[section9]

The CIA has one of the spottiest track records for prediction in the U.S. Government.

They had no idea the Soviet Union was going to implode, and were absolutely in the dark on the September 11th attacks.

They also did provide Strategic Command with that map of Belgrade that showed a hotel owned by Arkan where the Chinese Embassy actually was.

As to their assessment, it presumes that Saddam responds to rational deterrence theory like every other state actor. I disagree, based on his previous use of chemicals on the battlefield, and at Halabja.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Schmedlap]

"The CIA has one of the spottiest track records for prediction in the U.S. Government."

Compared to what other agencies? The OMB? The CBO?

"They also did provide Strategic Command with that map of Belgrade that showed a hotel owned by Arkan where the Chinese Embassy actually was."

Are we sure that this was a mistake? When I was in Bosnia and was sent to check on named areas of interest, there was more than one occasion when a chinese immigrant fluent in Serbo-Croation and Chinese was there. Why flee China, only to end up in Bosnia?

"As to their assessment, it presumes that Saddam responds to rational deterrence theory like every other state actor."
How is that in disagreement with this: "I disagree, based on his previous use of chemicals on the battlefield, and at Halabja."

What was the "rational deterrence" in those instances?

"They had no idea the Soviet Union was going to implode, and were absolutely in the dark on the September 11th attacks."

We can make a list of all the times that the CIA was wrong. Can we make a list of all the times that the CIA was right?