Posted on 09/29/2002 7:22:09 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Poll shows Baucus in lead
BY CHARLES S. JOHNSON
Gazette State Bureau
HELENA - U.S. Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., has mounted a wide lead over his Republican challenger, state Sen. Mike Taylor, a new Gazette State Bureau poll of Montana voters shows.
The poll showed Baucus, who is seeking his fifth Senate term, topping Taylor by a 54 percent to 35 percent margin, with 10 percent of the voters undecided. Green Party candidate Robert Kelleher was at 1 percent, while Libertarian Stan Jones had zero.
Taken Tuesday through Thursday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., of Washington, D.C., the poll surveyed 626 Montana registered voters who said they intended to vote in the general election. This poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
"Baucus is running over 50 percent," said Brad Coker, managing director of the polling company. "There's not enough undecided voters now to swing it to Taylor."
Baucus' lead in the latest poll is nearly identical to what it was in a Gazette State Bureau poll taken Dec. 14-17, 2001. In December, the poll, which also had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, showed Baucus topping Taylor 54 percent to 34 percent, with 13 percent undecided.
Coker said a separate name-identification question on the poll illustrated the trouble faced by Taylor. The question asked whether people recognized the names of Baucus and Taylor and whether they had a favorable, unfavorable or neutral reaction. It showed that 55 percent had a favorable reaction to Baucus' name and 21 percent unfavorable, with 22 percent neutral and 2 percent not recognizing the name. The poll showed that while 27 percent of Montanans had favorable recognition of the Republican's name, 24 percent had unfavorable reactions, while 39 percent were neutral and 10 percent don't recognize the name.
"Taylor's got some problems with high negatives," Coker said. "You usually want your favorable twice as high as your unfavorable. Anything less that 2-to-1 is not impressive. Unpopular incumbents tend to get 1-to-1 ratios of favorable to unfavorable."
The matchup question with the four Senate candidates showed Baucus fared slightly better among women, with 57 percent favoring his candidacy, while 51 percent of men backed Baucus.
Taylor polled slightly better among men than women, with 37 percent of male Montanans backing him, along with 33 percent of the females. Among the undecided voters, 11 percent were men and 9 percent women.
Given how Republican George W. Bush carried Montana by a 58 percent to 33 percent margin over Democrat Al Gore in 2000, "you would have expected a much tighter Senate rate, a tighter challenge," Coker said.
Last year, Baucus worked hard to help Bush pass his $1.35 trillion tax cut over 10 years over the opposition of some Senate Democrats. This year, he drew praise from Bush for his help in passing a major trade bill the administration sought.
In his ads, Baucus has used footage from a bill-signing ceremony this summer in which Bush praises Baucus for "the fantastic work" on the trade bill.
Although Vice President Dick Cheney, Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., and Republican National Chairman and former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot have trekked to Montana to help Taylor raise money, the Republican candidate so far has not been able to get Bush to campaign in the state on his behalf.
Baucus, the state's top Democrat and senior elected official, has refused to debate Taylor one-on-one, saying he will participate in four debates with all four Senate candidates. Three debates already have taken place, with the fourth canceled because of a dispute over the ground rules led Taylor to pull out.
Although Baucus initially was ranked as one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in early lists published by political groups, the race is now leaning in his favor in ratings published by the Cook Political Report.
As chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Baucus has reeled in record donations from special-interest political action committees and far outspent Taylor, himself a self-made millionaire.
Through June 30, Baucus had raised $5.6 million, spent $3.4 million and had $2.2 million left in the bank, with PACs accounting for $2.5 million, or 45 percent of his money.
Taylor, of Rollins, made his fortune in the hair-care and beauty salon industry. He has raised $861,414 - with $551,200 from himself in loans and donations - and spent $737,418 to leave $123,996 in the bank.
In the Montana Legislature, Taylor sponsored a large property tax cut on business equipment that passed in 1999. Taylor has said Baucus can't win if Republicans remain in the party fold and back him, but Baucus has drawn support from a number of GOP businessmen, bankers and highway contractors.
Kelleher is a Butte attorney who was a delegate to the 1972 Montana Constitutional Convention and is a frequent candidate. Jones is a Bozeman businessman who ran as a Libertarian for governor in 2000.
It's about time we got a poll out of Montana! Unfortunately, the results are not what I was hoping for. Montana was the biggest lost opportunity for the GOP this cycle. Had Marc Racicot run in this election, it likely would have been a GOP pick-up.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
Win one for the Gipper! God Bless You Reagan, We Will Never Forget Your Great Service and Leadership - We here on FR will carry on your great work with diligence. Thanks for the Memories and Inspiration!
Yes, but to everyone who says this I say Oregon would probably have gone Dem had Kitzhaber run against Smith. Call it even! :-)
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