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Topography and distances will influence the pace of events. A glance at the map will show that Baghdad is principally defended in the south by the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, as well as its network of tributary streams that spread like dense net to the Gulf, and net which becomes a swamp with the melting of the winter snows in March and April. It is behind these barriers that the Iraqi army is expected to make a stand. Iraq's northern border is anchored on a ridgeline on the lower slopes of mountains which mark its frontier with Turkey. The path to Baghdad from the north involves descending onto the plain bounded by the headwaters of the Tigris to the west and the mountainous Iranian border to the east. Here the tributary network is less dense; but the final approach to the capital is barred by a final ridge just north of Tikrit.

The US Order of Battle has been carefully concealed. But Global Security reports equipment for 11 mechanized or armored brigades in the Kuwait vicinity, with 5 more afloat in Diego Garcia. To the north, which is Turkey and Kurdistan, nothing is reported but Air Force and Special Forces. Reports suggest that 4 naval and 5 air force wings are deploying.

There are two obvious tasks facing the US. One is to instantly paralyze the Iraqi WMD assets, especially those which may be fired from Scuds, both at Kuwait and Israel, as well as to take possession of any arms which may fall into Al-Qaeda hands. The second is to force a route to Baghdad.

It probable that the decisive missions have been assigned to the light forces: the Rangers, Airborne/Airmobile and Special Forces, who may be expected to seize key installations, swarm over the western desert and capture river crossings. The heavy forces based in Kuwait and the Gulf States can be expected to advance parallel to the Euphrates/Tigris river barrier until they can turn east for their final run to Baghdad. How far north they will go before making their final turn must be one of the most closely guarded planning secrets.

Here the time and distance calculations pose a conundrum. The light forces must achieve their essential objectives in less than 48 hours; but the heavy forces cannot complete the 300 mile approach to the Baghdad through the river barriers in much less than 96 hours. There will be a 48 hour gap in which the light forces and the naval and air forces will be all alone.

Commentators have spoken of the coming campaign as a "piece of cake". It will be baked, but hard in the baking. It will be won; but it will be won by men with greater wit and valor than I.