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Excellent analysis.

I would add only three points.

1. If Bayh runs in Indiana, move it to strongly leaning RAT. The GOP doesn't have a candidate groomed to make a strong run at him.

2. In Florida, I think there is a reasonable chance that Bob Graham will retire. If he does, this one leans GOP.

3. In North Dakota, there is talk that Ed Shafer will run. If he does, I would move this race to a toss-up.

Agreed with you on Florida and Graham.

I don't know much about Ed Shafer. Can you fill me in?

I guess I am in the minority when it comes to Bayh. I really think he has damaged himself in the past two years. I could very well be mistaken.

I agree with combacknewt regarding Bayh's chances in Indiana. The Republican's don't have anyone strong enough to run against Bayh. The Bayh family in Indiana has strong political roots. Actually, Evan Bayh's father was beaten out of office by Dan Quayle.

Evan Bayh is good at portraying himself as a moderate, though he will support the democrat cause when necessary. Indiana is generally a conservative state, so he will act bipartisan when it won't make a difference. As governor, he tried to pass a huge tax and spending hike bill. Fortunately, the Republican congress vetoed it. Bayh whined and complained saying that the state would have huge deficits. Guess what--they had a huge surplus. Not surprisingly, he ran for senate on the platform that Indiana had a big surplus, and that he didn't have to raise taxes to do it.

It will be very interesting to see if he moves more to the left as the Democrats believe it is in their best interests. Anyway, Bayh is in no danger of losing his position. Unfortunately, he has duped a lot of Hoosiers into thinking he's a moderate. However, if he is forced to move far left, things could change. But don't expect it. Hoosiers will turn a blind eye to it unless it gets really bad. Unfortunately, I'd change Indiana to a strongly leaning RAT.

-Trackman