan

De 7:25 The graven images of their gods shall ye burn with fire: thou shalt not desire the silver or gold that is on them, nor take it unto thee, lest thou be snared therein: for it is an abomination to the LORD thy God.

Pr 6:27 Can a man take fire in his bosom, and his clothes not be burned?

Besides bowing down and dining with Muslims priests in the White House during Ramadam (the "strange gods" factor, Deut. 32:12), the Quartet* this week announced they want to set up a Palestinian state (likely candidate for the "abomination of desolation") in the middle of Israel by 2003.  This seriously provokes the Most High G~d.  Consequences are on the way.  Incidentally, Tim Snodgrass' visions show America cut down the middle by a major quake at New Madrid because Bush wants to cut Israel down the middle. (See New Madrid and Earth Changes link here:  #76 on this thread.)

*Quartet:  US, UN, EU and Russia (Read the book of Daniel, paying attention to the word "four".)

This received from a friend:

This one's gonna hurt! Did you read this weeks parsha?
The same week the "Madrid Quartet"talks about a pali state in 2003, (that's pretty fast)...
The web site Mayim Hayim has Messianic Torah portions w/NT and here's Sukkot.

Lev. 22:26-23:44
Num. 29:12-16
Zechariah 14:1-21 !!!
Revelation 7:1-10 !!!!

There's really not many warnings left..."

Ge 12:3 And I will bless them that bless thee, and curse him that curseth thee: and in thee shall all families of the earth be blessed.

Zec 12:9 And it shall come to pass in that day, that I will seek to destroy all the nations that come against Jerusalem.

Study up.  Repent hard.  Time is short.

[RedBloodedAmerican]

People who know President Bush, KNOW he has a heart for Israel. Don't waste time on self righteous people who pass judgement on those with a heart for God.

[NELSON111]

Uhh...I said "Americas"...not "America". I live in In the Galveston area and know all about the 1900 storm (even read Isaac's storm)...plus I'm a tropical meteorologist. The 1900 storm killed 6000-8000. Mitch killed upwards of 15,000-20,000...thus making it the deadliest storm in the AMERICAS...note the lack of a "'" between the a and the s;-)

[DaGman]

Here's the 11 pm discussion. The storm has turned somewhat unexpectedly further south and is inland around Merida.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 230237
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002

THE CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST TRACK...AND MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN A FEW HOURS AGO.  THUS THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER.  ASIDE FROM THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ISIDORE TO RECOVER ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY AND MORE...PRESUMING THAT IT RE-ENTERS THE GULF TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECASTS BY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE BACK TO THOSE SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FORECASTING HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES.  IF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE IS SEVERELY DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONES TRANSIT OVER LAND...IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED.

THE FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND CURRENT MOTION IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...220/4.  THE MORE SOUTHERLY 
MOTION WAS PROBABLY THE RESULT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ISIDORE.  GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL HURRICANE 
MODEL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST 
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD 
BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF ISIDORE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A MORE 
NORTHWARD MOTION.  NOT MUCH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED 
UNTIL A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM...PROBABLY 
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE THREE-DAY FORECAST POINT IMPLIES AN EVENTUAL THREAT TO EITHER 
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...HOWEVER IT IS STILL 
TOO EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE THREAT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 20.8N  89.5W    90 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 20.7N  90.3W    80 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  91.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 21.8N  92.0W   115 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 22.8N  92.5W   125 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N  93.0W   125 KTS
 
 


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[ChadGore]

Let's send aid to Mexico.

[American in Israel]

I too wondered what the answer to the quartets tune would be. When the hurricane suddenly formed I guessed that It might be but was not sure what relationship it had to the speech. Your pointing out the target in its path brought it into focus.

You know, It is one thing when I irritate God due to some careless remark, but quite another when you are a president. Glad I do not have that job.

Thanks for the great post.

[WoofDog123]

Most people will not act until a threat is defined and real. In any given part of the gulf coast, a real close-call (being in probable landfall area 24 hrs out) on a hurricane landfall may only take place once in 3-4 or more years, and being in the landfall area might only happen once in 10 or more years (I have had one in 8 years of hurricane-coast living), so this isn't something you have to expect in SOME capacity annually, unlike winter. I live north of Miami now, and the last real landfall threat I remember was 99 or 98, I cannot recall now. So no, it isn't analogous to preparing for winter storms. What if winter only came randomly every 4 years or so, and missed you most of the time? Without winter, or at least no winter within 500 miles of you, winter storms wouldn't be much of a worry.

FWIW, i was in hr. elena in biloxi in 1985; we didn't have power or water for days afterwards, but at least we had an intact residence to go home to. Some neighbors had parts of trees in theirs. We got to go to the shelter twice on Keesler for that one since it east a few days after nearly landing, then came back.

[WoofDog123]

Adding to Ditter's comment "So getting the house ready to leave it takes time, boarding up windows & such things. No often times people in the path of one don't have 72 hours"

You realize that looting is a problem after hurricane impacts? When you evacuate, once the storm passes it may be a day or more before you can go home as roads are cleared, major power-line hazards addressed, etc. During this time your home may be robbed, and some of the preparation you were doing at the last minute was with this in mind. If your home was damaged, facilitating entry, this is even more likely.

[Bubba_Leroy]

I wasn't trying to correct you. In one post you listed some of the hurricanes that had occurred in September. I was just adding that one to the list.

[SamAdams76]

It may be rare for a hurricane in the Atlantic to hit the east coast, this time of year, but where is a hurricane in the Gulf going to go? They don't usually die out or turn around & go back the way they came.

Sometimes they just peter out and turn into nothing more than a soaking rainstorm. Especially after September 25th.

[SamAdams76]

How do you want your crow cooked? Rare or well-done?

Since the much feared hurricane turned into nothing more than a soaking rainstorm, I think you may have "crowed" too soon.