Mystery Virus Cases Rising (BIG INCREASE ALERT)

The Australian ^ | March 31, 2003

[EternalHope]

Mystery virus cases rising From correspondents in Hong Kong 31mar03

HONG KONG took drastic new measures today to combat a killer pneumonia as nearly 100 more cases were reported in the territory amid growing disruption to travel and business across Asia.

The increasingly fraught battle to contain Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome came as the US authorities warned the virus could be more contagious than first thought and advised against travel to parts of Asia. The mysterious illness has now infected more than 1600 people in 15 countries and killed at least 59 people.

It erupted in southern China, spread to Hong Kong and has been taken worldwide by airline passengers.

The Hong Kong authorities today isolated an entire housing block for 10 days in an attempt to control the epidemic after 213 people on the estate were found to be infected - a rise of 92 overnight.

The virus has now killed 13 people and infected nearly 630 in the city, and Health Secretary Yeoh Eng-kiong said the Amoy Gardens estate was put in isolation because the authorities were alarmed by the "huge increase" in cases.

Yeoh said no hypothesis had been ruled out in the battle against SARS, raising the possibility of a newly-mutated form of the virus that could undergo airborne transmission or survive extended periods of time on open surfaces.

Over the weekend the US Centres for Disease Control said the virus could move freely through the air and contaminate an object for as many as three hours. It also warned US citizens to avoid affected areas.

During the isolation period at Amoy Gardens, no-one will be allowed to enter or leave the estate without express permission in writing of a health officer.

Medical personnel will visit residents, who will be given three meals a day free of charge as well as help and advice to clean and disinfect their flats.

A quarantine law invoked by Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa last Thursday as part of tougher measures to contain the respiratory illness, which included the closure of all schools until April 6, took effect today.

The SARS outbreak is causing growing unease in the former British colony, emptying restaurants and shopping malls, and forcing most residents to wear face masks in public.

The authorities have been disinfecting streets and public facilities and cleansed 160 public housing estates yesterday as part of efforts to combat the spread of the virus.

The outbreak is also starting to impact on airlines across Asia who have begun cancelling or rearranging schedules as demand for tickets to affected areas such as mainland China, Hong Kong and Vietnam plunges.

Meanwhile health officials in Canada's largest province, Ontario, confirmed yesterday a fourth victim of SARS, which was brought into the country by a traveller returning from a family visit to Hong Kong.

In Singapore, the Ministry of Health announced the island state's third death from SARS yesterday.

The latest deaths bring the worldwide toll from SARS to 59, with 34 deaths in China, 13 in Hong Kong, four in Vietnam, four in Canada, three in Singapore and one in Thailand.

Fears of further transmission of the disease to Taiwan prompted Taipei to yesterday propose cancelling a fledgling scheme that allows semi-direct links with rival China.

Direct links between the two, severed after a 1949 Chinese civil war, were restored on a limited basis in 2000 via intermediary islands.

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[bonesmccoy]

What the hell is your definition of a global health emergency?

You guys are a bunch of UN loving whackos.

Get off your pathetic WHO bandwagon (or get off those tin foil hats).

[bonesmccoy]

damn straight!

At least one person on this board is not a UN loving, WHO stooge.

[geopyg]

Thanks for the info - might be time to make sure I got some chicken noodle soup in the kitchen!

[bonesmccoy]

YOU are an ignorant fool for believeing this WHO gibberish.

As a board certified physician and someone who deals with infectious disease daily, SARS is the last thing for me to be concerned of... the priorities RIGHT NOW should be on vector control to address West Nile Virus.

But, somehow our liberal media won't cover a KNOWN virus with KNOWN vector and KNOWN deceased.

That same media would rather scare the hell out of innocent American citizens with talk of biological catastrophe (when the data CLEARLY shows that this is NOT an emergency).

There is no comparing the spread of Norwalk-virus on cruise ships and SARS.

But, then again, why am I wasting my breathe on you... after all ... you're just going to IGNORE the facts.

[nopardons]

Historical FACTS are our FRIENDS ; no matter whether they pertain to disease, battles, or anything else. I do my utmost, to post F-A-C-T-S , whenever I see the ill-educated spewing junk on FR. :-)

Thank YOU for posting facts ( especially medical ones ) on FR.

[bonesmccoy]

You are quite welcome...

The idiot that keeps posting these "SARS" reports is acting as a stooge for the WHO... which is a UN health agency with tight ties to the French.

yeah... the same French who sent Anthrax to Saddam in 1998.

Thanks M. Chirac!

[nopardons]

Ignore bones, at your own peril.

You're afraid for you mother and that's understandable; however, the ASIAN FLU, in 1957 was far more serious; so was the SPANISH FLU of 1919, which killed vast numbers. SARS hasn't killed off as many people, as those who get killed here, by various means, on a single day. This is NO world wide pandemic; not by any stretch of the imagination.

[bonesmccoy]

well it's GD irritating to have to respond to these idiotic postings every night.

Lessismore is doing more harm and less good with these postings.

I am usually not very adamant about the statements of others on this board... but the more junk I see on SARS, the more convinced I am that it is primarily a fabrication by those who are convinced that the UN needs to survive.

The liberal democrats are attempting to prevent the extermination of the UN by making a "health" argument.

The reality is that the WHO is routinely used to push socialist agendas in America's healthcare system, including:
1. Advocacy for centralized reporting of contagious/infectious diseases to centralized databases (including Sexually transmitted diseases, heart disease, cancer, etc. but EXCLUDING HIV status); and
2. Advocacy for routine and easily accessible abortion

[bonesmccoy]

shoot all you want... you're still wrong on "SARS"... and I seriously doubt that you have a broader range of technical experience than I do... nevertheless, our CV's are irrelevant... the fact of the matter is that you can not defend the scientific rationale used by the WHO to declare this "Global health alert".

Can you?

If so, please post (so far every one of you lame WHO supporters have FAILED to respond to my request in previous SARS threads).

Or, instead, will you simply choose to evaporate into the cyber ether and run away again???

[stlnative]

YOU are an ignorant fool for believeing this WHO gibberish. As a board certified physician and someone who deals with infectious disease daily.

You are a board certified physician, who obiviously does not know how to talk to people in a respectful way and has way too much time on their hands to be cutting down folks on FR... I am glad you are not my physician.

[nopardons]

Yes, I know. : -(

[nopardons]

You haven't a medical background, nor do YOU have even a tenuous grasp of historical pandemics. The ONLY thing, that YOu and your ilk are doing, is akin to sitting around a campfire, late at night and telling each other the equivilant of URBAN LEGENDS !

[hole_n_one]

Damn that hole_n_one!

[bonesmccoy]

If the virus is as bad as you state, I would agree with you that the disease would be concerning.

however, I would point that:
1. An index SARS case was sitting in an airplane on an intercontinental flight between Singapore and NYC and second flight from NYC to Germany. No other cases of SARS have emerged from the flight (including flight attendants who were obviously in direct contact with the passenger and family members that presumably all had the disease).

2. SARS DOES NOT HAVE A 4% mortality rate.

This disease was first ID'd in November. If the disease succesfully infects 100 percent of all contacts (which it doesn't), let us do the math for mortality:


For example:
According to http://www.demographia.com/db-guangzhou.htm
Urbanized Area of Guangzhou has a population of 2,916,400
Let's just call it 3 Million people.

The disease first emerged in November.

According to the latest ProMed WHO report
The incubation time is thought to be 7-10 days.
There are a total of 806 cases and 34 deaths in China.

Assume all 34 deaths have occurred in Guangzhou's urban areas (population 3 million)

If you assume 1 index case at the end of November, then you have Dec, Jan, Feb, March (or about 16 weeks).

If you assume that the virus is multiplying quickly (7 days incubation rather than 10), you have 16 generations of spread.

Assume that 10 people per day are contacted by the index case and all 10 are new each day.

10 x 7 days = 70 people

Week
1 1 case
2 70 cases
3 70 * 70 = 4900
4 70 * 4900 = 343000
5 70 * 343000 = 2.4 million

Some how your assumption doesn't pan out.

Apparently the French, the WHO, and the UN haven't done the fricking math.

by my math that's 70 exponent 16 =

[Major Matt Mason]

The Buffalo Sabres are on a 4 game win streak despite the fact that two players are under "quarantine" for having been in contact with someone who was exposed to someone with SARS

Too bad they didn't quarantine them earlier in the season. Warrener has been terrible this season, and Campbell only recently has started looking like an NHL player. Hope they are clean, though.

[stlnative]

Just exactly what did I do to you for you to make a comment to me like this? What the hell is wrong with you people lately? Did I respond to you at all...? Did I give you reason to attack me with such a comment? What the hell did I say to invite such comment from Bones on his first comment? My post was not me crying that the sky is falling... or that SARS is severe problem, I only stated how it was affecting me and that it was basically a long stretch that it would affect my mother. Yes I am somewhat concerned, only due to the fact that my mothers boss is in China and could possibly come back with SARS without feeling the affects of it right away and may return to work. He works with my mother in small enclosed lab. I think some of you are just ineffective at getting your point across by attacking people or being smart a$$es with your replies. If you want to get your point across stop telling people they are ignorant fools or have a mental problems. Yes I said to Ignore Bones due to the way he comes across in his posts.

[InShanghai]

Everyone has their own opinion about the WHO, the UN, or about SARS. Admittedly, the SARS bell ringing probably does not compare to the ASIAN FLU of 1957 or the SPANISH FLU of 1919, however in those times people could not communicate or identify what was killing them as quickly as we can today.

By the time those epidemics were in full swing, it was too late. The good thing about what the WHO and CDC are doing is the fact that they are trying to get information out to health care workers to try and prevent an epidemic, if it comes to those proportions. What we are trying to do here is gather information and have the best defense in case it does become an epidemic.

The fact that the liberal media will *sensationalize* a story is widely known. What is your take on the "rationale used by the WHO to declare this "Global health alert"?