(3/15/03) Breaking: ABC's Bob Brinker is calling last Tuesday the Stock Market bottom!!

[Partisan Hack]

As of yesterday (friday) he is back to being FULLY INVESTED. He went on to say that all of the sellers are out of the market and he sees considerable upside gains from here.

[Cicero]

Well if he's right, more power to him. But with most of the developed world suffering economic problems at the same time--Germany down the tubes, Japan down the tubes, China sucking money in and giving nothing out--I will be very surprised if we can recover from that huge clinton bubble and our huge balance of payment deficits without going through a lot more pain first.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a big bear-market rally at some point, when the Iraq war is over. But a bull market, no.

I'd be delighted if he's right, because no one enjoys economic hard times. But I doubt it.

[arete]

Brinker has not been kind to Greenspan in the last 3 years, in case you didn't know.

True, Brinker has been critical of Greenspan. So have I. What do you conclude from that?

Richard W.

[Iowegian]

I'm not concluding anything. I'm just telling you in case you didn't know, as I stated.

[Iowegian]

I'll place my bets on the imminent S&P 500 waterfall.

Because you are always so optimistic?

[AntiGuv]

Well, not precisely. I don't revel in pessimism just for the sheer joy of it. Historical market behavior evidences that a secular bear market floor is reached under three general circumstances, which in this case coordinate to strongly suggest that the post-Nineties floor has not been reached.

1) A post-bubble market retraces approximately five years of market gains prior to the preceding peak of the market bubble. Since the S&P 500 peaked in mid-January 2000, the target floor would be in the vicinity of mid-January 1995 levels: approximately 465 on the S&P (800 - Nasdaq; 3930 - Dow).

2) Historical bear market floors have arrived when the average P/E ratio reaches a trough between 7-12, with most near the lower end of the threshold (iirc, the 1966 trough was the only one at the upper end). Granted, this does not guarantee an inflection point, since a P/E average of 7 or 9 in 1931 was followed by nearly two more years of share price declines.

3) A classic capitulation manifests after a series of so-called 90-90 days: "when downside volume equals 90 percent or more of the sum of upside volume plus downside volume, and points lost equal 90 percent or more of the sum of points gained and points lost." I believe we've only had three of those, post-bubble, interspersed over several years time.

In the absence of these indicative factors, the market remains far too overvalued and undersold by historical standards to permit anything resembling a bull market cycle to take wings. Until something resembling these conditions prevails over the markets, then one should reasonably assume that any upward movement reflects a secular bear market countertrend rally and nothing more.

[Iowegian]

I don't revel in pessimism just for the sheer joy of it.

That's good to hear, some here do seem to revel in pessimism. Charts are for suckers.

[Iowegian]

Until something resembling these conditions prevails over the markets, then one should reasonably assume that any upward movement reflects a secular bear market countertrend rally and nothing more.

Brinker is basically saying it is a countertrend rally in a secular bear market. He has said that the secular bear could last up to 10 years, but the countertrend rallies within them can still be significant.

[jwh_Denver]

Soon, time will tell as to the wisdom of each's forecast. Places your bets here!

He's FOS on the bottom of the market. I've heard him a number of times and when he gives out equity advice I cringe. If you want to follow his advice then I suggest you do a lot of homework first because intermediate and long term this market is going down.

So what are the bets?

[Fractal Trader]

Not that I necessarily believe in Brinker's methods, I still would tend to agree with him relative to the alternative that we are poised for a greater fall.

[laureldrive]

Brinker has not been kind to Greenspan in the last 3 years, in case you didn't know.

That recommends Brinker in my book

[woooodrow]

"Well, his subscribers received his call when the S & P was at 844. But he did call us out of the market near the top of the bubble. He saved my families retirement and my son's college education. The people I know who did not leave the market realize now that a long term bear market is the price for those years of 20 %+ growth.

Bob believes the current bull will be short lived (1-3 years) and will have to call the top as well to "beat the street". Bob has been more successful at calling bottoms than tops IMO. I am following him somewhat guardedly because he also made a QQQ call that was all wrong. (Although to his credit he advised people to hold after the call and maybe they will get their money back over the next two years."

Well this subscriber got the eletronic bulletin off his web page about 30 minutes after the market open on 3/11. Been invested 100% since midday Tuesday and couldn't be happier. On a down note for folks without internet access I have not received the hard copy through USPS snail mail yet. BB rocks!

Wood

[728b]

I have not read all the responses, but the market bottom could not possibly have been last Tuesday, since the markets were lower in Oct of last year. ABC once again exposes themselves as morons.

[RightWhale]

I am following him somewhat guardedly because he also made a QQQ call that was all wrong.

Same here. Trying to spot a short term rally in a bear market is a dangerous way to make a living. But he sees something substantial now, and it has little to do with the war. I will hang onto my Ginnie Mae shares a while longer, but the time for jumping into these these is probably past.

[Meldrim]

Having looked at Bob Brinker's background, I can now safely call Bob Brinker a Draft Dodger. Do the research for yourself.

[Partisan Hack]

What brought you back to this thread?

[Joe Hadenuf]

I'd rather juggle chain saws that put my money in the stock market.....I just don't have the stomach for that kind of roller coaster.....

[RightWhale]

Thanks, I tried to listen to his show but rehearsal went late. I also think we are at a wide and shallow bottom.

[Doohickey]

Especially that Dutch kid with the ice skates.

[RightWhale]

He mentions I-bonds and mutual funds when the caller is totally unwilling to endure any risk.

[Redcloak]

Be that as it may, looking back, I'd say that he was right about the market finding its bottom back then...