[B.Bumbleberry]

I guess I don't see your point. The problem is with the idea that you can forecast economic results. How does the idea that people are irrational provide support. I thought that was part of the point I was making: that it is predictable that people will be unpredictable.

[Tauzero]

Two things: 1) I didn't say they were irrational, but arational. 2) Neither adjective is synonymous with unpredictable.Humans are predictably arational, or rather exhibit their arationality in predictable ways.

Basically all Sornette has done is an exercise in pattern recognition. It's almost not really forecasting at all, since he doesn't predict when a pattern will emerge.

"The problem is with the idea that you can forecast economic results."

What is the problem? I'm willing to go out on a limb and say with confidence that manufacturing activity in this country will not grind to a complete halt tomorrow. I could be wrong though. We could be hit by an asteroid or something arriving from sunward.

It's not at all a question of whether you can forecast economic results, but rather how far into the future and with what confidence interval.