Gallup Poll: Support for Bush Significantly Higher Among More Religious Americans

Gallup ^ | 3/6/03 | Frank Newport and Joseph Carroll

[Jean S]

Whites who are born-again and Protestant particularly likely to be Republicans and Bush supporters

PRINCETON, NJ -- The cover story on this week's Newsweek, titled "Bush and God," focuses on George W. Bush's deep religious beliefs and how they might be affecting his presidency -- and in the current environment, his foreign policy. The article reviews the history of Bush's conversion to an evangelical Protestant faith in the 1980s, and looks at the way in which Bush and his political adviser, Karl Rove, targeted the religious community in their gubernatorial election campaigns in Texas and in their 2000 presidential campaign.

The fact that this conservative and deeply religious president is a Republican, is directly in line with the overall pattern of religious beliefs in American politics. Most scholars agree that there is a substantial relationship between strong religious faith, particularly within conservative, evangelical Protestant denominations, and identification with the Republican Party. Those Americans who are less intensely religious tend to identify themselves as independents and Democrats. As Vanderbilt University political scientist Geoffrey Layman summarized in his recent book, The Great Divide: Religious and Cultural Conflict in American Party Politics, "religious conservatives from most of the major Christian traditions, but particularly among evangelical Protestants, tend to support the Republican Party, while the Democratic Party draws its support disproportionately from the ranks of religious liberals…"

A special Gallup analysis of the relationship between Americans' religiosity and their political views reinforces these findings. Protestants are more likely to be Republicans than are Catholics and those who claim no religious preference. People who say that religion is important in their daily lives, who attend church every week, and who are "born-again" are most likely to approve of the job Bush is doing as president. Furthermore, there is a particularly high probability that white Protestants who identify as born-again or evangelical are Republicans and that they approve of the job Bush is doing.

The Relationship Between Religion and Identification With the Republican Party

About 8 in 10 Americans (79%) identify with the Christian faith in one way or the other, and about half of all Americans (47%) are Protestants. Forty-one percent of Americans say they are "born again," which is a New Testament term that evangelical or fundamentalist Protestants routinely use to signify a significant conversion experience. About one in six Americans (18%) go so far as to identify with the religious right. About one in four Americans routinely tell interviewers that they have attended worship services within the last week, and 60% say that religion is very important to them in their daily lives.

Most black Americans are Protestant (largely Baptist), and the vast majority identify with the Democratic Party. For that reason, some of the analysis that follows will focus on the attitudes of white Protestants in order to provide a clearer picture of the relationship between religion and politics, without the complicating factor of race.

Since Bush took office in January 2001, Gallup has asked Americans about their religious attitudes in five different polls.

One basic finding: Protestants are somewhat more likely to be Republicans than Catholics are and substantially more likely to be Republicans than are those who claim no religious preference. The relationship between identifying with a Protestant denomination and being Republican is particularly strong among whites:

Party Identification Based on Aggregate of Five Gallup Polls Conducted February 2001-February 2003
	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
	%	%	%
Religious Preference
All Protestants	40	28	32	=100%
White Protestants	46	28	26	=100%
Black Protestants	10	26	64	=100%
Catholic	33	34	33	=100%
No religion	13	58	29	=100%

Additionally, the data show clearly that -- everything else being equal -- religious Americans are more likely to say they are Republicans than to say they are Democrats or independents:

Party Identification Based on Aggregate of Five Gallup Polls Conducted February 2001-February 2003
	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
	%	%	%
Total Sample	35	33	32	=100%
Importance of Religion
Very	38	29	33	=100%
Fairly	32	36	32	=100%
Not very	25	47	28	=100%
Attend Church in the Past Seven Days
Yes	42	27	31	=100%
No	29	38	33	=100%
Born-again or Evangelical
Yes	41	28	31	=100%
No	30	38	32	=100%

Roughly 4 in 10 Americans who say religion is very important in their daily lives, have attended church in the past week, or describe themselves as born-again or evangelical say they are Republicans. People who say religion is not important in their daily lives, who have not attended church within the last week, and who do not describe themselves as born again are significantly less likely to be Republicans.

The table below displays the party identification of Americans by race and born-again status. The results reflect the strong tendency for blacks to identify with the Democratic Party. The percentage of whites who are born-again and identify as Republicans is 48%, compared with only 12% of born-again blacks. Almost two-thirds of born-again blacks are Democrats.

Furthermore, when the group of born-again whites is further reduced to just those who are Protestant, their identification with the Republican Party increases to 51%, with the rest splitting about equally between independents and Democrats:

Party Identification Based on Aggregate of Five Gallup Polls Conducted February 2001-February 2003
	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
	%	%	%
Whites
Born-again or Evangelical
Yes	48	28	24	=100%
No	32	38	30	=100%
Blacks
Born-again or Evangelical
Yes	12	24	64	=100%
No	6	36	58	=100%
Whites, Born-Again, and Protestants	51	25	24	=100%
All Others	29	36	35	=100%

The Relationship Between Religion and President Bush's Job Approval

Given the fact that there is a strong tendency for those who are religious, Protestant, white, and born-again to be Republican, it is not surprising to find that these types of individuals are also more likely to approve of the job Bush is doing as president.

The graphs below display the trend over time in Bush job approval among groups of Americans broken out by these various religious variables. During the time period represented in the graph -- from February 2001 (just after Bush first took office) to February of this year -- the overall levels of Bush job approval changed significantly, reflecting the sharp increase in approval after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Still, as is clear, the basic relationship between religiosity (as measured in these variables) and approval of the job Bush is doing as president has held constant across the entire first two years of his administration:

George W. Bush Job Approval and
the Importance of Religion

George W. Bush Job Approval and
Church Attendance in the Past Seven Days

George W. Bush Job Approval and
Whites Who Are Born-Again or Evangelical

George W. Bush Job Approval and
Whites Who Are Protestant

George W. Bush Job Approval and
Whites Who Are Born-Again and Protestant

The basic conclusions:

• Those for whom religion is not very important are significantly less likely to approve of the job Bush is doing than those for whom religion is either fairly or very important.

• Those who have attended church within the last seven days are more likely to approve of the job Bush is doing than those who did not.

• White Protestants are much more likely than others to approve of the job Bush is doing.

• Whites who are born-again, and in particular white born-again Protestants, give Bush much higher job approval ratings than do others. In the most recent Gallup Poll, the difference between these two groups is 23 percentage points.

Survey Methods

The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 5,055 adults, aged 18 and older, from five polls conducted between February 2001 and February 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±2 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

George W. Bush Job Approval and Attitudes of Whites Who Are Protestants
	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
	%	%	%
White, Born-Again Protestants
2003 Feb 17-19	69	27	4	=100%
2002 Dec 9-11	70	26	4	=100%
2002 Mar 18-20	85	10	5	=100%
2001 Dec 14-16	91	7	2	=100%
2001 Feb 19-21	71	17	12	=100%
All Others
2003 Feb 17-19	50	44	6	=100%
2002 Dec 9-11	59	36	5	=100%
2002 Mar 18-20	75	20	5	=100%
2001 Dec 14-16	81	15	4	=100%
2001 Feb 19-21	53	25	22	=100%

George W. Bush Job Approval and Attitudes of Whites Who Are Born-Again or Evangelical
	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
	%	%	%
Whites Who Are Born-Again
2003 Feb 17-19	74	22	4	=100%
2002 Dec 9-11	71	25	4	=100%
2002 Mar 18-20	88	8	4	=100%
2001 Dec 14-16	93	5	2	=100%
2001 Feb 19-21	76	12	12	=100%
All Others
2003 Feb 17-19	50	45	5	=100%
2002 Dec 9-11	60	35	5	=100%
2002 Mar 18-20	74	20	6	=100%
2001 Dec 14-16	82	14	4	=100%
2001 Feb 19-21	53	27	20	=100%

George W. Bush Job Approval and Attitudes of Whites Who Are Born-Again and Protestant
	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
	%	%	%
White, Born-Again Protestants
2003 Feb 17-19	75	22	3	=100%
2002 Dec 9-11	72	23	5	=100%
2002 Mar 18-20	87	7	6	=100%
2001 Dec 14-16	94	5	1	=100%
2001 Feb 19-21	79	13	8	=100%
All Others
2003 Feb 17-19	52	42	6	=100%
2002 Dec 9-11	61	35	4	=100%
2002 Mar 18-20	76	19	5	=100%
2001 Dec 14-16	83	13	4	=100%
2001 Feb 19-21	55	25	20	=100%

George W. Bush Job Approval and Religion Based on Percent Who Approve of Bush
	All Adults	Whites who are Protestant	Whites who are born-again	Whites who are born-again and Protestant
	%	%	%	%
Approve of Bush
2003 Feb 17-19	58	69	74	75
2002 Dec 9-11	63	70	71	72
2002 Mar 18-20	79	85	88	87
2001 Dec 14-16	86	91	93	94
2001 Feb 19-21	62	71	76	79

[McGavin999]

Funny, I don't remember them doing a poll like this about Clinton, do you?

[EternalVigilance]

This polling rates a big 'DUH'...I could have told them this for half the money they spent to gather it...LOL

[JohnHuang2]

Funny, I don't remember them doing a poll like this about Clinton, do you?

hmmmmm, I sure don't. Bias? Nah!

[JohnHuang2]

lol

[Texas_Jarhead]

interesting BUMP

[nickcarraway]

It's nice that they still allow religious people to vote. How long before people of religion voting is a ``violation of the separation of church and state?''

[Tamzee]

They missed a some big obvious areas in their "research".... that folks with religious beliefs tend to have very strong feelings about right versus wrong and a strong family unit. If they did these polls again and asked those questions instead of religious stance, they would have gotten the same pretty pictures. Liberals, no matter their religious leaning, tend to blame the government for "wrong", take all credit for anything "right" and support anti-family government issues.

Pitiful research....and the liberals will jump right on it to discredit Bush as a religious fanatic :-(

[FirstTomato]

There is extreme hostility and intolerance and bigotry against Christians in many many places on the Web, reflective of the mistreatment of Christians around the world.

The left would love to replace Christianity and Judaism with the worship of pyschologists, social workers, communist worker propaganda, socialism and womyn's mythic philosophies. Oops! It already has, in the public schools of this nation.

[Torie]

Good point that religious intensity is correlated with much else, such as married women versus single women. It would take a regression analysis and a huge sample to sort out which variables are doing what to whom. Still, given the current state of play, religiousity is an important factor at the moment in partisan preference. It was less so in the past, and may be so again in the future.

[Mo1]

Nope and it's a pretty detailed one at that

[JohnHuang2]

The Beltway news media is all abuzz over NEWSWEEK's bombshell cover story -- a devastating account of a mushrooming White House scandal which, till now, only lurked below the surface.

Face it: Every White House, sooner or later, gets hit with 'The Big One' -- a major scandal -- and I'm afraid, for Bush, this may be it.

As far as White House scandals, you probably think you've heard and seen 'em all, I bet. Presidential perjury, obstruction of justice, selling the White House, stealing the White House, trashing the White House, pardons-for-sale, vandalism, larceny, embezzlement, seduction of interns -- we got all these and more under the most ethical administration in history alone.

Well, ya ain't heard nothing yet, folks.

Get a load of this: "George W. Bush rises ahead of the dawn most days," writes NEWSWEEK reporter Howard Fineman, and "he goes off to a quiet place to read alone."

Reading alone -- that's the Big Scandal?

Wrong. What's he reading, ummmm?

Detective Fineman lays out the damaging details rocking the White House tonight: "His text isn't news summaries or the overnight intelligence dispatches...It's not recreational reading...IT'S A BOOK OF EVANGELICAL MINI-SERMONS," Oswald Chambers', '"My Utmost for His Highest"!

Scary stuff, yes, but that's not all.

"This presidency" Fineman continues in his tale of White House horrors, "is the most resolutely 'faith-based' in modern times, an enterprise founded, supported and guided by trust in the temporal and spiritual power of God."

Brace yourself, here's the bombshell revelation: "The Bush administration is dedicated to the idea that there is an answer to societal problems here and to terrorism abroad: give everyone, everywhere, the freedom to find God, too."

Bush is a born-again Christian! And he prays, too! And he reads the Bible!

While the White House may have weathered initial blows from these startling revelations, the bottom line is the bottom line: Bush is way, way TOO CHRISTIAN, say the newsies!

But wait: "An envoy sent by Pope John Paul on Wednesday," Reuters reports, "urged President George W. Bush to avoid war and work with the United Nations to seek a peaceful resolution to the Iraqi crisis."

Cardinal Pio Laghi, during his private meeting with the President, conveyed a letter from the Pope which read in part, "I ask the Lord to inspire you to search for a way to a stable peace, the noblest of human endeavors."

Reuters: "Asked whether he had persuaded Bush to rule out war as an outcome to the Iraqi situation, Laghi said: 'You have to ask him.'"

The answer, in other words, was NO! Bush told the Pope no!

So now the media says BUSH ISN'T CHRISTIAN ENOUGH!

So the week began with the media griping and fussing and carping that Bush was too Christian for the job, that his fervent faith only alienates Muslims and the Arab world.

But here we are, barely four days later, and Bush gets slammed for not being fervent enough in keeping with Christian principles and faith.

Don't ya love such displays of unflinching consistency from our rabidly fair-minded, detached and objective news media?

But mull this one over: With the very public Bush-Pope split on Iraq, claims in the Arab world that Bush is a crusader -- a notion NEWSWEEK sought to stoke with it's Bush and God cover story -- will ring more hollow than ever.

Anyway, that's...
My two cents...
"JohnHuang2"

[WKB]

Reads like this are why you got my vote!!

[JohnHuang2]

Thanks :^)

[WKB]

Why are we both up at this hour? I woke up to go to the BR and had to freep a little!

[JohnHuang2]

Why are we both up at this hour?

I ask myself that question every morning, around this time...hehe