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Interesting. Yet the same "experts" also claimed the business cycle was dead, unlimited credit would sustain the expansion, and human behaviour was replaced with exponential gains in technology. I'll pass on all. I'm a historian by degree and believe in historical (not hysterical) cycles which do strongly match human behaviour. Yes, I think this war will be far more expansive than advertised. I do think that Dow 5500 is realistic. I also think that the passing of the pending bankruptcy bill will destroy the credit markets as small entrepreneurs will avoid borrowing at the risk of losing their personal wealth and assets. When the incentive to borrow is removed (high taxation, over regulation, and of course, unethical accounting practices..paging JPM and C) then you have a contraction as the desire to risk personal capital says "good bye". This will leave the money center banks sitting on garbage and no new loans coming in. Oops, that will kill growth.

This will straighten out with another cycle of innovation and growth. The pain the next ten years though, will be unbearable for many.