"First, the S&P is sitting around 860 right now. Corporate earnings for them were about $30 a year ago, but analysits are expecting earning of $47 (a more pessimistic estimate is probably around $40-42). So at current value, the S&P is only trading at a P&E of around 18 if earnings come in as expected."
Here is a quote from the S&P 500 Web site:
Standard & Poor's Core Earnings Figures Released for the
S&P 500
New Earnings Definition Indicates Lower EPS Results than As-Reported Earnings with Pension Expenses a Major Factor
New York, October 24, 2002
–Standard & Poor's, the independent financial research and ratings leader, today announced that Standard & Poor’s Core Earnings for the S&P 500 Index for the 12 months ended June 2002 were $18.48 per share compared to as-reported earnings per share (EPS) of $26.74.
So, your earnings numbers are wrong (according to the S&P 500) by a significant margin. Price divided by these earnings are well over 40 (not 19 as you stated on another thread). WRONG...
You predicted a "bottom" in July, then another (lower) one in October. I think we are in a bear market rally. Maybe I'm wrong and I will admit it to you next July, if the Dow is at 11,000 (as you predicted last July). Predicting false bottoms is the definition of wrong...
As for the earnings I used as being 'WRONG', it seems you are comparing apples to oranges. The numbers you refer to are some 'new earnings definition' for the June numbers which seem to include a new caculation for Pension expenses. The numbers I refer to are the expected reported earnings at the end of the year, which probably do not use the 'new earnings definition'.