Posted on 11/05/2002 7:08:16 AM PST by pollster
FINAL ZOGBY NUMBERS (two sets of figures, first is factoring in leaners and eliminating undecideds 'special sauce', second set is raw data)
SD SENATE THUNE (R) OVER JOHNSON (D) 52-47 (48-44)
TEXAS SENATE CORNYN (R) OVER KIRK (D) 50-46 (46-42)
NC SENATE DOLE (R) OVER BOWLES (D) 53-43 (46-39)
MN SENATE MONDALE (R) OVER COLEMAN (D) 51-45 (49-44)
GA SENATE CLELAND (D) OVER CHAMBLISS (R) 50-48 (46-44)
CO SENATE STRICKLAND (D) OVER ALLARD (R) 51-46 (49-44)
AR SENATE PRYOR (D) OVER HUTCHINSON (R) 56-43 (50-41)
Yeaaaaaaah!!!!! Whip A*S!!!!
Do you not even remember the election 2000 debacle that was Scott Rsmussen and the Portrait of America poll? He had Bush winning 41 states and leading Gore by 9 points. People here lost money betting co-workers, family, and friends by listening to Rasmussen 2 years ago.
My prediction on the other hand is that the Senate will be either 51-48-1 or 50-49-1.. either way. Some of these races will be tight. Georgia, Texas, and Colorado will decide who controls the Senate.
Reno vs. Ashcroft?
On the other hand, I have been involved in many political campaigns where the R is down six on the weekend before the election but is running an effective campaign where the down six was down twelve the weekend earlier and where the result on Tuesday is that the R wins by two.
Because of the late insertion of Mondale, you can't get real hard numbers on what the trend there is doing although my sense of things is that it is running for Coleman.
The problem for Colorado and it is of interest on this site, is not the basic Allard-Strickland race, there is a Libertarian who is running hard to the right of Allard and the trend that is important is that his number has gone from fractional (below one percent) to over five percent, primarily from Allard. Whether a real free enterprise constitutional Republican can win in Colorado or not I do not know. However it is very difficult to beat a real agenda with appeal with fuzz--Allard has a problem with the core constituency; they are drifting to the Libertarian. In these kinds of races, I personally tend to vote for the Libertarian because I think we are better off without the liberal R that votes with the Dems half the time and ultimately pulls a Jefford on you--but here, hard core types in Colorado have to recognize that by pulling the L handle, they may be handing the Senate back to Daschle. Usually, a lot of the third party vote comes back in the polling booth but in the Colorado race, it looks like a large enough margin that may not have the result you would hope for.
As to Georgia, Lousiana, and we hope Minnessota, (as well as South Dakota and Missouri where except for the risk of successful fraud, the races are probably over) it looks like the trend is going in favor of the Republican (or at least sufficiently against Mary to put her in a run-off she is likely to lose in La) and it is certainly fair to hope that we may pull enough of these out to gain control.
There are problems already in Texas with over 100,000 early ballots in San Antonio, because the ballot wasn't legally approved. They may get tossed. Texas could become Florida. I don't even know if these 100,000 votes will be counted tonight. If the margin of victory is under 100k... Texas will be a big old mess. Kirk has surged to a couple points in Texas. Tonight is going to be interesting.
Agreed, from your mouth to God's ears. If we lose though, personally I'm blaming Tim Hutchinson.
Georgia is an absolute dead heat 47-47
Last winter I was in my doctor's office in Albuquerque. He pulled back the blind and looked out the window and said, "Damn, it snowing. It wasn't supposed to snow today. Those weather forecasters--the only people I know that are consistently wrong and never get sued or fired."
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