1. It's genuine. Osama bin Laden has come out of hiding and recorded a tape to stir the troops in the fight against The Great Satan and, in particular, in support of Iraq.
I doubt it, but it could be...
2. It's a product of Iraqi intelligence. Trying to stir up the Arab world against The Great Satan, frighten the appeasers and, hopefully, get al-Qaeda and its minions moving in support of Iraq.
Could be...but the previous bin Laden audio tape pointedly specified there were no connections between Iraq and al-Qaeda. Officially, the US government said its experts believed the tape "authentic", but didn't make an issue of it. A Swiss firm specializing in such matters dubbed the tape a fake, without qualifications. Likely source of this tape, given the subject matter: Iraqi intelligence. This new tape, though, is telling another story about cooperation between al-Qaeda and Iraq -- one which isn't favorable to Iraq's case.
3. It's a product of the CIA. Osama climbs out of the electronic grave and volunteers to prove our point -- al-Qaeda and Saddam are buddy-buddy partners in terrorism. At the same time, the fact that we knew about the tape before it arrived at its intended destination strongly suggests that US intelligence has penetrated the inner circle of al-Qaeda and stands next to Osama himself. Might that give Achmed pause before he puts on his bomb vest to visit the local airport?
Personally, I would rate each one-in-three. But would lean toward the latter -- meaning a propaganda coup for the Bush administration.