Posted on 03/19/2003 11:42:26 PM PST by Wallaby
Action likely an attempt to end showdown quickly
WASHINGTON
America's predawn attack on what Pentagon officials called "leadership targets' in Baghdad was a bold and unexpected beginning to President Bush's even bolder campaign to disarm Iraq and install democracy in place of Saddam Hussein's brutal dictatorship.
After months of preparing America, Iraq and the world for a devastating air and ground blitzkreig, Bush switched signals at the last minute and attempted to kill Saddam, his sons and his most trusted aides in an effort to spare thousands of other lives American, allied and Iraqi.
Even after Saddam appeared on Iraqi television this morning, it was unclear if the address was live or taped or if the attack had killed any of Iraq's top leaders.
Intelligence officials predicted that even if Saddam were dead, Iraqi officials would try to conceal the fact from their countrymen and the world. And although clandestine American teams have been eavesdropping on Iraqi communications and prowling around Iraq for more than a month, intelligence officials concede that sighting Saddam isn't easy, in part because he employs body doubles and rarely sleeps in the same place two nights in a row.
Nevertheless, the president and his top aides concluded in an Oval Office meeting Wednesday afternoon that killing the Iraqi leader, and perhaps also his sons Uday and Qusay and the top members of his Revolutionary Command Council, was worth a try. If they succeeded, said a senior administration official, the entire Iraqi military not just its ill-equipped and demoralized conscript army, might fold without a fight.
That would spare American troops the danger of facing chemical and biological weapons and the unpleasant prospect of house-to-house fighting in Baghdad and other Iraqi cities. Just as important, Bush and his aides decided, it might spare Iraq thousands of civilian casualties, deaths that Muslim radicals could use to recruit new terrorists. It also might avoid a spasm of revenge killings, untold economic and environmental damage and civil wars that could tear the country apart and unnerve its neighbors.
"It might be the most brilliant war plan that has ever been devised,' said retired Adm. Leighton Smith, a former commander of U.S. naval forces in Europe and former commander of NATO forces in southern Europe.
He said that if the quick attempt to decapitate the regime failed, the United States could go back to the "shock-and-awe' approach.
"Wouldn't it be wonderful if all of this came to a conclusion without a massive strike? I don't know if it can.'
Neither did Bush, CIA Director George Tenet, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Colin Powell, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice and others who helped put the strike plan together in about five hours.
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No Iraqi commander will likely use biological or chemical weapons if he thinks there is a chance Saddam is dead. There is no way to use the excuse "Saddam made me do it!" if Saddam was dead when they did it.
The last time Saddam stayed in a bomb proof shelter. If he was in such a place we may have just removed all means of communications. That would mean that Saddam would have to leave the bunker to find a place with communications so he can communicate with his troops. If we did not announce the attempt, he would not have to prove he is still alive.
The best case is we got him. The worst case is Saddam has prove to his forces that he still exists. That would leave him open to another attempt.
IF Saddam, is dead or even if some of his commanders just think he is dead, it will lesson the risk to our ground troops.
Very plausible -- thanks.
First strike targeted 5 top level Iraqis at meeting.
Reporting explosions in northern Kuwait. ? two Iraqi missile land on I/K border. May have been knocked out of sky.
One commentator earlier said that Franks called an audible while on the line of scrimmage.
Top notch coverage and commentary on Fox tonight.
The CIA said it believed Saddam and "the most senior levels of the Iraqi leadership" were cloistered in a private residence in southern Baghdad and would be there for some hours.
I had heard Mosul, too, on FOX news but the article says a bunker in southern Baghdad.
I've mentioned on other threads that I suspect that all those rumors about Tariq having attempted to escape (he's heading for the border, he's been captured, he's being interrogated, he's been shot) was disinformation put out by either the CIA or special forces in an attempt to flush him out. Since Tariq is usually the one we see talking to reporters, and the last thing he would want is for the troops to be demoralized by rumors that a senior leader has escaped, wouldn't it make sense that he would make a public appearance and announce that, no, he hadn't attempted to escape and was right there in Baghdad. Bingo. He's tagged by CIA/special forces, and possibly leads them to Hussein (or at least, he's been made and followed as one of the five on the target list). I think he's dead along with Hussein and sons.
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