HOME PRICES PLUMMETING

The Austin American Statesman | 01 February 2003 | Shonda Novak

[Torie]

Are you enjoying my little tour of California real estate?

[BJungNan]

This stupid buyer bought a 1350 sq ft house in Mission Viejo in 1987 for $145,000. It would now sell for about $400,000. I've seen prices fall before, and they probably will again.

I think the point is that they are falling again. Anyone paying $750,000 for the house we were talking about is taking a big chance. The market is at a previous high of 10 years ago (before the big crash out here).

Certainly if you got into a house in 1987 you will have done good. Consider your equity and if you can get out, do it. Lot's of places to go with $300,000 in the bank.

[mickie]

I have been California dreaming all day long today.
Appreciation has been almost 20% here in the last year......let me know if you get transferrred back here again, LOL.

[Torie]

Actually real estate prices are not that out of line given the level of long term interest rates. If long term interest rates rise significantly, the market will collapse. The real estate market is more tied to the real interest rate of treasury inflation indexed bonds than most realize. But even now, the California market is less out of line vis a vis incomes than it was in 1990.

[getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL]

Holy Toledo!

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

The GREATER FOOL theory is just being proved.

I was quietly noticing that. Folks have NO idea of what they're about to face. If I say so, I get flamed.

[AdamSelene235]

I was quietly noticing that. Folks have NO idea of what they're about to face. If I say so, I get flamed.

And I'm going to flame you for NOT saying it.

[farmfriend]

The price of my house has doubled in the last 10 years.

[AdamSelene235]

The price of my house has doubled in the last 10 years.

And oddly so has the money supply.

[A Navy Vet]

You got that right.

[Katya]

There are other factors influencing the housing market in city/suburbs beyond what the financial markets are doing. If the city has not been in stagnation as say Buffalo, NY. older cities such as Boston are hit by the absence of available land for development. Housing remains finite in attractive close-in locations.
Over the last three years, parts of the East coast have also been effected by the drought. This meant some areas could not have perc tests done because of the water table. The backload of buyers vs. available housing further pressured the market. In the Baltimore-Washington Corridor there are builders that are doing a perc test for the first time this spring.
I would also disagree that the money comes from the same place....in urban areas buyers are more likely to resell and use equity to buy up. Older buyers sell and move away to less expensive regions, similarly utilizing equity to purchase.

[Proud_texan]

UT? I'd have to say that's on the other side of the ledger. Doggone students who don't pay taxes and have brains of mush vote green and keep the Peoples Republic of Travis in power.

This is the beginning of Austin's 2nd real estate bust in my (limited) experience, moved here in '91 and paid 30% less than the house sold for in '83.

IMO the major reason housing prices have remained high are low interest rates. They go away and not nearly as many people will qualify, shrink the qualified buyers and the market will collapse, especially for higher end houses.

It'll be ugly, but no uglier than it's been in the past. Lots of people will have to go BK (hard to find anybody that was in Austin in the 80s that didn't go BK) and it'll be a good time for ants.

Then it'll get better again, nobody will see an end to the good times and ....well, the more things change...

[unixfox]

It is in the most affordable town in the United States when it comes to housing prices.

You have to be talking about Midland Texas. Of course the prices are low, nobody wants to live there.

I did and glad I left. It was a vacuum.

[AdamSelene235]

I would also disagree that the money comes from the same place....in urban areas buyers are more likely to resell and use equity to buy up.

And the fact that GSE debt now exceed the publicly held Treasury debt is just one of those weird coincidences, right?

[anymouse]

Well the limosine liberals are getting what they deserve. They drove out businesses by the score from Austin with their demands for more taxes, more regulations and simultainiously refused to improve Austin's infra-structure.

No growth => fewer jobs => smaller tax base => falling real estate prices => forclosures => boomtown gone bust.

But the liberals in academia, government and the trust fund set don't care. In their view of Austin it only gets better when the middle class gets driven out.

BTW, Houston's real estate is still rather stable. The liberals haven't suceeded in ruining Houston, yet.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

They'll run out of fools shortly, they always do. The looming GSE crisis is going to make us long for the days of a simple S&L bailout. Kiss the bond market and baby boomer's 401k's goodbye.

Next big scandal should be real estate agency fraud. It is rampant and widespread. One in this area tried to sell me a 16-year-old doublewide on 9 acres for $125,000. Made me extremely angry. The place later sold for $77,000 which was still too much. Just the fact that the agent tried to do that is beyond description. Hand going to mouth.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

I think that we will yet see at least one more attempt by da boyz to ramp up the markets before the bottom falls out.

I believe this is what is happening too. Big boys trying to liquidate.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

If long term interest rates rise significantly, the market will collapse.

Interesting point. And, here's another interesting story:

SOME WARN OF REAL ESTATE BUBBLE

Click here for Yahoo story.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Another relevant story:

Click here for story.

[tracer]

The market is booming in the DC metro area. The title of this thread is misleading......