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To: David
"Where is the money going ?"

Direct answer is very simple--bank reserves; maybe to a lesser degree bonds, bond funds, and money markets--which is why (in the case of bonds and funds) long bond interest rates are going down--people are buying them.

Okay, a good reason for the Fed's inflation plan to not work. All this excess money is not going into commerce.

Nother subject. Right now the refi & fi business is not subsiding in the least. Last week had all time highs in payoffs for refi and purchases of existing homes. And this info comes directly from the mortgage banks cashier. Not to say it won't subside later (January) but December is traditionally the best month of the year for mortgage payoffs/refis. And this December is heading towards an all time record. I'll keep you posted on any changes.

53 posted on 12/10/2002 11:30:11 AM PST by imawit
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To: imawit
" Right now the refi & fi business is not subsiding in the least. Last week had all time highs in payoffs for refi and purchases of existing homes." Well but you are in Southern California which is really a different world.

Through business connections and otherwise, I have relationships in Dallas, Denver, Seattle, and the four-corners Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri area. The trends are not identical. But in three of the four areas, the real estate financing, sale, refinancing business is in a clear downtrend. Since that is consistent with my overall view of deflation, I expect that to be the trend direction elsewhere--but California is obviously not there; and the four corners area is certainly not going down either. Maybe I am wrong.

56 posted on 12/10/2002 5:02:14 PM PST by David
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