First of all, your benefit is that the State of Ohio gets a shot at retaining some smart, educated people who might otherwise move to Indiana.
Secondly, it is wrong to demand a personalized benefit ("having x chance of getting in"). If you are qualified, you do have "x" chance of getting in. If you aren't, you have "y" chance of getting in.
The debate is about whether there are any reasonable non-zero values of "y".
I would say no.