CurmudgeonII, I tend to think you are right, which is why I put it in the "Leaning" category. I tried to put races in the "Leaning" category if I believe one of two things: 1) the margin of victory is going to be less than 10% AND the person I think will win is not in the same party that the state trends, or 2) I believe that the race has enough uncertainty that I could picture it going to other way, even if I think the margin of victory might be greater than 10 points. I put Bayh into the first category here. I think he will likely win, but I think it will be within 10 points and I think the state favors Republicans.