Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[My Favorite Headache]

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LILI HAS DROPPED TO 941 MB WITH
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 131 KT. LILI IS THUS UPGRADED TO A 115 KT
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THE TRACK...WIND RADII...AND
WARNINGS ARE THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

[Damocles]

Buckle up! Here we go...

[john316]

didn't believe you at first, so I just verified it. It looks like I missed the 13:00 update.

[Tall_Texan]

Mercifully, it looks like it will tear up the Louisiana swamp between Lake Charles and Lafayette (if you believe the Weather Channel). No offense to anyone but there ain't a lot to hit around there. Lots of rain and flooding though, particularly so soon after Isidore.

[My Favorite Headache]

...LILI STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY TO DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND...AND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LILI A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 150 MILES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LILI.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. THIS SURGE COULD SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS THE LOW- LYING AREAS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF LILI.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.3 N... 89.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 941 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

What does this mean for low-lying "Nawleans"?

[Quilla]

It seems like just before I left for lunch, Lili was upgraded to a cat. 3. Now it's a cat. 4! This incredible build up is pretty frightening. I sure hope she takes a cue from Opal and drops drastically before making landfall.

[Cold Heat]

Well, looks like I need to batton down the hatches as well. SE Arkansas is likely to get hammered, as we have in the past. Damn pecan trees!

My grand kids are in Laplace LA in the line of fire as well although not a direct hit.(I hope)

Look out Piggly Wiggly! Here I come!

[john316]

I don't think the LA folks will have any such luck. As for me I just hope she make the turn tonight.

[Lokibob]

New Orleans has dikes built for a cat 3.

Let us pray that it remains west of NO.

[dennis1x]

at its current heading the furthest west it would hit is the Tx, La border so no actual turn north is needed to miss Galveston.

[b fair]

"It seems like just before I left for lunch, Lili was upgraded to a cat. 3. Now it's a cat. 4! "

Thats probably because Hurricane Hunter only just arrived on scene.

[Cold Heat]

The East side of the storm is the worst as far as wind and tornados. NO will be ok except for the stormy weather. The folks in Lafayette are in jepardy now. The flooding will be a ass kicker.

[dennis1x]

Pressure has leveled at 941mb the last 2 hours.

[b4its2late]

From Drudge....

BIG LILI TO HIT 150+ MPH

[dennis1x]

Flooding will be bad; however, storm is moving at a good clip and is small which will somewhat limit the extent of rainfall.

[WillVoteForFood]

Her forward speed has slowed over the day. Is that an indicator that she is getting ready to turn?

[Quilla]

It looks like we in Dothan (that tiny spot on Yahoo maps) will miss most of this. I'll feel the effects financially though. As a manufacurer, I buy several truckloads of lumber each month. Whenever a large hurricane hits our shores, lumber prices rise 25-30% overnight, even before actual supply and demand have a chance to act. If Lili indeed remains this strong, I'll have to buy up a couple of months worth of raw material early tomorrow to beat the gougers at their own game.

[My Favorite Headache]

It will be Andrew Part 2. Watch.

[Cold Heat]

Rainfall is not a major problem in LA. They measure their monthly rain in feet and not inches. It really is the tidal flooding. It wipes out everything 100%.

[Frapster]

That's my fear. This has the potential to be really bad. Hopefully people will clear out and evacuate.

[Cold Heat]

LOL! I am very familiar with Circle City. Nice place!

[My Favorite Headache]

She is literally building her own high pressure system to the effect that dry air trying to penetrate her from the west is having ZERO effect.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

When I was about 6 or 7, (1966 or 1967?) we holed up in a motel in Dothan, on our way from IL to FLA, because of a hurricane. (This was before the days of plentiful interstates.) Anyone remember the name of that hurricane?

[Lokibob]

Weather buoy data. peak gust 64 knots and wave height 25 feet.

Conditions at 42001 as of
(1:00 pm CDT)
1800 GMT on 10/02/2002: Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 52.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 64.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 25.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.39 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.29 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 °F

[1Old Pro]

[Cold Heat]

Audry?or Camille

[jbstrick]

There is a large oil refinery in Lake Charles

[Cold Heat]

I am in that square county just north east of ElDorado AR, and just south of Pine Bluff. I can see my house!LOL

[TX Bluebonnet]

I was just wondering about the offshore oil platforms. Do they shut them down and evacuate?

[Liberal Classic]

Ping!

[johnb838]

Might have been Alma

[Xenalyte]

Here in Houston, on KTRH 740 AM at around 12:15 Central, the weather dude wouldn't forecast for tomorrow. He said everything depends on Lili, and we have NO FREAKIN IDEA what'll be happening 12 hours from now.

(Okay, he wasn't quite that emphatic, but he still wouldn't tell me tomorrow's forecast.)

[kinghorse]

Oh but the all knowing weather service said conditions were not favorable for strengthening beyond 115 MPH due to water temps etc. Do not trust anyone but yourself when making the decision to stay or leave. Personally I would be out of Galveston already. If you wait til they say "oops", your screwed and will end up stranded on the causeway bridge or some overpass sharing a personal moment with snakes, spiders and all sorts of other vermin. I think Galveston Emergency Response and the Mayors office are showing poor leadership on this one. Since when were weathermen accurate anyway?

[Cold Heat]

They leave a skeleton crew on tripletime!

[js1138]

I think Galveston Emergency Response and the Mayors office are showing poor leadership on this one.

Perhaps algore is down there in person advising them.

[1Old Pro]

My prediction: Rain, and lots of it. Turn off your sprinklers.

[Types_with_Fist]

Here is what the story actually says: "HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 150 MILES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LILI."

Thanks for scaring up the hits Matt...

[dennis1x]

so far this storm has moved exactly as predicted. on its current heading Galveston will be out of danger and there is no weather feature that should turn Lili back to the west. a more northerly component should develop over time and leave Galveston 200 miles from landfall.

[dennis1x]

If it hit as a 135mph storm, wind gusts in excess of 150mph would be a guarantee.

[b fair]

"Since when were weathermen accurate anyway?"

Why do you think a lot of us in the aviation comunity call the weather bureau and ask for the official guess.

[Types_with_Fist]

You are probably correct, but there is nothing in the story about 150mph

[sinclair]

“Mercifully, it looks like it will tear up the Louisiana swamp between Lake Charles and Lafayette (if you believe the Weather Channel). No offense to anyone but there ain't a lot to hit around there.”

Having grown up right smack dab in the middle of the location you refer to and remembering a hurricane by the name of Audry that hit in 1958 and followed almost the exact predicted path, I can assure there is a lot to hit there. Very little swamp area there.

[Cold Heat]

LOL! YUP!

I got roof damage from that last one that got up here. The trees do not like being blown in a strange direction. And man am I treed in. Totally covered up by 150 foot high oak and elm with pecan trees for bushes.

[jpsb]

They sure are betting the farm (ours) on "the turn". Just hear that Galveston "worst case" is 40 to 50 mph. That is there WORST CASE! Guess they know something we don't.

[JSpears]

I believe that was Beulah...

But it went ashore in S. Texas

[dennis1x]

and you are probably right, he drew the 150+ from the 150 miles inland wording. drudge is a joke as we all know.

[Catspaw]

A good friend of mine lived in Lake Chuck. He had a house with massive water damage out of a hurricane (don't ask me which one--I'd say it was one in the late 80's, early 90's).

He and his wife now live in Phoenix.

[dennis1x]

i hate to sound like a broken record, but all the turn needed to keep Galveston a ways away has already happened, just check the position 12 hours ago and draw a line through the current position.