Posted on 01/23/2003 4:52:03 PM PST by NativeNewYorker
Could Shinui become Israel's second-largest party? Public opinion polls released today, five days before the national elections, show that this is a genuine possibility. A Dahaf Institute poll published in Yediot Acharonot shows the Labor party sinking to an all-time low of 18-19 seats in the Knesset, with Shinui receiving 16-17. In the previous election four years ago, Labor received 26 seats, while Shinui received 6.
A poll conducted for today's Maariv shows that Labor will receive 18 and Shinui - 15, with the Likud leading the race by a significant margin and winning between 32 to 34 seats in the Knesset. Labor Party leader Amram Mitzna attempted to stem the tide by calling for the completion by Sunday of the investigation against his alleged bribe-taking. "If any hint of a crime committed by me is uncovered," he said, "I will immediately draw the appropriate conclusions."
Other poll results are as follows: Shas, 11 seats; Meretz, 7-8; National Union, 7-8; United Torah Judaism, 4-5; National Religious Party, 4-5; Yisrael B'Aliya, 3-4; Am Echad, 3-4; Arab lists, 9-10. Herut is still giving pollsters a hard time, with two surveys showing the party close to but not passing the minimum threshold. A poll by the Geocartographic Institute, however, gives Herut 2-3 seats. The party features Baruch Marzel, a former leader of the outlawed Kach party, running in its number two slot, following MK Michael Kleiner.
The Aleh Yarok (Green Leaf) party, which supports the legalization of marijuana and prostitution, is also teetering on the edge of obtaining the minimum amount of votes required to enter the Knesset. The uncertainty regarding these parties may be due to the fact that potential voters are not revealing their true preference to pollsters.
The poll results indicate that Sharon will be able to form a coalition of right-wing and religious parties, forming a block of 64-65 seats in the Knesset. However, he could also form a center-left coalition with Labor, Shinui, and Am Echad, of up to 68 seats. In such a case, however, he faces the possible danger of a split in his own Likud party.
Pollsters are well aware that most of their work may go up in smoke, however. One of their most important findings indicates that only 61% of the voting public is certain about their voting choice, while close to 25% are still deciding between two parties. Another 15% of the eligible voting public remains entirely undecided, saying they have "no idea" for which party to vote.
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