Opposition say up to a million people joined the protest
Posted on 12/19/2002 1:13:03 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
PRESIDENT Hugo Chavez has won the support of the Venezuelan army in his battle to end a general strike now in its third week. But the real victim of the dispute, called by the country's opposition in the hope of ousting him from the presidency, is the economy. The stoppage has practically halted exports of Venezuelan oil; as a result, an increasing number of the country's firms face the prospect of losing business and market share. International oil prices are being nudged higher by the uncertainty caused by the strike. And as rival groups of demonstrators clash in the streets of Caracas, the capital, there is an increasing risk of bloodshed.
On December 16th, Sidor, Venezuela's largest steelmaker, said it had been forced to halt production because of a shortage of gas caused by the stoppage. Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana, the country's only producer of alumina, suspended output for the same reason. Dozens of other firms are in a similar plight. Production of crude oil, on which Venezuela's livelihood depends, has been reduced to a mere 15% of its normal levels. Refining has more or less ground to a halt in Paraguana and El Palito, where 70% of the country's oil is processed. Little or no petrol or fuel oil is being distributed. Flights are being disrupted.
Instead of quelling the strikes, Mr Chavez's misguided attempts to restore order and keep the country's oil flowing have simply fanned the flames of unrest. Earlier this week, the president ordered army commandos to storm an oil tanker and arrest its crew. Unmoved, the opposition said the strike would continue. Although a handful of tankers have so far managed to break the strike, another 40 or so are still lying idle at anchor. This is blocking the Orinoco river's navigation canal, causing problems for industry farther upstream. It is not just oil that is being held up. Other export goods are piling up in Venezuela's ports because ships are unable to leave.
In a message to the nation at the beginning of the week, General Julio Garcia Montoya, a senior army officer, condemned the strike as "sabotage against Venezuela's principal source of wealth". He pledged the army's support for Mr Chavez's efforts to counter the protest, accusing the strikers of trying to "kidnap Christmas". The general's words were undoubtedly a boost for Mr Chavez, himself a former paratroop officer. But he is far from home and dry.
Mr Chavez has made a difficult situation worse by trying to break the strike. In an attempt to keep the country's oil flowing, he has repeatedly ordered the army and government to take over the facilities of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the national oil company. So far, the ploy has failed, partly because few of the volunteers are trained.
Unsurprisingly, relations between the government and PDVSA have sunk to an all-time low. Outraged at Mr Chavez's recent attempt to exert his influence by appointing Alfredo Riera, a close associate, to the company's board, seven other directors of PDVSA resigned en masse during the first week of the strike. Since then, the government has taken the unusual step of sacking four of the company's executives, whom it regards as strike leaders.
As happened in April, when Mr Chavez-the country's democratically elected president-was briefly deposed by the army before being reinstated, crowds loyal to the president have surrounded television stations in the capital and other cities, protesting about their anti-Chavez coverage. In reply, thousands of Venezuelans opposed to what they regard as Mr Chavez's despotic rule have taken to the streets after dark, clanging pots and pans in a noisy protest. On December 17th, thousands of protestors surged through the streets of Caracas, holding a rally near the National Pantheon where Simon Bolivar, a 19th century independence hero, is buried.
Elected initially in 1998 and then under a new constitution in 2000, Mr Chavez considers he has a mandate for change. Even though he has fudged the opportunity and allowed many in the country to become poorer, he is still backed by one Venezuelan in four (which is more than any single leader of the fractious opposition). His current term as president lasts until 2006, but the constitution allows for a referendum in August 2003 on his progress to date. That is too late for many in the opposition: they want elections in the spring. On December 17th, America's State Department said that "a solution must be found quickly to avoid further polarisation that could erupt into violence." On the same day, the British government warned its citizens not to travel to Venezuela unless they had to and urged those already in the country to avoid the street demonstrations.
Indeed, as the strike goes on, there is an increasing threat of violence. Some 2,000-3,000 members of the Bolivarian Circles, a grassroots organisation set up by Mr Chavez, are said to have weapons and are ready to use them. Since October, moderates on both sides have been pushing for some sort of vote or referendum before the summer. On December 16th, the Organisation of American States called on Venezuela to find "a peaceful, democratic, constitutional and electoral solution" but neither side has yet shown a willingness to compromise.
Even if the strike were called off today, it could be nearly a week before the flow of oil is up to full strength again. In the meantime, the shortages will continue to build up and the economy will suffer. The government is already trying to cope with a sinking currency, rising inflation and a severe recession. During the nine months to the end of September, the economy shrank by 6.4%. The prices of Venezuelan bonds have weakened because of worries about the economy. Oil income is down and debt payments are up. Unemployment is 17% and rising. All this leaves Mr Chavez with little room for manoeuvre. He has already persuaded the central bank to take steps that could stoke inflation. If prices start rising out of control, then even the one in four Venezuelans who would currently give Mr Chavez their vote may be tempted to roll the dice.
October 29, 2002 - Chavez Blocking Vote on His Rule***"What is of more national importance than asking Venezuelans about what is happening in the country?" railed opposition lawmaker Leopoldo Puchi. "These are just excuses, legal traps, obstacles to a democratic way out by a government intent on provoking confrontation and violence." Petitioners argue Chavez is resisting the same tool he used to push through a new constitution in 1999 - paving the way for elections that stacked congress and state governments with his allies. In 2000, Chavez convoked a referendum to oust the opposition-aligned leadership of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation. Labor leaders condemned the vote, but resigned out of embarrassment when they lost.
The legal wrangling over a petition is confounding efforts by the secretary general of the Organization of American States, Cesar Gaviria, to broker peace talks this week. Gaviria said "significant efforts" were made to establish negotiations between the leftist Chavez and domestic opponents but details need to be ironed out before talks could formally start. He is trying to persuade the two sides to discuss other issues, such as reforming the country's electoral system. He has argued that neither Chavez opponents or supporters will accept a vote organized by the current electoral council, which is seen as corrupt and untrustworthy.***
November 28, 2002 - Venezuela Election Body Agrees to Chavez Referendum***CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela's election authorities agreed early on Thursday to hold a nonbinding referendum in February demanded by the opposition on whether President Hugo Chavez should resign, an option dismissed by the populist leader who refuses to step down. The consultative vote, scheduled for Feb. 2, would not legally force Chavez from office. But his foes believe a decisive rejection would deliver a political defeat that could press the president into resigning and trigger elections in the world's fifth-largest oil exporter.
Alfredo Avella, president of the National Electoral Council, said the institution that oversees elections and polls agreed to stage the popular referendum on the question of whether Chavez should resign immediately from office. The proposed referendum will likely become caught up in fierce legal wrangling in the Supreme Court and the National Assembly as the government contests its validity. Opposition leaders earlier this month handed in more than 2 million signatures demanding the immediate vote on Chavez's rule. They have threatened to stage a general strike on Monday if the government does not accept the referendum and a broader electoral accord during peace talks brokered by the Organization of American States.
Chavez, a former paratrooper who was elected in 1998, is locked in a bitter struggle with political enemies who blame his left-wing reforms for destroying the nation's economy and who accuse him of dictatorial rule. Chavez said on Sunday he would not resign even if 90 percent of the electorate voted against him in a consultative poll. The president insists the constitution only allows for a revocatory or binding referendum on his mandate in August 2003 -- halfway through his current term.***
November 29, 2002 - Venezuela Court Halts Vote on Chavez ***CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Venezuela's Supreme Court put the brakes on opposition efforts to force a non-binding referendum on President Hugo Chavez's presidency, quashing a decision hours earlier by the electoral council to conduct the vote. The back-to-back decisions on Thursday threw Venezuela into political turmoil. Foes and supporters of Chavez held rival demonstrations, with police keeping them apart. Opposition leaders threatened a general strike on Monday to press for the non-binding vote on whether the president should resign.
The opposition began its push for a referendum on Nov. 4, delivering a petition with 2 million signatures to the electoral council demanding the plebiscite. Electoral officials have said they verified about 1.2 million signatures - the number needed to schedule the vote. The council early Thursday approved holding a Feb. 2 referendum in a 3-1 vote with one member absent, citing a new law allowing approval by a simple majority. But the high court said the council is still bound by an old electoral law requiring approval by four council members. "The referendum still hasn't been called," said electoral council member Romulo Lares, who abstained. "That decision is null according to the Supreme Court's ruling." Dissenting council member Romulo Rangel also said a more thorough check of the signatures on the petition referendum is needed.
Council members who backed the referendum stood by their action. "The decision is transparent and in keeping with the law," electoral council vice president Jose Manuel Zerpa said.***
.......The talks have made little headway so far. While the opposition has demanded general elections by next March, government officials have agreed only to a binding referendum on Chavez's rule next August, as allowed by the Constitution. Moving up an election would require a vote by the 165-seat National Assembly, where Chavez's supporters hold a seven-seat majority. Lawmakers from both sides said it may be possible within a few days to pass such an amendment.***
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