Posted on 03/05/2003 9:49:23 AM PST by Destro
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This is a transcript of The World Today broadcast at 1200 AEST on local radio.
Expert says al-Qaeda moving into Asia-Pacific region
The World Today - Wednesday, March 5, 2003 12:14
ELEANOR HALL: Well despite the denial by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, an expert on terrorism in the region is convinced that either this group or the Abu Sayyaf is behind the deadly bombings in the Philippines.
Dr Rohan Gunaratna, who's the author of Inside al-Qaeda: Global Network of Terror, says both these groups have links to al-Qaeda and that Osama bin Laden's terrorist organisation is now increasing its influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
Dr Gunaratna says the arrest of top al-Qaeda operative Khalid Sheikh Mohammed this week has dealt a blow to al-Qaeda and that money is now buying off once solid al-Qaeda members. But he warns the terrorist group is adapting to these setbacks and remains a danger, particularly in our region.
I spoke to Dr Gunaratna just before we came on air as he returned from New York to Singapore and I began by asking him about the bombings in the Philippines.
ROHAN GUNARATNA: Well, in the Philippines there are two groups that are active. One is the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the other is the Abu Sayyaf group and both these groups have links with al-Qaeda, and also with the regional terrorist network, Jemaah Islamiah. So it is very likely that one of these groups were responsible.
ELEANOR HALL: Neither has claimed responsibility yet, and indeed the Moro Liberation Front has denied responsibility.
ROHAN GUNARATNA: Well a terrorist group can always deny responsibility. Even al-Qaeda denied responsibility for many attacks. Terrorist groups are very deceptive groups and we can't believe when they deny. For instance, Moro Islamic Liberation Front has denied ties with al-Qaeda but we know that there are relationships between these two groups.
ELEANOR HALL: Either way, you're convinced that al-Qaeda is behind this in some form?
ROHAN GUNARATNA: No we cannot say it is al-Qaeda but what I would like to say is the only groups that have the capability of conducting such a terrorist attack are the Abu Sayyaf group and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
ELEANOR HALL: Now if we can look at the arrest of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, there's a suggestion from the al Jazeera journalist who interviewed him before his arrest, that he's been tracked down, not so much because of the skill of Pakistani or US intelligence and security forces, but because of division within al-Qaeda itself. Now what do you know of this?
ROHAN GUNARATNA: Well, I personally don't believe that. I believe that the reason he was apprehended was because, although he adhered to the strictest principles of security, he lived in Pakistan and there is so much of effort today in Pakistan to go after al-Qaeda members.
420 members of al-Qaeda have been arrested in Pakistan and Pakistan is an important forward base of operations for al-Qaeda and that is because they want to run a global terrorist network and they can do that only from Pakistan. So naturally he took that risk and he was apprehended.
ELEANOR HALL: Why is there such activity from the Pakistanis at the moment? Or are you saying that it's US forces operating in Pakistan?
ROHAN GUNARATNA: No it is the effort of the Pakistani intelligence community. Pakistan must be given full credit for it and of course the United States have been working very closely with the Pakistan administration, with President Musharraf.
ELEANOR HALL: Now there's also a report in the London Sun that a massive sum of money changed hands between an informant and the FBI before Khalid Sheikh Mohammed's arrest. Is this credible and does it mean that al-Qaeda's losing its appeal if money can now buy its operatives?
ROHAN GUNARATNA: Well certainly money has played a critical role in the arrest of several terrorists in the past, especially in Pakistan. We have seen even Khalid Sheikh Mohammed's nephew, Ramzi Ahmed Yousef, was arrested six years ago in Pakistan as a result of payment of informant money and money is one way of making people talk and betray colleagues and, and people they work with.
ELEANOR HALL: It seems a contradiction that al-Qaeda can be losing its strength and yet we have these attacks going on in our region. How do you reconcile those two things?
ROHAN GUNARATNA: Well a terrorist organisation, even when a terrorist group is placed under pressure, it can conduct terrorist operations. That is the nature of terrorism.
ELEANOR HALL: And Dr Gunaratna, do you think that Osama bin Laden is dead or alive?
ROHAN GUNARATNA: Certainly he is alive. In the past 30 days, he issued two statements.
ELEANOR HALL: And you think that they're absolutely genuine? There's no question in your mind?
ROHAN GUNARATNA: There is no question at all. It is his language, his message, his syntax and his intonations.
ELEANOR HALL: Given what you're saying about al-Qaeda though, are you convinced that this organisation is on the decline or do you think that it could indeed strengthen in the future?
ROHAN GUNARATNA: What we are seeing is that with sustained US and other coalition action in Pakistan and Afghanistan this group is decentralising rapidly. Its operatives, financiers, organisers of attacks are largely moving away from the core Pakistan/Afghanistan into Asia, into the Horn of Africa, Middle East, the Caucasus, the Balkans.
And we are seeing a decentralisation of the network. It is exactly like a beehive. When you hit a beehive, the bees disperse. So what we are seeing is that fleeing al-Qaeda members and al-Qaeda members who are moving with operational plans are now working with associate and local groups.
ELEANOR HALL: In that sense then it's not a reduction in the danger?
ROHAN GUNARATNA: No, certainly not. We cannot say that there is a reduction in danger because these regional and associate groups of al-Qaeda are still active. The second phase of terrorism, the second phase of anti-terrorist activity, counter-terrorist activity should focus on crippling these associate organisations.
ELEANOR HALL: Dr Rohan Gunaratna is the author of Inside Al-Qaeda: The Global Terror Network and he was speaking to us from Singapore.
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