Replies

3000 casualties on September 11, 2001, Arianna.

I don't think that's why we're going to war with Iraq.

Everyond stand up and repeat after me...

OH ...EYE... EL!!! It's all about OH... EYE... EL!!!

"OH ...EYE... EL!!! It's all about OH... EYE... EL!!!"

Are you sure that the motive isn't something else? Consider the possibility that the President doesn't want to see one of our cities instantly incinerated. Perhaps if we all bury our heads in the sand, all of our problems will go away.

If oil was the consideration, we would be allied with Saddam. Prior to the Kuwait invasion, we had a defacto alliance with him, and we were invited into the Iraqi oil business.

We gave up some potentially large projects when we sided against him.

Furthermore, if it was about oil, we could easily have negotiated an end to sanctions at any time for a cut of the oil business. If thats what its about.

Keeping Saddam contained helps oil companies, because it helps keep oil prices high. Bringing Iraqi oil onto the market will depress oil prices.

The majors who are investing in, say, Africa or Central Asia would rather see prices stay high. Smaller oil companies might like to see Iraq opened up, its their chance to get in on the ground floor of a new market.

Producers like to see high crude prices. Refiners like low crude prices.

The US oil business isn't a monolithic whole. It is made up of many, many companies whose interests are not identical, and who are constantly looking for an advantage. So, if Iraq stays isolated, or is opened up, its good for some, bad for others. Since our policy is to open up Central Asia, and Siberia, and Africa, it would be better to keep Iraq bottled up.

Considering that in a free Iraq, 1/3 of the oil reserves in the ME will begin flowing at full production, thus forcing "our friends" the Saudies and OPEC to lower their oil prices, it would appear that would work against US oil companies interests - as only high oil prices motivate new oil exploration projects and (according to liberal doctrine) high oil prices benefit US oil companies.

Although the oil prices might climb temporarily during another Gulf war, it wouldn't last long enough to spur new domestic exploration projects and certainly wouldn't motivate greater demand, as various conservation efforts would be forced on the public and other industries. Lower demand and thinner refinery and distribution markups necessary to keep the pump prices down to what the market will bear, will actually cost oil investors in lost profits and cost oil jobs.

Then there will be the whiplash of lower oil prices when Saddam is gone and order is established in Iraq. That could have a chilling effect on both the domestic and foreign oil companies. That is really why the Saudies (and Kuaities) are worried about the US booting out Saddam - their leverage of OPEC over us will be greatly reduced.

Might your nom de guerre be, more appropriately, "El studpido". There is an aliterative link.

El studpido - Beenliedto! El studpido - Beenliedto! El studpido - Beenliedto! El studpido - Beenliedto! El studpido - Beenliedto! El studpido - Beenliedto! El studpido - Beenliedto! El studpido - Beenliedto!

Hubba! Hubba!