Posted on 02/21/2003 6:57:50 AM PST by richardtavor
Behind the scenes of the war
By Ze'ev Schiff
"The wave of demonstrations against a war in Iraq is continuing, but so is the build-up of American and British forces around Iraq. There is no better proof of this than the airlift that is passing over Israel at an impressive pace. A good many British and American aircraft are flying eastward to Jordan. Israeli officials know how many planes have overflown the country and are also able to guess what they contain. In the distant past - in 1970, and before that in 1958, before the peace agreement between Israel and Jordan - Israel allowed planes to use its airspace in order to deliver aid to the Hashemite kingdom.
What is going on behind the scenes in Jordan is characteristic, to one degree or another, of events in a number of other Arab states as well. On the one hand, they are voicing loud objections to a war, yet almost all of them share the approach that it would be a good thing to be rid of Saddam Hussein, because he is endangering the region. The young Jordanian king is especially impressive. Contrary to the position taken by his father, King Hussein, in the 1991 Gulf War, King Abdullah has come out unequivocally on the side of the United States and intends to reap the full benefits of this move. That is also a good thing for Israel, of course, in case of an Iraqi attack.
There are many signs indicating that developments are taking place behind the scenes in Iran, too. Iran undoubtedly knows of the looming attack, otherwise it would not have issued a decree prohibiting its citizens from visiting Shi'ite sacred cities in Iraq. The Iranians would like to see Saddam Hussein disappear, as he caused them serious casualties, and tactical understandings have apparently been reached between Washington and Tehran. This was also the pattern at a certain stage of the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The Iranians know a lot about what is going on inside Iraq and it is not out of the question that intelligence cooperation exists between them and the Americans. Nothing is given for free, though, and the Iranians are the last people who would not be able to take advantage of the new situation. We can only hope that the Americans will also insist that the Iranians prevent Hezbollah from opening a second front in the north of the country during the war in Iraq.
However, Washington apparently does not intend to make any concessions to the Iranians on the subject of the development of nuclear weapons in their country. The Americans will play an important part in the visit to Iran by a delegation of the International Atomic Energy Agency, led by the agency's chief, Mohammed ElBaradei, which is scheduled to begin tomorrow.
Another American move behind the scenes is taking place in connection with the French. Following the address to the United Nations Security Council by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, the Americans showed the French and the Germans additional, more classified intelligence about what they have discovered in Iraq. However, this information apparently did not make a great impression on the French, who are behaving on the basis of a pre-set policy, which affects the interpretation they place on various facts.
While the demonstrations and activities designed to foment hatred for the U.S. continued in public, behind the scenes the Americans took off the gloves. They decided to go back to the Security Council with the aim of getting a resolution passed that will enable them to use force against the Iraqis. It has been learned that in order to forestall a French veto, the Americans have warned Paris that their reaction to a veto will include rules and regulations that will be aimed against the French economy and the economic relations between the two countries. A similar American threat worked against the Japanese in the past.
In other words, Washington has told French President Jacques Chirac that as long as he focuses on demonstrations and anti-American declarations, the United States will be able to live with the situation. But that will not be the case in relation to French actions that are designed to disrupt Washington's moves in the Iraqi sphere. Now it remains to be seen how Chirac will beat his retreat and what excuses he will come up with for it.
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