Democrats' lead slipping in Hudson
Lautenberg's age seen as one of key factors
Monday, October 21, 2002
By Peter Weiss
Journal staff writer
Former Sen. Frank Lautenberg holds a lead of nearly 10 points over Republican Douglas Forrester among Hudson County voters, according to a poll conducted by New Jersey City University for The Jersey Journal.
In the poll, 34.7 percent of respondents favored Lautenberg, while 24.9 percent favored Forrester. There were 33.3 percent undecided and 7 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate.
But if scandal-plagued Robert Torricelli, who was replaced on the ballot by Lautenberg, had stayed in the race, 38.9 percent said they would have voted for him and 38.4 percent said they would not.
The poll supervisors, Dr. Fran Moran, of the political science department, and Dr. Bruce Chadwick, of the English department, thought the poll results were "not encouraging" for Lautenberg in the highly Democratic county.
"In the last poll we conducted just a few days before Sen. Torricelli withdrew from the race, we reported he enjoyed a 45.5 percent to 23.3 percent lead over Forrester, but even that number was low for a Democratic candidate in Hudson," they stated.
"The Lautenberg numbers should cause some concern for the Democrats in that Hudson's tradition of strong support for Democratic candidates is important in statewide elections. Forrester has not made any great inroads in the county. Instead, what we found is a surprisingly large number of voters now saying they are undecided."
The pollsters surmised that two issues may be working to Lautenberg's detriment - his age and the manner in which he replaced Torricelli, a court-approved move that came after the presumed deadline for making changes.
The poll found that 43.9 percent said Lautenberg's age, 78, might affect their vote, while 47.2 percent said it would not.
When Lautenberg first ran for Senate in 1982, he made an issue of the age of his opponent, Rep. Millicent Fenwick. She was then 72.
Also, 37.1 percent said that regardless of who they'll vote for, Lautenberg shouldn't have been allowed to replace Torricelli, while 41.8 percent said it was okay.
"We believe that Lautenberg's lackluster performance in the county at this point may stem at least in part from resentment at the way in which he came to be on the ballot," Chadwick and Moran stated.
"Age may be the second issue that accounts for Lautenberg's numbers."
The pollsters said one plus for Lautenberg is Gov. James E. McGreevey's good ratings here.
He was given a favorable rating by 58.9 percent of respondents, including 50 percent of Republicans.