Harris Poll: Self-Identified Conservatives Now Outnumber Liberals 2-to-1 - Democrats hit new low

Harris Poll press release ^ | January 30, 2003

[HAL9000]

Democratic Lead (Now Only Three Points) in Party Identification Has Declined to a New Low, Says The Harris Poll

                 Self-Identified Conservatives Now Outnumber

                  Liberals 2-to-1 but Still Trail Moderates

    ROCHESTER, N.Y., Jan. 30 /PRNewswire/ -- For the second year in a row,

those who think of themselves as Democrats (regardless of how they actually

vote) declined in 2002.  The Democratic lead in party identification over

Republicans has fallen from eight points in 2000 to five points in 2001 and

only three points in 2002.  Those who think of themselves as Democrats now

outnumber Republicans by only 34% to 31% with 24% describing themselves as

Independent, with the rest as not sure (6%) or something else (5%).  This is

the smallest Democratic lead we have recorded since we began measuring party

identification in 1969, when Democrats enjoyed a 17-point lead over

Republicans.

    These numbers are based on replies to 13 nationwide surveys of adults

surveyed between January and December 2002.  These surveys were conducted by

telephone with a total of over 13,000 adults (ages 18+).  The numbers for

previous years, since 1969, were all based on 10,000 or more interviews each

year.

    In the polls conducted in the 1970s we found, on average, a 21-point

Democratic lead over the Republicans, with a peak of 25 points in 1975, the

year President Nixon resigned.  In the 1980s and 1990s, this Democratic lead

declined to 11 and seven percentage points, respectively.  In the first three

years of this decade (2000 through 2002) the Democratic lead has averaged only

five points.

    Political philosophy

    There has been little change in the proportion of adults who describe

themselves as conservative (35%), liberal (18%) or moderate (40%) over the

last several years.  Indeed the numbers have been remarkably stable over the

last thirty years.  However, this is the first year since 1995 that

conservatives have outnumbered liberals by more than two-to-one.

    Those who think of themselves as moderate have been close to 40% for

thirty years.  Conservatives have been close to 35% for several years after

peaking at 40% in 1995, after the "Republican revolution" and their midterm

election victory of 1994.

    Self-described liberals have never risen above 20% (in 1979) or fallen

below 15% (in 1974).  Since 1975, moderates have never fallen below 38% or

risen above 42% (most recently in 1992).

    Party identification is not a very good predictor of how people will vote

    While most people who identify as Democrats or Republicans tend to vote

for candidates of these parties, very large numbers of them do not.

Furthermore, in recent elections, a majority of voters split their tickets and

only a minority cast all their votes for candidates of one party (The Harris

Poll #62, November 21, 2002).

    For much of the last thirty years, more Democrats voted for Republican

candidates than vice-versa, and majorities or pluralities of independents

voted Republican.  Otherwise, Republicans would have won far fewer elections.

So, obviously, the continuing decline in Democratic identification does not

bode well for Democratic candidates.

                                   TABLE 1

                     THE HARRIS POLL - PARTY AFFILIATION

  "Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself - a

        Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

    Base: All adults

    Year       President      Republican   Democrat   Independent Democratic

                                                                     Lead

                                   %            %           %          %

    2002       Bush                31           34         24          3

    2001       Bush                31           36         22          5

    2000       Clinton             29           37         23          8

    1999       Clinton             29           36         26          7

    1998       Clinton             28           37         27          9

    1997       Clinton             29           37         26          8

    1996       Clinton             30           38         26          8

    1995       Clinton             31           36         28          5

    1994       Clinton             32           37         26          5

    1993       Clinton             29           38         27          9

    1992       Bush                30           36         29          6

    1991       Bush                32           37         26          5

    1990       Bush                33           38         25          5

    1989       Bush                33           40         23          7

    1988       Reagan              31           39         25          8

    1987       Reagan              29           38         28          9

    1986       Reagan              30           39         25          9

    1985       Reagan              30           39         26          9

    1984       Reagan              27           40         24         13

    1983       Reagan              26           41         27         15

    1982       Reagan              26           40         28         14

    1981       Reagan              28           39         28         11

    1980       Carter              24           41         29         17

    1979       Carter              22           41         31         19

    1978       Carter              22           43         30         21

    1977       Carter              21           48         25         27

    1976       Ford                24           47         24         23

    1975       Nixon/Ford          21           46         27         25

    1974       Nixon               23           45         32         22

    1973       Nixon               26           48         26         22

    1972       Nixon               30           47         23         17

    1971       Nixon               31           49         20         18

    1970       Nixon               31           49         20         18

    1969       Nixon               32           49         19         17

    NOTE:  "Others" and "Not sures" excluded.

                                   TABLE 2

                       DECADE MEANS OF DEMOCRATIC LEAD

  "Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself - a

        Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

    Base: All adults

    1970s                  21%

    1980s                  11%

    1990s                   7%

    2000's (so far)         5%

                                   TABLE 3

                    THE HARRIS POLL - POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

    "How would you describe your own political philosophy - conservative,

                            moderate, or liberal?"

    Year       President         Conservative      Moderate      Liberal

                                      %               %             %

    2002       Bush                   35              40            17

    2001       Bush                   36              40            19

    2000       Clinton                35              40            18

    1999       Clinton                37              39            18

    1998       Clinton                37              40            19

    1997       Clinton                37              40            19

    1996       Clinton                38              41            19

    1995       Clinton                40              40            16

    1994       Clinton                NA              NA            NA

    1993       Clinton                NA              NA            NA

    1992       Bush                   36              42            18

    1991       Bush                   37              41            18

    1990       Bush                   38              41            18

    1989       Bush                   37              42            17

    1988       Reagan                 38              39            18

    1987       Reagan                 37              39            19

    1986       Reagan                 37              39            18

    1985       Reagan                 37              40            17

    1984       Reagan                 35              39            18

    1983       Reagan                 36              40            18

    1982       Reagan                 36              40            18

    1981       Reagan                 38              40            17

    1980       Carter                 35              41            18

    1979       Carter                 35              39            20

    1978       Carter                 34              39            17

    1977       Carter                 30              42            17

    1976       Ford                   31              40            18

    1975       Nixon/Ford             30              38            18

    1974       Nixon                  30              43            15

    1973       Nixon                  NA              NA            NA

    1972       Nixon                  31              36            20

    1968       Nixon                  37              31            17

    NOTE: NA means not asked

    Methodology

    This issue of The Harris Poll(R) is based on more than 13,000 interviews

conducted by telephone within the United States between January and December

2002.  Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of

voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align

them with their actual proportions in the population.

    In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95

percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or

minus one percentage point of what they would be if the entire adult

population had been polled with complete accuracy.  Unfortunately, there are

several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are

probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error.  They

include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and

question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and

screening (e.g., for likely voters).  It is impossible to quantify the errors

that may result from these factors.

    These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National

Council on Public Polls.

    About Harris Interactive(R)

    Harris Interactive (http://www.harrisinteractive.com) is a worldwide

market research and consulting firm best known for The Harris Poll(R), and for

pioneering the Internet method to conduct scientifically accurate market

research.  Headquartered in Rochester, New York, U.S.A., Harris Interactive

combines proprietary methodologies and technology with expertise in

predictive, custom and strategic research.  The Company conducts international

research through wholly owned subsidiaries -- London-based HI Europe

(http://www.hieurope.com) and Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan -- as well

as through the Harris Interactive Global Network of local market- and

opinion-research firms, and various U.S. offices. EOE M/F/D/V

    To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to

participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com.

[HAL9000]

FYI

[US_MilitaryRules]

Someone post this over at the DU low lifes site!

[The Great Satan]

The axis of lying weasels just got smaller.

[eureka!]

Trending nicely. Thanks for the post...

[Happy2BMe]

"For much of the last thirty years, more Democrats voted for Republican candidates than vice-versa, and majorities or pluralities of independents voted Republican.

Otherwise, Republicans would have won far fewer elections.

So, obviously, the continuing decline in Democratic identification does not bode well for Democratic candidates."

Super!

Al Sharpton will run in 2004 after all...

[Free the USA]

fyi

[winin2000]

Actually, an article, I think posted here on FR, pointed out that once you factor in how those vaunted "independents" lean, the voting patterns are very predictable: seldom do those who say they "lean" toward one party or another then vote differently. And on that score there is actually a fractional advantage for the GOP.

[Reeses]

There has been little change in the proportion of adults who describe themselves as conservative (35%), liberal (18%) or moderate (40%) over the years.

What's really happening is both the "Democrat" and "Republican" parties are moving to the left. JFK would have no problem running as a Republican these days. The Democrats have moved too far left. The percentage of conservatives and socialists has not really changed over the last 100 years.

[FreePaul]

I wonder about the accuracy of a poll in which people are asked to identify themselves as Democrat or Liberal. I listen to a lot of talk radio, both local and national. Very few of those who call up spouting the latest Dem/Lib positions want to be identified as such. Most claim that they are moderates and some even claim to be disillusioned Repubs. It appears that it is not fashionable to be identified as a Liberal except among some select groups.

[Paul Atreides]

I didn't think that Dims could get any lower.

[Irene Adler]

Am I reading this wrong? Conservatives are said to outnumber liberals "more than two to one," but the percentages I see are 35 percent and 18 percent. That's not more than two to one; it's slightly less than two to one. Eighteen doubled is 36. Was there some other set of current percentages in the article I missed, somehow?

[WhiteGuy]

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Don't be a buzz-killer

[The South Park Republican]

Actually, an article, I think posted here on FR, pointed out that once you factor in how those vaunted "independents" lean, the voting patterns are very predictable: seldom do those who say they "lean" toward one party or another then vote differently. And on that score there is actually a fractional advantage for the GOP.

I "lean" Conservative/Republican on the Abortion Issue. But the hardcore Pro-Lifers freak me out more than the hardcore Pro-Choicers. Even though the latter group includes some of the most shrill, disgusting and clueless liberals I can think of.

I'm a Broken Glass Republican. The one and only issue where my votes is in doubt is if hardcore Pro-Lifers are involved.

[Right Wing Professor]

Am I reading this wrong? Conservatives are said to outnumber liberals "more than two to one," but the percentages I see are 35 percent and 18 percent.

One possibility: C=35.4% ~ 35%

L=17.6% ~18%

C/L >2

[deport]

I think they got the number mixed up in the body of the article.... From the table it should be 17% not 18%.....

---

"How would you describe your own political philosophy – conservative, moderate, or liberal?"

Year	President	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal
		%	%	%
2002	Bush	35	40	17

[No Truce With Kings]

"So, obviously, the continuing decline in Democratic identification does not bode well for Democratic candidates."

I think the Democrats are today are at the same stage as the Whigs in the 1840s -- about ready to disintegrate into irrelevance. The question is who replaces them? The Republicans became a coherent alternative to the Whigs in the 1850s, but around what principle could a new central-left party form? And yes, I am a conservative, but absent a competent, ethical opposition party any political party will become corrupt.

[eureka!]

Re#9 I would tend to agree. I do think, however, that the pendulum is swinging back towards the right for many of those that thought the liberalism of the 60s was the end all. Time will tell....

[k2blader]

*LOL*

Yes. Nice. C/L = 2.0114. :-D