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The Constitution says that judges need only a simple majority, 51 votes to be confirmed. Well, Estrada, if they call this vote, is going to get 55 and lose. That's tearing up and shredding the Constitution. We'd heard all along that the Republicans are going to hold fast, make sure the Democrats continue to filibuster until they tire of it, and President Bush said last week that he would stand by this nomination until Estrada is confirmed. Then this Fox story came along, making it look like the Republican leadership was going to give up. This caused us to get a couple phone calls, one from Senator Rick Santorum's office, and one from the office of Senator Orrin Hatch saying that the Fox News story was not totally correct, that they are not caving, and that they're going to hang tough.
GOP Senators May Call Democrat Bluff
Over the weekend, the strategery became a little clearer. I've been under the impression that if the Republicans call for a vote and lose it, it's over and Estrada is defeated. But that's not the case. Here's why: The only way you can end a filibuster is to beat it with 60 votes or to have the side conducting it give up. So the strategy here is to call a vote and lose it and call another vote and call another vote and keep making the Democrats vote against a Hispanic nominee, vote and vote and vote and vote so that these Democrats are on record time and again voting against the first Hispanic nominee to the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
Now, I don't know if this strategy will prevail, but it's thought by some that this could force the Democrats' hand. The Democrats might not even want one vote. They're just bluffing, trying to convince the Republicans they don't have 60 votes, so they shouldn't even call for the vote, because they don't want to set the precedent of a nominee needing 60 votes, whereas the Constitution says he only needs 51.
The Republican answer to this is, "Oh, yeah, fine? You guys say you have the votes, let's see them. Go ahead and vote against Estrada - then explain it your Hispanic constituents." We'll just have to wait and see if this is how it plays out, but this is the GOP Senate strategery, as I understand it. |
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