China Behind North Korea in Nuclear Flap

LatelineNews: 2003-1-2] BEIJING - They've been as close as ``lips and teeth,'' the saying goes, staunch comrades in battle and communist allies during decades of Cold War standoff. With ties sealed in blood, China remains North Korea's most important ally and a crucial aid provider. That gives Beijing an important role and unique leverage as Pyongyang faces worldwide condemnation for restarting its nuclear program.

While China says it wants a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, it has not visibly exerted its substantial influence on Pyongyang. Instead, it seems to be standing by its ally, guided by historical ties and fears of being drawn into the chaos that could unfold if the North Korean regime collapses or the country goes to war with its southern neighbor.

``Despite all the problems North Korea poses for China, Beijing appears unwilling to risk destabilizing North Korea,'' said Charles K. Armstrong, director of the Center for Korean Research at New York's Columbia University.

China's closeness to North Korea has made it the target of intense lobbying from other nations uneasy over the latest moves by Kim Jong Il's dictatorial regime. North Korea alarmed the world last month when it decided to reactivate its plutonium-based nuclear program; last week, it expelled U.N. nuclear inspectors and signaled it may quit a global nuclear arms-control treaty.

U.S. officials have urged Beijing to pressure North Korea. On Thursday, South Korea sent a deputy foreign minister to Beijing for talks about North Korea, and Seoul said the two sides agreed to cooperate to ``prevent the situation from further aggravating.''

American and South Korean diplomats say Beijing has listened to their concerns but hasn't promised to intervene with Pyongyang. If China is exerting influence on North Korea, it isn't letting on.

Making direct demands on North Korea is ``not China's style,'' said Chu Shulong, director of the Institute of Strategic Studies at Beijing's Tsinghua University. However, he said China has made its concerns clear to the North - a suggestion that Beijing is exerting subtle pressure on Pyongyang.

At the United Nations, diplomats said Beijing wanted to deal privately with the situation through diplomatic channels rather than bringing it to the Security Council where China could wind up publicly defending Pyongyang.

It is a difficult role for China to play. Beijing must balance its ideological and traditional ties to Pyongyang with its keen desire for regional stability and its hunger to be seen as an important player on the world stage, especially by Washington.

North Korea's founder and its current leader's father, Kim Il Sung, spent much of his youth in China and was once a member of China's Communist Party. China fought on North Korea's side during the 1950-53 Korean War, sacrificing an estimated 1 million Chinese soldiers in the fight against South Korea and the United States.

Ties remained strong even after China established diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1992. At a North Korean embassy reception that year, a Chinese general, Fu Quanyou, again invoked the Korean War-era ``lips and teeth'' analogy, setting the tone for the current cordial relationship.

``There is a special, insular relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang that seems to be immune to any outside influences,'' a Western diplomat in China said on condition of anonymity.

China's leverage is considerable. It provides about 220,000 tons of grain a year to the famine-plagued country, according to the United Nations. Chinese fuel supplies help keep the remnants of North Korean industry operating, and China is the North's biggest trading partner, though trade volumes are paltry.

China receives some raw materials from North Korea and traders near the border get some business from North Koreans, but it's not considered very lucrative.

China ``could exert a great deal of pressure on North Korea if it wanted to,'' Armstrong said.

Kim Jong Il visited China twice in recent years, significant because he rarely leaves his country. The trips led some to wonder if North Korea was considering Chinese-style economic reforms, but there has been little evidence of serious change.

Withdrawing aid to force changes is considered too risky. Already, hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees are believed to have fled across the border seeking food and work in China. Almost 200 have entered foreign diplomatic missions and schools in China seeking asylum in the past year, creating diplomatic headaches for China.

Any North Korean collapse would risk unleashing a conflict that could draw in China or - equally worrisome to Beijing - plant a U.S.-allied unified Korean state on its border. South Korea currently hosts 37,000 U.S. troops.

Some experts say that China, rather than using aid as leverage, may even increase its assistance to forestall a North Korean meltdown.

The complexities of China's relationship with North Korea make the ``lips and teeth'' analogy even more apt, since it implies co-dependence as much as intimacy.

``When the lips are gone,'' the second half of that couplet says, ``the teeth feel cold.''

Kim Jong Il is blackmailing both his patron China, and his enemies. With starving crowds poised on the Chinese border and nuclear weapons aimed at Japan, Kim says, 'fear me, feed me, love me'. It's worked before so he reasons it will work again.

After all, he has the ultimate trump card, nuclear weapons. He has two US brigades positioned conveniently under the muzzles of his artillery. He has the metropolis of Seoul under the same guns. 'Fear me, feed me, love me'.

But the Chinese are passing up a golden opportunity to establish themselves as the premier arbiter on the Korean peninsula by failing to lean on Kim Jong Il. They were Seoul's alternative to the American way. Now where will Seoul turn, but back to Washington?

In the latest developments, the US is hosting a diplomatic meeting to discuss developments on the Korean penninsula. It's called taking the rebound.

"Hey Kim, don't worry, buddy. We're behind you all the way. "

"... make that waaaay behind you."

Anyone who thinks that China is going to fall on their sword for North Korea is sorely mistaken. For internal political reasons, China can't quite cut NK loose yet, but that day is coming. China's future lies in keeping Japan de-militarized, South Korea intact, and both helping pump up the Chinese economy. North Korea has nothing to offer, but a rational for U.S. troops to stay parked on the Chinese border.

Its safe to say that China will shed no tears for their 'fellow communists', nor offer any support where it counts.

GOP Folds On ChinaGate - Alan Keyes

Bush Justice Department Obstructs Testimony of Chinagate Scandal Figure John Huang

Ashcroft Winding Down Justice Department Chinagate Probe

"The Bush administration has been "as bad, if not worse" than the Clinton administration when it comes to the transfer of sensitive technologies to the People's Republic of China (PRC)" - Insight Magazine

"The Bush administration has decided not to tell America exactly how much business the Chinese army does inside the United States. In a recent Freedom of Information response, the Commerce Department decided not to disclose what a Chinese air force front company bought from America." - By Charles Smith

Cover-up at the Bush Commerce Department - By Charles Smith

NORTH KOREA: US agrees to fund power and heating (Bush sends 95 million to member of Axis of Evil!!)

US grants N Korea nuclear funds[President George W Bush waived the Framework's]

US grants N Korea nuclear funds

North Korea Threatens Nuclear Strike on U.S. - March 15, 2002

"Make no mistake about it, if you threaten us with weapons of mass destruction, if you threaten our allies and friends with weapons of mass destruction, we will do whatever it takes to protect our people," - George W. Bush

North Korea Says U.S. "Sworn Enemy" - April 4, 2002

North Korea, one of the three countries labelled an "axis of evil" by President George Bush, is a major exporter of ballistic missile technology to the Middle East, according to a new report released by the CIA.

"Axis of Evil" - North Korea, Iraq and Iran

North Korea's Best Pal: The U.S.?
"Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif , is even more direct.

"We are giving North Korea hundreds of millions of dollars in fuel and food while they are spending the same amount bolstering their military. If ever there was an insane policy, this is it."

Presidential front-runner George W. Bush has also voiced concerns about Clinton’s approach to North Korea.

"North Korea is a serious threat to American forces in Asia and to our important allies, Japan and the Republic of Korea," the Bush campaign told IBD. "Gov. Bush believes that the administration’s strategy toward North Korea has failed to secure important, long-term U.S. objectives on the Korean peninsula: to end

North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, to stop the proliferation of ballistic missile technology from Pyongyang, and to reduce the conventional military threat facing the Republic of Korea and U.S. troops stationed there."

The United States accused Iraq, "North Korea" and four other countries on Monday of building germ-warfare arsenals, and said it worried one of them might be "helping Osama bin Laden" in his quest for biological weapons.

"The CIA identified Russia, China and North Korea as "key suppliers" of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons materials and missile-delivery systems...North Korea exported "significant" ballistic missile goods to the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa during the first half of last year, the report said."

"The State Department's 1999 report stated that North Korea had links with Osama bin Laden."

Fatherly Advice to the President on North Korea

Carlyle's Way
"Shortly after George W. Bush was sworn in as president, he broke off talks with North Korea regarding long-range ballistic missiles, claiming there was no way to ensure North Korea would comply with any guidelines that were developed. The news came as a shock to South Korean officials, who had spent years negotiating with the North, assisted by the Clinton administration. By June, Mr. Bush had reopened negotiations with North Korea, but only at the urging of his own father. According to reports, the former president sent his son a memo persuasively arguing the need to work with the North Korean government. It was the first time the nation had seen the influence of the father on the son in office.

But what has been overlooked was Carlyle's business interest in Korea. The senior Bush had spearheaded the group's successful entrance into the South Korean market, paving the way for buyouts of Korea's KorAm Bank and Mercury, a telecommunications equipment company. For the business to be successful, stability between North and South Korea is critical.

"We're not looking for individuals of any particular religion or from any particular country."
FBI Director Robert Mueller - SOURCE.

Re #10

It is sufficient for U.S. to merely declare unequivocally that U.S. won't interfere with China about the Taiwan problem under any circumstances. Then it is as good as done. Maybe that is what China wants. Who knows ?

It all hinges on how badly U.S. needs China to resolve Kim Jong-Il problem. Ironically, the more stinks N. Korea makes, grabbing international headlines, the more danger Taiwan will be in. Chen Sui-Bian must really hate Kim Jong-Il. Kim may be forcing Bush's hand to give up Taiwan in order to get to N. Korea. In the end, Kim gets nothing and digs his own grave. But he would drag Taiwan, an unrelated third party, with him.

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