Posted on 02/10/2003 3:31:38 PM PST by Axion
U.S. Sources: Second North Korean Missile Test Possible Summary
Feb 10, 2003
North Korea "may engage in a missile test, perhaps overflying the island of Japan," U.S. Ambassador to Japan Howard Baker said Feb. 10. Another Taepo Dong-1 test, like the 1998 failed satellite launch attempt, is part of Pyongyang's broader strategy to force Washington into new peace talks or at least a non-aggression treaty. While Baker gave no date for a possible launch, Pyongyang has several symbolic options -- the most likely being in April or September.
Analysis
North Korea might launch another long-range missile, nearly five years after its first Taepo Dong-1 test, U.S. Ambassador to Japan Howard Baker said Feb 10. "We hear reports that [North Korea] may engage in a missile test, perhaps overflying the island of Japan." His comments followed a Japanese media report that Tokyo has devised a strategy for dealing with future North Korean missile launches.
While Baker warned of another potential launch, he did not speculate on a date. In looking at Pyongyang's past record and the current strategy of the North Korean regime, a number of dates promise stronger impact, with the best candidates in April or September.
North Korea's first Taepo Dong-1 launch was Aug. 31, 1998, flying over Japan's Honshu island. It was both a failed attempt at launching a satellite into orbit and a quite successful demonstration of North Korea's advancements in missile technology, demonstrating Pyongyang already had reached production -- at least on a test scale -- of a three-stage rocket. Less than a year after the launch, amid repeated rumors of further flight tests, Pyongyang announced a self-imposed missile moratorium that would last until 2003.
North Korea is now considering another flight of the Taepo Dong-1 or the longer-range Taepo Dong-2 as part of its strategy to force negotiations with the United States. Pyongyang officials believe that the dual threats of their revitalized nuclear program and a demonstration of their long-range ballistic missile capabilities will force Washington into a "shotgun wedding" with Pyongyang, instilling so much fear in the U.S. administration that it signs a formal peace treaty with North Korea and normalizes diplomatic relations.
And with or without the impending war in Iraq, North Korea intends to proceed with this course -- unless Washington changes its position on Pyongyang, which is not likely to happen in the near future.
When looking at possible dates for a new missile launch, the political motives behind the test are noteworthy. Thus, Pyongyang is likely to consider both symbolic dates and times that will have a maximum impact on the American, South Korean and Japanese psyches.
There are eight key dates that seem likely for a Taepo Dong launch: Feb. 16, April 9, April 15, July 27, Aug. 15, Aug. 31, Sept. 5 and Sept. 9. The launch would not necessarily be on the exact date, but very near -- within a week.
Feb. 16 is Kim Jong Il's 61st birthday, just days after U.N. weapons inspectors in Iraq are to report their findings to the Security Council. But two things weighing against such an early launch are the weather, which is not conducive to a successful launch that early in the year, and the fact that South Korean President-elect Roh Moo Hyun still will be a week away from taking office. Pyongyang officials are counting on a combination of South Korean sympathy and fear to help drive Washington to the negotiating table.
A launch in April, around the ninth or 15th, is likely. April 9 is the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong Il's inauguration as chairman of the National Defense Commission -- a position that sealed his spot as successor to his father, former North Korean President Kim Il Sung. April 15 is the anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birthday, an important holiday in North Korea. North Korea has never tested its short- or medium-range missiles earlier than April, and the weather after April is much more suited for a successful launch. By early April, North Korea is counting on the United States being more fully absorbed in Iraq, leaving it more likely -- from Pyongyang's point of view -- to accede to North Korea's demands.
July 27 is the next important date, marking the 50th anniversary of the signing of the armistice that ended the Korean War. The anniversary is in part why North Korea chose 2003 to confront the United States, long before Washington planned an invasion of Iraq or al Qaeda attacked the United States.
Aug. 15 is National Liberation Day, a common holiday with South Korea commemorating Korea's liberation from Japan. In addition, Aug. 31 is the fifth anniversary of the first Taepo Dong launch. Although both dates are attractive, an August launch is just as likely to backfire on the North Koreans by re-emphasizing the differences between the two Koreas, undermining Pyongyang's more recent attempts to play off the two Koreas' commonalities.
A September launch, near the fifth or the ninth, appears a higher possibility, if Pyongyang chooses to wait that long. Sept. 5 is the fifth anniversary of Kim Jong Il's re-election as chairman of the National Defense Committee, making him, under the revised constitution, the Head of State. Sept. 9 is North Korea's National Day, a prime opportunity to demonstrate the nation's technological achievements despite decades of isolation. In fact, the August 1998 launch was timed to play into Kim Jong Il's re-election, as the satellite it was supposed to place in orbit was to have played patriotic messages praising Kim and his late father.
Thus, from Pyongyang's prospective, the most likely launch dates are in April and September. These can have the most stirring effect both at home and abroad. And, as long as Washington calls Pyongyang's bluff, and determines not to engage in bilateral negotiations with North Korea, a North Korean missile launch appears more a question of when -- rather than if -- it will take place.
Hmmmmmm.
Sounds like we need to get the ABL platform up up and away. (Airborne Laser)
LOL!
May 1, (Mayday) the traditional Stalinist/Leninist rite of spring.
The USSR, famous for the flexing of military muscle through military parades, made this date their traditional "showing of new technology" for many years.
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