[StonyMan451]

I don't know whether or not it'll go pandemic "for sure", but the nominal death rate, 4%, will certainly rise dramatically if it does. The 4% rate is based on there being lots of available hospital beds and ventilators.

As it stands, 80-90% of the people who get the disease become seriously/critically ill. The reason the death rate's so low is that they can be supported by ventilators, etc., until their body rallies its defenses and overcomes the pathogen.

[Nov3]

The 4% rate is based on there being lots of available hospital beds and ventilators.

Hopefully it won't get bad enough to overwhelm the the hospitals. Oh I think the 4% death rate depends on China accurately reporting the outcomes of their cases. I think that is highly doubtful.

[Cold Heat]

Exactly! The facilities would become totally overloaded. Anti virals would deplete. It could be bad, especially for the elderly and very young.

[Kozak]

After 3--7 days, a lower respiratory phase begins with the onset of a dry, nonproductive cough or dyspnea, which might be accompanied by or progress to hypoxemia. In 10%--20% of cases, the respiratory illness is severe enough to require intubation and mechanical ventilation. The case-fatality rate among persons with illness meeting the current WHO case definition of SARS is approximately 3%.

Where are you getting this 80 to 90% serious to critically ill number? As the CDC site notes only 10 to 20% need ventilatory support. I have seen nothing in the literature to support the numbers you site. Come on folks, yes we have a new disease, yes it can be serious and yes some people die from it. It's not the end of the world as we know it.