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Mass smallpox vaccination prepared
BBC ^ | 10/09/2002

Posted on 10/09/2002 7:07:32 AM PDT by UKCajun

Millions of doses of the smallpox vaccine are to be stockpiled by the government to prepare for mass vaccination in the event of a bio-terrorist attack. The Department of Health said that while there was no evidence of a specific threat it was carrying out "intensive planning" just in case. Key health workers, including doctors and nurses, will be first to be offered the vaccine. They will form the first line of defence in any outbreak, caring for those taken ill in isolation.We should have in place enough vaccine to vaccinate on a mass population basis if necessary ....

However, Dr Ian Gibson, Labour MP and chairman of the Commons science and technology committee, said the government should be vaccinating the entire population and not just healthworkers. "We should move as quickly as possible to innoculating the whole population," he told the BBC. Dr Gibson added that a biological attack on the UK "will happen eventually". He said: "I'm sure somebody will try it."

(Excerpt) Read more at news.bbc.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: bioterror; smallpox; uk; vaccinations
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Head's up!
1 posted on 10/09/2002 7:07:33 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: UKCajun
biological attack on the UK "will happen eventually". He said: "I'm sure somebody will try it."

I think they should vaccinate everyone who wants it. They're closer to Iraq than we are. They don't have an ocean to slow the killers down.

2 posted on 10/09/2002 7:11:32 AM PDT by concerned about politics
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To: UKCajun
PS....Especially now that the Nation of Islam has claimed France and Germany as theirs.
(And the liberals thought immigration was a good thing.)
3 posted on 10/09/2002 7:13:16 AM PDT by concerned about politics
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To: concerned about politics
Vaccinate everyone. NHS can't even handle a flu outbreak. Total chaos would ensue with smallpox.
4 posted on 10/09/2002 7:22:37 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: UKCajun
Check out this article too:
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health/story.jsp?story=340943

The U.K. may have bought 20 million doses of the wrong vaccine!
5 posted on 10/09/2002 7:26:59 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: UKCajun
Vaccinations can easily be handled. It's the panic at even the threat that I'm concerned with. Free Republic was infested with a few hysterical newbie chicken-littles when a couple of dozen people were infected with anthrax, and they spamed every relevant thread creating fear. (And there were a lot of threads.)

If there is even a small ineffectual smallpox attack, a panicky population will drop our economy and our society to a crawl for weeks, maybe longer.

6 posted on 10/09/2002 7:33:33 AM PDT by elfman2
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7 posted on 10/09/2002 7:33:48 AM PDT by William McKinley
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To: concerned about politics
At the very least all employees of mass transportation, particularly air transport, should be required to be vaccinated. If a terrorist were infected and then travelled to the US via an airline, the ticket processors, airline stewards, custom agents and immigration agents could become carriers and infect all travellers they came in contact with, these travellers in turn would disperse throughout others in many parts of the country.
8 posted on 10/09/2002 7:36:34 AM PDT by monocle
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To: elfman2
If there is even a small ineffectual smallpox attack, a panicky population will drop our economy and our society to a crawl for weeks, maybe longer

The Democrats don't get it. The War on Terror/Iraq IS about the economy. Economic security/prosperity are hand-in-glove with National Security.
9 posted on 10/09/2002 7:38:21 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: elfman2
Preston's new book "The Demon in the Feezer" just came out yesterday. He is the guy who wrote "The Hot Zone" about Ebola. This new book is about smallpox and is non-fiction. He talks about smallpox having killed 1 Billion people in the last 100 years it was around.

The more I learn about smallpox, the more chicken little looked like a prophet.

Here is the book link:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0375508562/qid=1034174140/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_1/103-7359565-4084646?v=glance&n=507846
10 posted on 10/09/2002 7:38:30 AM PDT by TheLooseThread
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To: monocle
Heathrow and Gatwick are gateways to the the U.S.!
11 posted on 10/09/2002 7:40:16 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: UKCajun
I am totally confused by the talking head experts here in the States that are warning against giving the vaccination to young children.

My children were vaccinated before they were one year old if I remember correctly........

Once again, they are hoping we are all suffering from Alzheimers.

12 posted on 10/09/2002 7:44:26 AM PDT by OldFriend
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To: UKCajun
I am waiting for the Dems to start calling for our smallpox vaccine to be sent to some more deserving underprivileged third world country.
13 posted on 10/09/2002 7:47:43 AM PDT by Diana Rose
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To: OldFriend
It is nonsense. I was vaccinated as a boy (in my 40's now).
14 posted on 10/09/2002 7:50:02 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: UKCajun
The US may not be able to act on foreign airports, but the US could require all foreign airline personnel entering the US be able to show proof of vaccination before embarking to the US. My concern is the heavily used international airports in the US like JFK or LAX.
15 posted on 10/09/2002 7:51:27 AM PDT by monocle
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To: Diana Rose
It could happen! Has anyone seen any info with respect to the French, Germans, other Europeans stockpiling vaccine? Ooops!?
16 posted on 10/09/2002 7:52:05 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: UKCajun
I got mine on my leg.......my mom was sooo vain.......lol........she thought no one would ever see my upper thigh!!! BTW, I'm 65 and telling everyone I'm 25....so you can see senility and silliness has set in!!
17 posted on 10/09/2002 7:54:06 AM PDT by OldFriend
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To: monocle
...entering the US be able to show proof of vaccination before embarking to the US.

Would that require "profiling?"
18 posted on 10/09/2002 7:55:50 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: elfman2
I've been posting in a different thread regarding a creatively timed press statement from the American Academy of Pediatrics. In the thread I discuss the clinical medical facts and described some of the reasons ring vaccination strategy is an ineffectual response.

The least costly response is to simply allow free market conditions to function. The gov't is WITHHOLDING vaccine from release currently and as a physician, I urge the gov't to complete their bureaucratic machinations and get this vaccine rolling again.
19 posted on 10/09/2002 8:07:39 AM PDT by bonesmccoy
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To: UKCajun
No way if vacinnations were required for all personnel and all passengers with foreign passports which could be insured by making it a prerequisite of being issued a visa.
20 posted on 10/09/2002 8:13:37 AM PDT by monocle
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To: UKCajun
I could see this bug getting loose before it is targeted at the US. The Dems and UN then call for countries (guess who)that have vaccine to send it in to help and then when it spreads to the US we are screwed.
21 posted on 10/09/2002 8:26:34 AM PDT by Diana Rose
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To: bonesmccoy
The least costly response is to simply allow free market conditions to function. The gov't is WITHHOLDING vaccine from release currently and as a physician, I urge the gov't to complete their bureaucratic machinations and get this vaccine rolling again.

I recall reading somewhere that one reason for withholding the innoculation is that if the freshly vaccinated come into contact with an AIDS patient, the AIDS patient could be infected.

Seemed unlikely, since the vaccine is not actually variola major, but have you heard anything like this?

Would AIDS patients be at any greater risk if they were vaccinated themselves?




22 posted on 10/09/2002 8:34:15 AM PDT by Sabertooth
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To: Sabertooth
Please see my other thread.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/764815/posts

AAP SUPPORTS 'RING VACCINATION' IN CASE OF SMALLPOX OUTBREAK (LIBERAL BIAS BARF WARNING)
23 posted on 10/09/2002 8:35:55 AM PDT by bonesmccoy
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To: UKCajun; All
AAP SUPPORTS 'RING VACCINATION' IN CASE OF SMALLPOX OUTBREAK (LIBERAL BIAS BARF WARNING)

See this thread.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/764815/posts
24 posted on 10/09/2002 8:36:50 AM PDT by bonesmccoy
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To: UKCajun
FYI, FWIW- follow all the links within the links; there's a lot of information:

The Poor-Boy Nuke-- Bioterrorism***

Nuclear, Biological, & Chemical Warfare- Survival Skills, Pt. II

25 posted on 10/09/2002 8:56:00 AM PDT by backhoe
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To: concerned about politics
I think they should vaccinate everyone who wants it. They're closer to Iraq than we are. They don't have an ocean to slow the killers down.

Somehow I don't think terrorists are going to try to swim across the ocean.

26 posted on 10/09/2002 9:07:32 AM PDT by AdamSelene235
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To: Diana Rose; bonesmccoy
Speaking of bugs getting loose, the incidence of turberculosis in the U.K. (London area) is showing a sharp increase. Apparently this is related to Heathrow and Gatwick passenger (developing countries) traffic? My kids (we are American) in British schools came home the other day with a permission slip for a BCG test and/or innoculation depending on the results! Too much.
27 posted on 10/09/2002 9:10:03 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: TheLooseThread
Those 1 billion deaths didn't come with modern vaccine, medical and quarantine procedures ready to go.

Hyping the smallpox danger to Armageddon proportions in a book also causes it to sell well. Like we've never seen that before.

28 posted on 10/09/2002 9:10:58 AM PDT by elfman2
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To: UKCajun
The US standard is to do skin testing. The US does not use the Tb immunization called BCG. We prefer to surveillance the population using the PPD skin test. IF a child turns positive, then we just treat them for Tb.
29 posted on 10/09/2002 9:12:36 AM PDT by bonesmccoy
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To: bonesmccoy
That was the recommendation of my brother-in-law. He's an infectious disease doc in NC. Based on his advice, we declined permission. The big question for us is "Why is there this big influx of Tb?" We thought society said good riddance to that decades ago!
30 posted on 10/09/2002 9:17:11 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: backhoe
Scary stuff. Can't ignore it.
31 posted on 10/09/2002 9:18:48 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: UKCajun
Some physicians in the US noticed a surge in Tb in the late 80's and earky 90's. Some conjecture was that the skin tests were not picking up the diseases (so false negatives led to missed diagnoses and more spread). Another suggestion was that the AIDS patients were spreading it around because Tb was in the AIDS population. Is HIV on the rise in the UK?
32 posted on 10/09/2002 9:19:03 AM PDT by bonesmccoy
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To: bonesmccoy
I believe HIV is on the rise in the UK. If I recall correctly something I read recently, I believe it is related to the influx from eastern European countries that have recently joined the EU. Some is also attributable to old Soviet bloc countries. Testing for Tb (xray) is done on entry into the UK for persons intending to stay for work.
33 posted on 10/09/2002 9:23:20 AM PDT by UKCajun
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To: Dark Wing
ping
34 posted on 10/09/2002 9:38:45 AM PDT by Thud
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To: UKCajun
Yes, but if the UK public health system (which is socialized) can not accommodate all the increased need (testing, drugs, facility, staffing, etc.), you end up with what you are observing... increasing disease and increasing costs that spiral.

We've had spiraling healthcare costs in our nation for the past 10 years because of the democrats' health policies. When democrats propose changes to the healthcare system it is almost always tied to increasing payroll to unionized labor, stealing resources from private institutions like hospitals and the local clinic, and killing profit from small/medium sized companies who are forced into paying for premiums that spiral up. This causes insurance company profits to sore, increasing executive compensation and increasing donations to the Democrats.

I've heard that HIV is out of control in Eastern Europe. The trafficking of women in sex rings and prostitution/drug rings has resulted in a social implosion. The US needs to block our borders from this type of immigration. The UK should do the same.

I would expect Tb rates to continue to rise in the UK if there is a steady influx of Eastern European immigrants. The communist health care systems of the Warsaw Pact created mediocrity. It is precisely this mediocrity that I am attempting to prevent in our nation.
35 posted on 10/09/2002 9:47:11 AM PDT by bonesmccoy
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Comment #36 Removed by Moderator

To: UKCajun
Thanks for looking, & feel free to copy and send that stuff across the web. People need information first and foremost.
37 posted on 10/09/2002 10:29:01 AM PDT by backhoe
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To: UKCajun; EternalHope; Mitchell; Nogbad; Travis McGee; aristeides
Smallpox is not likely in Saddam's doomsday toolkit -- if it was, we most likely would have heard about it after Hussein Kamil's defection in 1995. Saddam's CBW program is based on three major agents: Certainly, it is a good thing that we will shortly have stocks on hand to innoculate the whole population against smallpox, if necessary. After all, you never know. But even if Saddam had smallpox, it would make a poor vengeance weapon. First, most of the victims would eventually be in the Third World, which won't have vaccine. Secondly, simulations of such attacks indicate that, even in the event of mass dispersals, the final death toll in the United States would not likely exceed the hundreds, because of the slowness with which the disease spreads and the ease of containment. Note that the much-publicized, worst-case "Dark Winter" Scenario, which foresees a million dead, is based on an attack without vaccine on hand. Thirdly, smallpox does not destroy property or involve an area-denial effect.

In contrast, the key component of Saddam's WMD arsenal, anthrax, is capable of producing far higher casualties and almost unimaginable economic damage. A recent Rand study predicted up to 3 million dead from a large-scale anthrax dispersal in California -- far higher than the death toll from any conceivable hand-delivered smallpox, nuke or dirty bomb-type attack. A 1993 Congressional Office of Technology Assessment study predicted a death toll of up to 3 million from an anthrax attack on Washington, DC. It was this study that Sec. Def. William Cohen famously referenced in his "bag of sugar" demonstration. Recall, to, that any city which depends heavily on a subway for its economic livelihood can be basically written-off if Saddam's sleepers release the "Daschle" type aerosolizable anthrax in the subway system. Decontamination would take years, so a city like New York would become essentially waste ground after such an attack, never mind the initial casualties. Recall, too, that 4 million people use the NYC subway every day. In the event of a large scale anthrax release on that subway -- say an al-Qaeda martyrdom operative tossing the contents of a breifcase onto the tracks the night before rush hour -- not only could you expect a large fraction of these people to die but, given the extremely time-critical nature of any treatment, a complete collapse of the civil order would be inevitable.

After he destroyed the World Trade Center last year, Saddam put Bush on notice as to what the final consequence of any showdown would be, sending the US political leadership a sample of the most highly-weaponized anthrax ever produced, along with a warning:

If you have been wondering why the buildup for the campaign against Iraq has been so leisurely, or why the US government has been stalling the public over the source and meaning of the anthrax letters for a year, wonder no more. Engage your noggin, and think it through. For the time being, at least, we are truly f***ed. The advantage in war is always with the aggressor, because he has worked out his moves beforehand. It will take the rest of Bush's term before we can hope to get ourselves out of this pickle.

38 posted on 10/09/2002 1:06:27 PM PDT by The Great Satan
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To: Alamo-Girl; Miss Marple
biothreat analysis
39 posted on 10/09/2002 1:19:22 PM PDT by The Great Satan
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To: The Great Satan
Isn't there evidence that Iraq has been experimenting with camelpox? I wonder if it would be possible to genetically modify it into something nasty. Alternatively, it could be the source of a vaccine effective against smallpox.
40 posted on 10/09/2002 1:22:49 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: aristeides
Isn't there evidence that Iraq has been experimenting with camelpox? I wonder if it would be possible to genetically modify it into something nasty.

True. If they have a genetically-modified smallpox then all the vaccination in the world is likely useless, and we're all doomed. I think that's a fairly unlikely possibility, given that "Dr. Germ" is reportedly far from an evil genius -- she's just evil. OTOH, Saddam does have a track record of seeking out the best and the brightest for his "special weapons" programs (remember Dr. Bull, of "Supergun" fame), so, you never know.

Alternatively, it could be the source of a vaccine effective against smallpox.

Then again, maybe they really are worried about their camels. It is the Middle East, after all.

Basically, in considering threats, you have to make a comparative judgment about the evidence that each specific threat is credible, the likely damage, and the cost and feasibility of countermeasures. I see too many people on this site running around like chickens with their heads cut off and screaming "Blue Murder!" over remote, hypothetical threats, when a very concrete and much more serious threat is clearly in the public domain.

Mind you, I think this response is, in part, by design of the authorities. Smallpox scares provide people with a justification for worrying about Saddam Hussein and for pushing forward with civil defense, but they are not so concrete that people are actually going to change their lives or eceonomic behaviour because of them. Thus such hypothetical proxy scares (smallpox, dirty bombs, suitcase nukes) address the conflicting aims of the policymaker -- the desire to build needed support for war preparations, with the desire to avoid handing the aggressor a psychological and economic victory.

41 posted on 10/09/2002 1:40:06 PM PDT by The Great Satan
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To: The Great Satan
Thanks for the heads up!
42 posted on 10/09/2002 2:15:16 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: UKCajun
They're going to have to tie me down, kicking and screaming, to vaccinate me! I'm serious!

Is there a penalty for refusing to be vaccinated? Can they jail me, vaccinate me against my will, etc.?

43 posted on 10/09/2002 8:26:44 PM PDT by my_pointy_head_is_sharp
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To: the_doc
A medical info bump...they just need to do this.IMHO ..the never vaccinated first and then the rest of us that had one years ago....
My older kids were done at a year...



http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/765812/posts?page=19#19
44 posted on 10/09/2002 9:53:54 PM PDT by RnMomof7
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To: elfman2
"Those 1 billion deaths didn't come with modern vaccine, medical and quarantine procedures ready to go."

If anything, they were probably the "good old days" of smallpox.

Current smallpox would be modified to make it super hot. Preston quotes a number of USAMRID personel who feel that the soviets modified smallpox to make our vacine ineffective. According to the former head of their bio-weapon program, they typically tried to make pathogens triple-immunne to our treatments.

As for modern quarantine procedures, all of those procedures are modeled after natural outbreaks. The "ring vacination" method that led to wiping out smallpox doesn't work if you have humans causing outbreaks aimed at maximum damage. It is like trying to fight a forest fire with an invisible pyromanic running behind the lines starting more fires.

If you look at the mortaility rate, the amazing ease at which the virus spreads in the air, the "per-generation" growth rate it would have in modern society, the lack of a treatment, and the pure horror the mechanics of the disease inflict the only rational, well thought out response is that of grave concern.

45 posted on 10/09/2002 10:27:08 PM PDT by TheLooseThread
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To: UKCajun
There is a very good chance that vaccination won't work anyway.

A small quote from Preston's new book. He is quoting two USAMRID people who go to a symposium on poxvirus and see a presentation poster by Ronald Jackson about a modified mousepox that voided the nautural and vaccine resistance of mice.

The mice were naturally resistant to mousepox, and some of them had also been vaccinated. Even so, the engineered vius had sacked them. It had wiped out a hundred percent of the naturally reistant mice and sity percent of the immunized mice.

The Austrailian scientists had added a single foreign gene, ...

If a pox that crashes through a vaccine could be made for mice, then one could probably be made for men.

My God, Peter, can you believe what these jackasses have done?, Moyer blurted.

...they'd done it by putting a single gene from the mouse into the virus... Child's play. "Holy shit," he said.

It makes me wonder if the vaccination strategy for smallpox would work, Moyer said.

I did a quick search and found the abstract:

Expression of Mouse Interleukin-4

46 posted on 10/09/2002 11:45:14 PM PDT by TheLooseThread
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To: TheLooseThread
I don't mean to be insulting, but I've seen hundreds of single sided doomsayers here. On whatever subject, they've read a book or two by a panic pimp, dug into some web sites of other's who'd done so and have just enough information to think they know what they're talking about… So all the people in authority have their head in the sand, and it's they that know the reality of it all."

Sometimes it's impossible to prove them wrong due to the nature of the threat or conspiracy, at least without buying the book. Other times I think it's the same people going from one panic to another, never learning that they're just prone to be preyed on by the people pushing this stuff.

I don't know you. Perhaps you’re a reasonable person most of the time. Or perhaps you just finished eating your Y2K supplies and are ready to give it another go. Perhaps you're now one of the pimps and have an interest in that book and are here to promote sells. Who knows… All I know is how to recognize the fear mongering, the lack of balance in the extraordinary claims and the quick reference to something like a book with devilish flaming colors on the cover. Take care.

47 posted on 10/10/2002 6:10:20 AM PDT by elfman2
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To: elfman2
"Perhaps you’re a reasonable person most of the time."

We both agree that reason the key here. This is the definition of reason from the dictionary:

Reason: Good judgment; sound sense.

If you were standing outside during bad weather, and numerous leaders in the field of weather said that their was a significant risk of a tornado heading straight for your position, what would be the reasonable respone? Would it be to sit there and proclaim that you are not going to give in to "fear mongering" and that you abhor "chicken little" types?

The resonable response would be to run like hell.

The book by Preston is a non-fiction book that is his telling of stories that people in the field have had. All of the people in the book are real. Preston, himself, is really understated on all of it. You can get a feel for him via this link: Preston thread on FR

The quote I took from the book before are two people Peter Jahrling (of USAMRIID) and Ricard Moyer (a poxvirus expert). Jahrling's team identified (properly) the antrhax attack as being weapon's grade within hours of the letter being opened. It took the FBI 9 days to figure out he was right.

Some of the people who are gravely concerned about a smallpox attack:

Peter Jahrling, USAMRIID

D.A. Henderson, Headed up WHO's smallpox eradication. Director of Office of Public Health Emergency Preparedness & Response

Ken Alibek, former head of Soviet bio-weapons program, Bio-prepart.

In addition to governement people in the know warning us, the facts sanity check. I sanity checked his assertion by pulling up the abstract for the modifed pox virus that defeats vaccination.

If you want to show that you are unshakable in the face of threat, that's ok. But I don't, personally, believe that it is resonable to ignore knowledable people, who are current directing government policy, when they say there is a significant threat.

48 posted on 10/11/2002 10:17:26 AM PDT by TheLooseThread
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To: TheLooseThread
"If you were standing outside during bad weather, and numerous leaders in the field of weather said that their was a significant risk of a tornado"

I'm sorry, but one really doesn’t have to read beyond that sentence to see where you're going. I don’t deny that there's a risk of heavy casualties. But if there were a few charlatans out peddling end of the world tornado scenarios for $19.95 plus shipping and handling while most of the meteorological establishment feels somewhat prepared, you'd say it's snake oil.

Personally, I think you have a tenuous grasp on reasoning at best or your wouldn't have led with that analogy. The danger's there, but there's another side that you won't acknowledge. "There's none so blind as those that will not see". You'd be doing yourself a favor to list the contra indicators. I bet you'd be challenged to list 5 reasons that everything Preston's supplementing his living off of will fail to materialize. I could list 10. Is it because I'm suborn, brilliant, or just an ordinary reasonable guy? You decide for yourself. Good luck.

49 posted on 10/11/2002 7:15:11 PM PDT by elfman2
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To: elfman2
Up until your last post I thought you were actually interested in a dialog.

If you disagree with me that is fine. But you have to backup your opinion with something. The only thing so far you have talked about is the vaccine and the procedure of ring vaccination. I have responed to those. If you wish to disagree, do so with data/fact.

Preston (the author) is not making any claims, per se. He is quoting living people who are, literally, the first people called (and were called) when a bio-attack occurs. USAMRIID received the anthrax from the letter attack. They were the very first one's to analyize it. They ARE the authority. Their top people in smallpox are "gravely" concerned. Preston, in this capacity, is a reporter relaying their comments.

Disagree? Fine. But do so with data and fact. Your consistant response to any data is simply "fear-mongering! clicken little!".

Want to discuss if smallpox is available to hostile people? Do so.

Want to discuss if smallpox can be bio-engineered with simple knowledge? Do so.

Want to discuss if smallpox can be delivered as a weapon? Do so.

Want to discuss whether vaccines will work? Do so.

"There's none so blind as those that will not see. There's none so mute as those that will not talk"
50 posted on 10/12/2002 2:02:42 PM PDT by TheLooseThread
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