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To: snopercod
Even if you do wait, consider the inflation. Any "break even" is not really a break even in an inflationary economy. That is to say, if your portfolio is X in '73, and goes down and back up to X in '82, adjust for inflation and see how much purchasing power you have lost.
18 posted on 10/09/2002 1:51:08 PM PDT by Jason_b
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To: Jason_b
Based on my own calcs of what is required to get PEs back to a historical 12-15 range, I've been firm on DOW 6500, NASDAQ 1000 for 2 years now. I'm totally out right now but I'll probably be back in the market within a year.

BTW, the best investment in CA during the 70s was real estate. Ditto for the 80s and 90s. Low interest rates combined with skyrocketing population means only one thing: increased pressure on housing prices.

The one good thing about illegal immigration (and their 6+ kid families) in this state is that certain areas are experiencing tremendous 'inbound' white/asian flight to get away from the cancer zones.

The simple math is that with private schools running at $10k/year, one can afford a mortgage increase of $150k @ 7% to reach breakeven for a good public education and let Uncle Sam pay for the benefit (ie mortgage deduction); 2 kids equals $300k, etc.

So houses in geographically 'contained' school districts like Irvine, Orange, HB, etc (ie not a large far flung beast like LA Unified) that should be by all rights selling for $300-400k are going for $700-800+.

34 posted on 10/09/2002 2:07:25 PM PDT by Snerfling
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