Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[dirtboy]

sustained winds are at 140 - not quite Cat5 yet

Still would have to go up another 20mph to reach cat 5, and the latest discussion says that the formation of concentric eyewalls and the limited outflow to the west would indicated that the current cycle of intensification has levelled off. Of course, they also said that Lili would stay a category 3...

[mhking]

The windspeeds in that discussion just went out the window. Sustained winds are now at 140.

[CedarDave]

They had one on the Lubbock Fox channel over the weekend that looked like she came off the IMF DC protest line. Very young (maybe a Tech student), tall, scraggly, in jeans I think, talked like she had marbles or gum or both in her mouth, and I don't think she could find anything on the map. I was laughing my head off watching. Definitely not ready for prime time!

[mhking]

Of course, they also said that Lili would stay a category 3...

My point exactly. I just pray everyone in the area will be all right.

[dennis1x]

the discussion is what set the 140mph winds.....120kt=150mph

[dennis1x]

120kt=140mph that is.

[Dog Gone]

I assume your family was wise enough to leave Lafayette today. There are far too many big and old trees in every neighborhood.

[dennis1x]

nope..they are staying. it will be rough but unlikely to be deadly (tree fallings are biggest problem). official track takes the eye wall about 20 miles west of them also....i told them its a big gamble. they are inlaws so i have less say in the matter.

[mhking]

Ah...I understand... (stupid me!)

[dennis1x]

those crazy airmen and their knots....

[mhking]

Please, I emplore you - put this at the top of the "Breaking News" header and pin it there; this is a life-threatening situation for many people. This may be one of a limited means of mass communication for some in the affected area.

[Paradox]

nope..they are staying. it will be rough but unlikely to be deadly (tree fallings are biggest problem). official track takes the eye wall about 20 miles west of them also....i told them its a big gamble. they are inlaws so i have less say in the matter.

The main reason I didnt evacuate for Andrew was that up until the last moment, they predictions had it missing my area by a good 50 miles. At the last hour, it made an unexpected turn and whammo...

The margin of error at this stage has got to be huge, I would not put any trust in predictions of safety at this point.

[Conservababe]

And my family is just as stubborn. I swear, as my grandmother always said "if they are still alive, I will kill them myself for worrying me to death". LOL

[dennis1x]

Lafayette is also about 50 miles inland. Most deaths from major hurricanes come from storm surge in coastal areas. Im not sure what I would do if I lived in Lafayette, kind of the border of whether to stay or go. South of there is a no brainer though (new iberia, abbeville, etc..).

[Cold Heat]

Sounds like good advice! I we appreciate it!

[mhking]

Thank you!

[txhurl]

Hurricane winds move where the upper-level winds move them

Well, here's a shot of the Jet Stream, good thru the 3rd, already showing the interaction. From intellicast.

[Conservababe]

We have been there and done that, to no avail. Perhaps Jim Robinson does not realize that, in some ways, he does indeed command a civil defense communications systems.

I hate to say such, but perhaps they are more interested in the Freepathon than this crisis.

[geaux]

Its OK... your an aggie.

Don't you mean "you're an Aggie"? :o)

No one here is particularly concerned, A.M. They are saying the worst we'll have is tropical storm force winds and rain. The mayor isn't recommending that anyone leave. Of course, for Georges, they were predicting that the sky would fall and we would have 20 feet of standing water for six months, and, in the end, nothing happened but a lot of wind.

[OldFriend]

Trouble is the ground is soggy from the previous rain......can't hold too much more which will mean flooding from the rain........but hopefully, not a direct hit.