Stock Market Crashes Are Predictable, Major Decline Is Coming In 2003 And 2004, Says UCLA Physicist

Science Daily ^ | 12-17-2002 | UCLA

[Tauzero]

Ah yes, the "I don't have facts, so accuse the opponent of sinister motives" tactic.

How very Democratic of you.

[Maelstrom]

I apologize, was there something sinister in what I said?

HAHAHAHA!!!!

I don't have a horse in this race, friend. I merely suggest that your or I can make predictions just as well as this guy's claims.

I wasn't even aware he was an opponent.

Statistical analysis of the stock market cannot predict the social, regulatory, and economic factors that form the market economy.

[The Wizard]

everyone has a mouth and an opinion

[toenail]

"I know you meant to imply some difference, but the behavior of mobs is at least partly understood -- and quantifiable."

There was a thread on this [PDF] once. Interesting.

[RightWhale]

Statistical analysis of the stock market cannot predict

No, but statistics shows the world will end in 231 years. There is a name associated with that result that I don't remember anymore.

[NukeMan]

"No, but statistics shows the world will end in 231 years. There is a name associated with that result that I don't remember anymore."

Gott & Leslie's Doomsday Argument, I believe...

[Tauzero]

On the contrary, the stock market is the best single leading indicator of all three.

[FreedomCalls]

The sky is falling. She told me so.

[Maelstrom]

HAHAHAHA

Ok...there's this thing called CAUSE and another called EFFECT.

Don't make my milk come out my nose again, please.

[Tauzero]

One ought not to confuse correlation with cause.

[Maelstrom]

True.

I'll be more explicit.

Societal happenings, regulations, and production (among other economic factors) affect the market.

There is some feedback from the market back to those three primary drivers, but that does not mean it's mere correlation.

When people popularly view the market as a driver for the other three, you wind up with a false "bubble" which needs the correction that has been happening beginning about 6 months before we were freed from The Clinton.

[Tauzero]

"Societal happenings, regulations, and production (among other economic factors) affect the market."

True.

"There is some feedback from the market back to those three primary drivers, but that does not mean it's mere correlation."

Fortunately for me, I didn't claim it was mere correlation.

Try reading my post again before shooting your mouth off.

[Tauzero]

Sorry I missed your reply yesterday.

"Elliot Wave theorists always predict doomsday."

You are probably making that judgement from a small sample of practitioners over a relatively short period of time. a.k.a. ignorance.

[Tauzero]

But in point of fact the professor here is not an Elliott guy, so your post 40 is not at all relevant.

[dead]

Anybody can build a stock prediction theory that predicts prior events.

It's that "future predicting" one that's so tricky.

[texasbluebell]

Sornette has developed algorithms

I thought that was one of Al Gore's inventions.

[dead]

Which is sort of like why all the Y2K prediction folks were correct all along?

Well, considering that they all believed the problem was intractable and would lead to mass starvations, global technological failure, a militant crackdown by the government, and years of global anarchy, I would say “correct” is not the appropriate term.

"Nutty" might be more accurate. Or perhaps the less inflammatory "alarmist."

[oldcomputerguy]

Spoken by someone who just demonstrated they know nothing about it. Well that's ok. I just hope you are not invested in stocks next year.

[oldcomputerguy]

Your right, they must have moved it, maybe too many hits. At any rate, try this one:
http://www.iop.org/EJ/S/UNREG/RQw79oZoKy.fmFhCGTaG6w/toc/1469-7688/2/6

It is published in Volume 2 page 468 of Quantitative Finance. Use the link for Volume 2 contents and go down to page 468, then grab the abstract or .pdf file. It is labeled FREE.

[1Old Pro]

Sornette and Zhou predict the Standard & Poor's 500 (currently above 900) will begin dropping by the second quarter of 2003 and will fall to approximately 700 in the first half of 2004.

When they re-mortage their homes, take ALL savings, and borrow to their limits AND then BUY PUTS, I'll take them more seriously.