[The Great Satan]

Are we to discount the report based on past oversight by the reporting body, rather than upon the merits, or lack thereof, of the actual report?

The historical track record would be the best available evidence for judging the validity of the report, yes.

[section9]

The CIA has one of the spottiest track records for prediction in the U.S. Government.

They had no idea the Soviet Union was going to implode, and were absolutely in the dark on the September 11th attacks.

They also did provide Strategic Command with that map of Belgrade that showed a hotel owned by Arkan where the Chinese Embassy actually was.

As to their assessment, it presumes that Saddam responds to rational deterrence theory like every other state actor. I disagree, based on his previous use of chemicals on the battlefield, and at Halabja.

Be Seeing You,

Chris