Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[wardaddy]

Yep...Hurricanes move sort of like an spinning top don't they?

The NE front cloud pattern leads doesn't it?....usually?

I'm no meterologist...not even an armchair one but wouldn't the predominate pattern of high pressure moving from NW to SE this time of year tend to cause a greater chance for north or northeast movement as it approaches landfall versus a westward tack into those customary NW originated high pressure cells coming from the Plains. I know they always tack NE after landfall on the northern Gulf.

[CedarDave]

Yeah. Need to make one official, keep it in the top 20 of breaking news, keep the graphics off, and lock any new ones.

[john316]

Latest satellite imagery indicates that Lili is following along the forecast track and has begun a gradual turn to the NW-NNW this afternoon. We've noticed about a 15 degree directional change in the past 2-3 hours - from 306 degrees to 321 degrees. Since the forward speed has remained a steady 17-18 mph, we have moved the time of landfall up to around 11am CDT Thursday between Vermilion Bay and Cameron, LA. We've adjusted the track just slightly to the east on this advisory to reflect the gradual turn in progress. This track takes Lili about 50 miles east of Lake Charles, 30 miles west of Lafayette, and about 130 miles west of downtown New Orleans early Thursday afternoon.


Lili's core with winds of 60-145 mph winds has decreased in size to about 80-90 miles in diameter this afternoon. So the area within 40-50 miles of the point of landfall will experience the most severe winds. Hurricane-force winds or greater will extend 30-40 miles east of the center and about 20-30 miles west of the center at landfall. Tropical storm-force winds will extend out to about 140-150 miles east of the center and about 120-130 miles west of the center at landfall.


We don't see any indications that Lili is continuing to strengthen as quickly as it was this morning, but we do expect that the winds may go up just slightly over the next 6 hours in response to the falling pressures over the past 3-5 hours. Winds should decrease very quickly as Lili races north and northeastward on Thursday evening.

[dennis1x]

you are correct wardaddy, this storm is moving around the periphery of a SE Atlantic High, first W, then NW, then N, then NE.

Pressure down to 938mb, flight winds not quite as strong as last recon.

[Flyer]

Need to make one official, keep it in the top 20 of breaking news, keep the graphics off, and lock any new ones.

Ditto. This is very important info to all that may be affected.

[Black Agnes]

Numbers for officials there...

Contact numbers at Co-Lin Junior College

I'd call ahead just to make sure they're not already full or something...

[mhking]

4 PM CT Advisory from WWL-TV/New Orleans (NHC 4P to follow):

Hurricane Lili 4 p.m. advisory - Lili is now a category-four hurricane. Hurricane Warning in effect from High Island, TX to mouth of Mississippi River. Center is located at latitude 25.9 north, longitude 90.0 west. Lili is moving towards the northwest at 14 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are 135 miles per hour.

[Aggie Mama]

You know, if Lili shifts even a bit, you are in deep dodo--especially being on the dirty side.

[CedarDave]

If that trajectory holds, it would be the best possible scenario for a very bad hurricane. My map shows that it will miss the major population centers in the state, but, of course, devastate small communities south of Jennings. Reminds me of a hurricane that hit south Texas several years ago; affected a mostly sparsely populated area between Corpus and Brownsville, I believe.

[Aggie Mama]

I agree. I asked them this morning to do this and still nothing. I guess "Duped Dads Fighting Child Support" is more important.

[dennis1x]

Lafayette is the biggest community i am concerned with as I have family there, latest advisory shows cat 4 storm even that far inland.

Latest advisory: 140mph sustaind, 165mph gusts, similar track as before

[bigcheese]

its "doo-doo" ... not dodo :-)

[john316]

Yep, I was just talking to a guy about that one and couldn't quite remember the name of storm or the small town in blew away.

[Aggie Mama]

I was in Brownsville at the time for that one and we just managed to get back to Houston before it hit. We would have been stuck there for days, since the King's Highway was impassable for that time.

[Aggie Mama]

Whoops, you're right. I guess I'm not effectively multi-tasking right now. ;)

[wardaddy]

Thanks.

[john316]

Was the town Idianola (sp ?)

[bigcheese]

Its OK... your an aggie.

[dennis1x]

Latest advisory also warning of surge possibly spreading TWENTY-FIVE miles inland at worst point.

[FireTrack]

Here in Central Louisiana, all schools closed and even a fair postponed. No water, bread and etc. left in any of the supermarkets. Bumper to bumper traffic 100 miles inland all headed north (campers, trailers, motorhomes and etc). I've never seen anything like it. I think most folks realize the potential for this one being really bad.